Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Wayward Winds - Predicting The Output Of Wind Parks

25.10.2010
For the first time, scientists are comparing methods for predicting the power output of wind parks in Austria.

The project, supported by the Austrian Science Fund FWF, thus creates a basis for optimised forecasts of wind park outputs - forecasts that can be used to make better decisions about which measures to take to ensure the need for power is met.

The project focuses on forecasts for periods from six hours up to ten days. In addition to reliability, the temporal and spatial resolution of the different methods is analysed. The scientists also evaluate to what extent these methods are able to calculate the probability that these forecasts come true.

Natural energy sources are fickle. It is a problem that is manageable in hydropower, however the generation of electricity using wind or solar power is very sensitive to changes in the weather. These circumstances are made even more difficult by the growing proportion of "green electricity" in the total production of electricity. Indeed, electricity suppliers must be able to guarantee an agreed-upon supply despite this uncertainty in power generation. They therefore need accurate forecasting methods. A team at the University of Innsbruck, Austria has now begun to look for such methods for predicting power generation by wind parks in Austria.

GENERATING DATA ON POWER GENERATION
Prof. Georg Mayr, head of the team at the Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, comments on the study method: "Put simply, we test all methods to see how well they can establish the connection between two data sets. Weather forecasting data and data from several Austrian wind parks, which indicate the real output level under different wind conditions. The forecasting method which, based on data from the past, can calculate the real energy generation most accurately, is likely the best method for predicting future output."

Prof. Mayr´s team is now comparing new methods with those already published. In 2006, three methods proved particularly promising: the "logistic Gaussian regression", the "non-homologous Gaussian regression" and the "ensemble dressing". However, the drawback of all three methods is the large amount of input data that they require: data on atmospheric conditions from at least two years.

The method referred to as "analogous" is another approach: It means that a situation is found in the past, which matches the current situation (which serves as input data). Thanks to the knowledge of how the past situation affected the output, the output for the next six hours or up to ten days can be mathematically derived from the current situation.

Besides the reliability and the spatial and temporal resolution of the forecasts, Prof. Mayr is interested in the "probability", as he explains: "The ensemble dressing method can consider the probability that its own forecasts will be accurate. Also, variations in the initial scenario and the resulting impact on the prediction are calculated. If there are few discrepancies, the probability that the predicted outcome will occur is high; if there are large discrepancies, the probability is lower".

TERABYTES & MEGAWATTS
Of course, such calculations accumulate a considerable amount of data. Prof. Mayr has therefore already "forewarned" the central IT services at the University of Innsbruck that his group will be processing a few terabytes of data. This huge "number crunching" effort is well worth it: in the period from 2000 to 2007 alone, the global proportion of wind energy (in the total energy generation) increased by 500 %. At the same time, the energy market is being liberalised and prices are guided by supply and demand, or, more accurately, "scheduled supply and scheduled demand". It can therefore be said with great certainty that a good forecasting method from an FWF project will be worth a lot.
Scientific contact:
Prof. Georg Mayr
University of Innsbruck
Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics
Innrain 52
6020 Innsbruck
T: +43 / 512 / 507 - 5459
E: georg.mayr@uibk.ac.at
Austrian Science Fund FWF:
Mag. Stefan Bernhardt
Haus der Forschung
Sensengasse 1
1090 Vienna
T: +43 / 1 / 505 67 40 - 8111
E: stefan.bernhardt@fwf.ac.at
Copy Editing & Distribution
PR&D - Public Relations for Research & Education Mariannengasse 8 1090 Vienna
T: +43 / 1 / 505 70 44
E: contact@prd.at
W: http://www.prd.at

Raphaela Spadt | PR&D
Further information:
http://www.fwf.ac.at
http://www.fwf.ac.at/en/public_relations/press/pv201010-en.html

More articles from Power and Electrical Engineering:

nachricht Fraunhofer ISE Supports Market Development of Solar Thermal Power Plants in the MENA Region
21.02.2018 | Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE

nachricht New tech for commercial Lithium-ion batteries finds they can be charged 5 times fast
20.02.2018 | University of Warwick

All articles from Power and Electrical Engineering >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Attoseconds break into atomic interior

A newly developed laser technology has enabled physicists in the Laboratory for Attosecond Physics (jointly run by LMU Munich and the Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics) to generate attosecond bursts of high-energy photons of unprecedented intensity. This has made it possible to observe the interaction of multiple photons in a single such pulse with electrons in the inner orbital shell of an atom.

In order to observe the ultrafast electron motion in the inner shells of atoms with short light pulses, the pulses must not only be ultrashort, but very...

Im Focus: Good vibrations feel the force

A group of researchers led by Andrea Cavalleri at the Max Planck Institute for Structure and Dynamics of Matter (MPSD) in Hamburg has demonstrated a new method enabling precise measurements of the interatomic forces that hold crystalline solids together. The paper Probing the Interatomic Potential of Solids by Strong-Field Nonlinear Phononics, published online in Nature, explains how a terahertz-frequency laser pulse can drive very large deformations of the crystal.

By measuring the highly unusual atomic trajectories under extreme electromagnetic transients, the MPSD group could reconstruct how rigid the atomic bonds are...

Im Focus: Developing reliable quantum computers

International research team makes important step on the path to solving certification problems

Quantum computers may one day solve algorithmic problems which even the biggest supercomputers today can’t manage. But how do you test a quantum computer to...

Im Focus: In best circles: First integrated circuit from self-assembled polymer

For the first time, a team of researchers at the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) for Polymer Research in Mainz, Germany, has succeeded in making an integrated circuit (IC) from just a monolayer of a semiconducting polymer via a bottom-up, self-assembly approach.

In the self-assembly process, the semiconducting polymer arranges itself into an ordered monolayer in a transistor. The transistors are binary switches used...

Im Focus: Demonstration of a single molecule piezoelectric effect

Breakthrough provides a new concept of the design of molecular motors, sensors and electricity generators at nanoscale

Researchers from the Institute of Organic Chemistry and Biochemistry of the CAS (IOCB Prague), Institute of Physics of the CAS (IP CAS) and Palacký University...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

2nd International Conference on High Temperature Shape Memory Alloys (HTSMAs)

15.02.2018 | Event News

Aachen DC Grid Summit 2018

13.02.2018 | Event News

How Global Climate Policy Can Learn from the Energy Transition

12.02.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

Basque researchers turn light upside down

23.02.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

Finnish research group discovers a new immune system regulator

23.02.2018 | Health and Medicine

Attoseconds break into atomic interior

23.02.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>