Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:


Scientists simulate pandemic influenza outbreak in Chicago

By using computer simulations and modeling, an international group of researchers including scientists from the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute (VBI) at Virginia Tech’s Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory (NDSSL) have determined how a pandemic influenza outbreak might travel through a city similar in size to Chicago, Ill.

This information helped them to determine the preferred intervention strategy to contain a potential flu pandemic, including what people should do to decrease the likelihood of disease transmission.

The new results, based on three different computer simulation models, are described in a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by scientists involved in the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS).* MIDAS is a collaboration of research and informatics groups supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to develop computational models to examine interactions between infectious agents and their hosts, disease spread, prediction systems, and response strategies.

The global epidemic of avian influenza in bird populations, as well as the risk of a virulent form of the bird flu virus being transferred to humans, has made influenza pandemic preparedness a top public health priority in the United States, Europe, and other countries. The great influenza pandemic of 1918 resulted in 40 to 50 million deaths worldwide. If a pandemic were to occur today, it could cause widespread social and economic disruptions.

In the paper, “Modeling Targeted Layered Containment of an Influenza Pandemic in the USA,” members of the MIDAS Working Group on Modeling Pandemic Influenza concluded that a timely implementation of targeted household antiviral prevention measures and a reduction in contact between individuals could substantially lower the spread of the disease until a vaccine was available.

The groups coordinated efforts to each create individual-based, computer simulation models to examine the impact of the same set of intervention strategies used during a pandemic outbreak in a population similar in size to Chicago, which has about 8.6 million residents. Intervention methods used were antiviral treatment and household isolation of identified cases, disease prevention strategies and quarantine of household contacts, school closings, and reducing workplace and community contacts. Although using the same population, each model had its own representation of the combinations of intervention. All of the simulations suggest that the combination of providing preemptive household antiviral treatments and minimizing contact could play a major role in reducing the spread of illness, with timely initiation and school closure serving as important factors.

“VBI’s computer simulation models are built on our detailed estimates for social contacts in an urban environment,” said VBI Professor and NDSSL Deputy Director Stephen Eubank, who leads the VBI team in the working group. “They provide a realistic picture of how social mixing patterns change under non-pharmaceutical interventions such as closing schools or workplaces. For example, when schools close, young students require a caregiver’s attention. That can disrupt social mixing patterns at work if a working parent stays home or make closing schools pointless if the children are placed in large day-care settings. We can use our model to suggest the best mix of intervention strategies in a variety of scenarios, taking factors like these into account.”

Bruno Sobral, Executive and Scientific Director of VBI, remarked: “Transdisciplinary science, which is the foundation of the way we do research at VBI, requires a special type of collaborative framework at the very outset of a project. The highly detailed social-network models that underpin this international research project arise from transdisciplinary science that removes disciplinary boundaries and promotes innovation. The impact of this approach to science is highlighted by the success of this research undertaking which benefits from a very clear interface between diverse experts in high-performance computing, disease modeling and public health practice.”

While the three different models used in the study show that timely intervention significantly impedes the spread of influenza through a population, the authors caution against over-interpretation of the modeling results. The researchers emphasize that the models are tools that provide guidance rather than being fully predictive. In the case of a future outbreak of pandemic influenza, capabilities such as real-time surveillance and other analyses will hopefully be available for the public health community and policy makers.

“These models, which are built from the best available data and with the best tools, contribute greatly to our understanding of how a pandemic could spread and what measures might protect the public’s health,” said Jeremy M. Berg, Ph.D., director of NIH’s National Institute of General Medical Sciences, which supports the MIDAS program. “But they are not our only resource—field work and experimental studies remain critical and will enhance the quality and reliability of these and other models.”

Susan Bland | EurekAlert!
Further information:

More articles from Information Technology:

nachricht Next Generation Cryptography
20.03.2018 | Fraunhofer-Institut für Sichere Informationstechnologie SIT

nachricht TIB’s Visual Analytics Research Group to develop methods for person detection and visualisation
19.03.2018 | Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB)

All articles from Information Technology >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Space observation with radar to secure Germany's space infrastructure

Satellites in near-Earth orbit are at risk due to the steady increase in space debris. But their mission in the areas of telecommunications, navigation or weather forecasts is essential for society. Fraunhofer FHR therefore develops radar-based systems which allow the detection, tracking and cataloging of even the smallest particles of debris. Satellite operators who have access to our data are in a better position to plan evasive maneuvers and prevent destructive collisions. From April, 25-29 2018, Fraunhofer FHR and its partners will exhibit the complementary radar systems TIRA and GESTRA as well as the latest radar techniques for space observation across three stands at the ILA Berlin.

The "traffic situation" in space is very tense: the Earth is currently being orbited not only by countless satellites but also by a large volume of space...

Im Focus: Researchers Discover New Anti-Cancer Protein

An international team of researchers has discovered a new anti-cancer protein. The protein, called LHPP, prevents the uncontrolled proliferation of cancer cells in the liver. The researchers led by Prof. Michael N. Hall from the Biozentrum, University of Basel, report in “Nature” that LHPP can also serve as a biomarker for the diagnosis and prognosis of liver cancer.

The incidence of liver cancer, also known as hepatocellular carcinoma, is steadily increasing. In the last twenty years, the number of cases has almost doubled...

Im Focus: Researchers at Fraunhofer monitor re-entry of Chinese space station Tiangong-1

In just a few weeks from now, the Chinese space station Tiangong-1 will re-enter the Earth's atmosphere where it will to a large extent burn up. It is possible that some debris will reach the Earth's surface. Tiangong-1 is orbiting the Earth uncontrolled at a speed of approx. 29,000 km/h.Currently the prognosis relating to the time of impact currently lies within a window of several days. The scientists at Fraunhofer FHR have already been monitoring Tiangong-1 for a number of weeks with their TIRA system, one of the most powerful space observation radars in the world, with a view to supporting the German Space Situational Awareness Center and the ESA with their re-entry forecasts.

Following the loss of radio contact with Tiangong-1 in 2016 and due to the low orbital height, it is now inevitable that the Chinese space station will...

Im Focus: Alliance „OLED Licht Forum“ – Key partner for OLED lighting solutions

Fraunhofer Institute for Organic Electronics, Electron Beam and Plasma Technology FEP, provider of research and development services for OLED lighting solutions, announces the founding of the “OLED Licht Forum” and presents latest OLED design and lighting solutions during light+building, from March 18th – 23rd, 2018 in Frankfurt a.M./Germany, at booth no. F91 in Hall 4.0.

They are united in their passion for OLED (organic light emitting diodes) lighting with all of its unique facets and application possibilities. Thus experts in...

Im Focus: Mars' oceans formed early, possibly aided by massive volcanic eruptions

Oceans formed before Tharsis and evolved together, shaping climate history of Mars

A new scenario seeking to explain how Mars' putative oceans came and went over the last 4 billion years implies that the oceans formed several hundred million...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>



Industry & Economy
Event News

New solar solutions for sustainable buildings and cities

23.03.2018 | Event News

Virtual reality conference comes to Reutlingen

19.03.2018 | Event News

Ultrafast Wireless and Chip Design at the DATE Conference in Dresden

16.03.2018 | Event News

Latest News

Don't Give the Slightest Chance to Toxic Elements in Medicinal Products

23.03.2018 | Life Sciences

Sensitive grip

23.03.2018 | Materials Sciences

No compromises: Combining the benefits of 3D printing and casting

23.03.2018 | Process Engineering

Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>