Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

EU could cut emissions by 40 percent at moderate cost

16.01.2014
The costs of achieving a more ambitious EU climate target are estimated to be moderate.

Upscaling greenhouse-gas emissions reduction from the current 20 percent by 2020 to 40 percent by 2030 would be likely to cost less than an additional 0.7 percent of economic activity.

This is a key finding from an international multi-model analysis by the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF28) and comes at a crucial time, as the European Commission is set to announce next week its plans whether to scale up its efforts on emissions reduction in the next decade.

However, beyond 2040, according to the scientists the costs risk to rise substantially. Technological innovation would be needed to counter this.

“In the next two decades, it is possible to achieve the transformation using existing technologies,” says Brigitte Knopf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the study conducted by a dozen research groups. Thereafter, however, energy-economy system models project different costs. Some simulations show a steep increase after 2040, while others show only a linear increase. One determining factor is the degree to which new technologies can replace old ones. This indicates that technological progress is needed to keep costs in check.

“A clear price signal has to be set today, for instance in the European Emissions Trading System,” says Knopf. “It would provide an incentive for innovation that would prevent energy systems from being locked into long-lasting investments in CO2-intensive technologies, such as coal-fired power plants.”

Current CO2 reductions fall short of achieving long-term climate targets

“The current 20 percent emission reductions by 2020 could fall short of achieving the long-term climate targets set by the EU,” explains Enrica De Cian of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy. “Short-term emissions reductions of at least 40 percent by 2030 are necessary to eventually meet the long-term target of an 80 percent reduction by 2050 aspired by the EU.” The reference year is 1990. The models in the study would actually suggest an even more ambitious short-term target than those 40 percent that are currently under debate.

The analysis confirms the core findings of the much debated EU Energy Roadmap, which details the EU climate and energy strategy. “By setting targets for 2030, the EU would signal its willingness to contribute to the global climate mitigation effort”, De Cian points out. “And a positive reaction of other countries to this signal could foster technological change and innovation within Europe as well.”

Many options to choose from - wind power could expand sevenfold

Options explored by the study to reach the EU climate target range from renewable energies to nuclear energy and energy-efficiency increases. “There’s a wide choice for decision-makers, depending on their preferences, so that’s a good thing,” says Detlef van Vuuren of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University. “Still, most model calculations optimizing the change of the electricity system project energy from biomass to expand threefold, and from wind even sevenfold by 2050.” This would have to be reflected in a potential future EU target on renewable energy.

One remarkable finding is that Europe could do without relying on the much debated and as yet unproven technology of sequestering CO2 from power plant emissions and injecting it into the ground. This is a new result compared to the Roadmap study. Nonetheless, ‘Carbon Capture and Storage’ (CCS) would be needed to achieve an affordable worldwide transformation.

Robust multi-model assessment of EU Roadmap

The new study is the most systematic comparison of computer simulations of the European energy-economy system to date. It includes the PRIMES model, which had attracted criticism in the past for being the only one used by the European Commission for previous assessments of the energy system. “The more comprehensive approach now allows for a more robust assessment of technologies, costs and infrastructure requirements,” John Weyant says, who leads the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum EMF. This is detailed in the Special Issue of Climate Change Economics. “It shows some very promising opportunities to avoid the risks of unabated climate change.”

Article: Knopf, B., Chen, Y-H. H., De Cian, E., Förster, H., Kanudia, A., Karkatsouli, I., Keppo, I., Koljonen, T., Schuhmacher, K., Van Vuuren, D.P. (2013): Beyond 2020 – Strategies and costs for transforming the European energy system. In a Special Issue of Climate Change Economics Vol.04 [doi: 10.1142/S2010007813400010]

Weblink to the article: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S2010007813400010

Weblink to the Special Issue: http://www.worldscientific.com/toc/cce/04/supp01

Weblink to more information on EMF: http://emf.stanford.edu/docs/about_emf/

For further information please contact:
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de
Twitter: @PIK_Climate
Weitere Informationen:
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S2010007813400010
- Weblink to the article
http://www.worldscientific.com/toc/cce/04/supp01
- Weblink to the Special Issue
http://emf.stanford.edu/docs/about_emf/
- Weblink to more information on EMF

Jonas Viering | PIK Pressestelle
Further information:
http://www.pik-potsdam.de

More articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation:

nachricht Despite government claims, orangutan populations have not increased. Call for better monitoring
06.11.2018 | Deutsches Zentrum für integrative Biodiversitätsforschung (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig

nachricht Increasing frequency of ocean storms could alter kelp forest ecosystems
30.10.2018 | University of Virginia

All articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: UNH scientists help provide first-ever views of elusive energy explosion

Researchers at the University of New Hampshire have captured a difficult-to-view singular event involving "magnetic reconnection"--the process by which sparse particles and energy around Earth collide producing a quick but mighty explosion--in the Earth's magnetotail, the magnetic environment that trails behind the planet.

Magnetic reconnection has remained a bit of a mystery to scientists. They know it exists and have documented the effects that the energy explosions can...

Im Focus: A Chip with Blood Vessels

Biochips have been developed at TU Wien (Vienna), on which tissue can be produced and examined. This allows supplying the tissue with different substances in a very controlled way.

Cultivating human cells in the Petri dish is not a big challenge today. Producing artificial tissue, however, permeated by fine blood vessels, is a much more...

Im Focus: A Leap Into Quantum Technology

Faster and secure data communication: This is the goal of a new joint project involving physicists from the University of Würzburg. The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research funds the project with 14.8 million euro.

In our digital world data security and secure communication are becoming more and more important. Quantum communication is a promising approach to achieve...

Im Focus: Research icebreaker Polarstern begins the Antarctic season

What does it look like below the ice shelf of the calved massive iceberg A68?

On Saturday, 10 November 2018, the research icebreaker Polarstern will leave its homeport of Bremerhaven, bound for Cape Town, South Africa.

Im Focus: Penn engineers develop ultrathin, ultralight 'nanocardboard'

When choosing materials to make something, trade-offs need to be made between a host of properties, such as thickness, stiffness and weight. Depending on the application in question, finding just the right balance is the difference between success and failure

Now, a team of Penn Engineers has demonstrated a new material they call "nanocardboard," an ultrathin equivalent of corrugated paper cardboard. A square...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

“3rd Conference on Laser Polishing – LaP 2018” Attracts International Experts and Users

09.11.2018 | Event News

On the brain’s ability to find the right direction

06.11.2018 | Event News

European Space Talks: Weltraumschrott – eine Gefahr für die Gesellschaft?

23.10.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

Purdue cancer identity technology makes it easier to find a tumor's 'address'

16.11.2018 | Health and Medicine

Good preparation is half the digestion

16.11.2018 | Life Sciences

Microscope measures muscle weakness

16.11.2018 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>