Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Is there a bubble in the art market?

07.01.2016

Researchers at the University of Luxembourg are warning of an overheating art market, one of the fastest-growing investment sectors of the past decade, after applying a new bubble detection method analysing millions of auction records.

Few sectors of the market have rebounded as robustly as art – particularly contemporary art, which has doubled in value since the beginning of the financial recovery following the 2008/09 financial market crisis.


Graph showing the dip in the art market in the early 1990s as well as the striking recovery following the 2008/09 crisis, based on the top 500 artists, compared to gold, real estate, S&P index

Luxembourg School of Finance

Pundits on the side-lines have commented that such market growth is unsustainable, warning there is a bubble in the making that is sure to burst, as seen in the early 1990s and in 2008/09. Headline-grabbing sales of post-war and contemporary works for over $100 million appear to support this argument. But is a bubble really forming?

Market bubbles are generally defined as a dramatic escalation in the volume of trading in assets at prices that exceed their fundamental value, followed by a sudden collapse. Rational expectations put the fundamental value of an asset as equal to its expected discounted cash flow.

For most assets it is relatively easy to project this value – for example through dividends on stocks or rent on real estate. In the case of art, however, returns can rarely be correlated to costs of production.

To overcome this fundamental issue, Dr Roman Kräussl, Prof. Thorsten Lehnert and Dr Nicolas Martelin, all from the Luxembourg School of Finance at the University of Luxembourg, have used a new and direct statistical method of bubble detection.

They analysed more than one million auction records from the past 36 years, examining six major art styles.

They were thereby able to identify two historical speculative bubbles and find an explosive movement in today’s “Impressionist and Modern”, “Post-War and Contemporary”, “American” and “Old Masters” fine art market segments. In their research, published in the Journal of Empirical Finance, they conclude that today’s art market shows sign of overheating, raising the potential of a severe correction in the foreseeable future.

Weitere Informationen:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539815001085 - Link to the publication
http://wwwen.uni.lu/recherche/fdef/luxembourg_school_of_finance_research_in_fina... - Personal page of Prof. Roman Kräussl

Britta Schlüter | idw - Informationsdienst Wissenschaft

Further reports about: Luxembourg bubble real estate speculative bubbles stocks

More articles from Business and Finance:

nachricht The RWI/ISL-Container Throughput Index started off well in 2018
22.02.2018 | RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

nachricht RWI/ISL-Container Throughput Index ending 2017 on a positive note
24.01.2018 | RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

All articles from Business and Finance >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Developing reliable quantum computers

International research team makes important step on the path to solving certification problems

Quantum computers may one day solve algorithmic problems which even the biggest supercomputers today can’t manage. But how do you test a quantum computer to...

Im Focus: In best circles: First integrated circuit from self-assembled polymer

For the first time, a team of researchers at the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) for Polymer Research in Mainz, Germany, has succeeded in making an integrated circuit (IC) from just a monolayer of a semiconducting polymer via a bottom-up, self-assembly approach.

In the self-assembly process, the semiconducting polymer arranges itself into an ordered monolayer in a transistor. The transistors are binary switches used...

Im Focus: Demonstration of a single molecule piezoelectric effect

Breakthrough provides a new concept of the design of molecular motors, sensors and electricity generators at nanoscale

Researchers from the Institute of Organic Chemistry and Biochemistry of the CAS (IOCB Prague), Institute of Physics of the CAS (IP CAS) and Palacký University...

Im Focus: Hybrid optics bring color imaging using ultrathin metalenses into focus

For photographers and scientists, lenses are lifesavers. They reflect and refract light, making possible the imaging systems that drive discovery through the microscope and preserve history through cameras.

But today's glass-based lenses are bulky and resist miniaturization. Next-generation technologies, such as ultrathin cameras or tiny microscopes, require...

Im Focus: Stem cell divisions in the adult brain seen for the first time

Scientists from the University of Zurich have succeeded for the first time in tracking individual stem cells and their neuronal progeny over months within the intact adult brain. This study sheds light on how new neurons are produced throughout life.

The generation of new nerve cells was once thought to taper off at the end of embryonic development. However, recent research has shown that the adult brain...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

2nd International Conference on High Temperature Shape Memory Alloys (HTSMAs)

15.02.2018 | Event News

Aachen DC Grid Summit 2018

13.02.2018 | Event News

How Global Climate Policy Can Learn from the Energy Transition

12.02.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

Stiffness matters

22.02.2018 | Life Sciences

Magnetic field traces gas and dust swirling around supermassive black hole

22.02.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

First evidence of surprising ocean warming around Galápagos corals

22.02.2018 | Earth Sciences

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>