The project, supported by the Austrian Science Fund FWF, thus creates a basis for optimised forecasts of wind park outputs - forecasts that can be used to make better decisions about which measures to take to ensure the need for power is met.
The project focuses on forecasts for periods from six hours up to ten days. In addition to reliability, the temporal and spatial resolution of the different methods is analysed. The scientists also evaluate to what extent these methods are able to calculate the probability that these forecasts come true.
Natural energy sources are fickle. It is a problem that is manageable in hydropower, however the generation of electricity using wind or solar power is very sensitive to changes in the weather. These circumstances are made even more difficult by the growing proportion of "green electricity" in the total production of electricity. Indeed, electricity suppliers must be able to guarantee an agreed-upon supply despite this uncertainty in power generation. They therefore need accurate forecasting methods. A team at the University of Innsbruck, Austria has now begun to look for such methods for predicting power generation by wind parks in Austria.
Prof. Mayr´s team is now comparing new methods with those already published. In 2006, three methods proved particularly promising: the "logistic Gaussian regression", the "non-homologous Gaussian regression" and the "ensemble dressing". However, the drawback of all three methods is the large amount of input data that they require: data on atmospheric conditions from at least two years.
The method referred to as "analogous" is another approach: It means that a situation is found in the past, which matches the current situation (which serves as input data). Thanks to the knowledge of how the past situation affected the output, the output for the next six hours or up to ten days can be mathematically derived from the current situation.
Besides the reliability and the spatial and temporal resolution of the forecasts, Prof. Mayr is interested in the "probability", as he explains: "The ensemble dressing method can consider the probability that its own forecasts will be accurate. Also, variations in the initial scenario and the resulting impact on the prediction are calculated. If there are few discrepancies, the probability that the predicted outcome will occur is high; if there are large discrepancies, the probability is lower".TERABYTES & MEGAWATTS
Raphaela Spadt | PR&D
Silicon solar cell of ISFH yields 25% efficiency with passivating POLO contacts
08.12.2016 | Institut für Solarenergieforschung GmbH
Robot on demand: Mobile machining of aircraft components with high precision
06.12.2016 | Fraunhofer IFAM
Physicists of the University of Würzburg have made an astonishing discovery in a specific type of topological insulators. The effect is due to the structure of the materials used. The researchers have now published their work in the journal Science.
Topological insulators are currently the hot topic in physics according to the newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung. Only a few weeks ago, their importance was...
In recent years, lasers with ultrashort pulses (USP) down to the femtosecond range have become established on an industrial scale. They could advance some applications with the much-lauded “cold ablation” – if that meant they would then achieve more throughput. A new generation of process engineering that will address this issue in particular will be discussed at the “4th UKP Workshop – Ultrafast Laser Technology” in April 2017.
Even back in the 1990s, scientists were comparing materials processing with nanosecond, picosecond and femtosesecond pulses. The result was surprising:...
Have you ever wondered how you see the world? Vision is about photons of light, which are packets of energy, interacting with the atoms or molecules in what...
A multi-institutional research collaboration has created a novel approach for fabricating three-dimensional micro-optics through the shape-defined formation of porous silicon (PSi), with broad impacts in integrated optoelectronics, imaging, and photovoltaics.
Working with colleagues at Stanford and The Dow Chemical Company, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign fabricated 3-D birefringent...
In experiments with magnetic atoms conducted at extremely low temperatures, scientists have demonstrated a unique phase of matter: The atoms form a new type of quantum liquid or quantum droplet state. These so called quantum droplets may preserve their form in absence of external confinement because of quantum effects. The joint team of experimental physicists from Innsbruck and theoretical physicists from Hannover report on their findings in the journal Physical Review X.
“Our Quantum droplets are in the gas phase but they still drop like a rock,” explains experimental physicist Francesca Ferlaino when talking about the...
16.11.2016 | Event News
01.11.2016 | Event News
14.10.2016 | Event News
09.12.2016 | Life Sciences
09.12.2016 | Ecology, The Environment and Conservation
09.12.2016 | Health and Medicine