Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Modeling Framework Projects Significant Increase in Ozone-Related Deaths

08.11.2004


A new modeling framework suggests that climate change alone could cause a 4.5% increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths across the New York metropolitan region by the year 2050, according to a study published today in the November issue of the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Health Perspectives (EHP). When population growth and projected growth in greenhouse gas emissions are factored in, the model predicts a 59.9% increase in summer ozone-related deaths by 2050.

The larger projected impact is largely caused by expected growth in the populations most at risk. Numerous earlier studies have linked ozone with hospital admissions and emergency visits for respiratory conditions. Other recent studies have drawn a link between elevated ozone levels and mortality among residents in large cities.

This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change in specific regions. The framework was developed to better assess potential health effects of air pollution resulting from climate change. It comprises a global climate model from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, a model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality Atmospheric Chemistry Model.



With the new tool, the researchers simulated hourly regional meteorologic conditions and ozone levels for five consecutive summers in the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2080s across the 31-county New York Metropolitan Area. The area incorporates the nation’s largest city, parts of northern New York, Long Island, southern Connecticut, and northeastern/central New Jersey, including an estimated 1,600 cities, towns, and villages.

“Under a variety of assumptions, climate change alone could increase regional summer ozone-related mortality by a median 4.5% in the 2050s compared with the 1990s,” the study authors write. “These assumptions do not include the effect of projected population growth. When a more fully elaborated picture of the likely regional future was evaluated, much greater changes in summer mortality are projected: Regional summer ozone-related mortality would increase by a median 59.9% in the 2050s compared with the 1990s.”

“This study takes existing climate model outputs and overlays them to project the likely future-year ozone concentrations for a specific region. By doing this, the authors were able to project a potentially significant public health impact,” said Dr. Jim Burkhart, science editor for EHP.

The lead author of the study was Kim Knowlton of the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University in New York. Other authors were Joyce E. Rosenthal, Christian Hogrefe, Barry Lynn, Stuart Gaffin, Richard Goldberg, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Kevin Civerolo, Jia-Yeong Ku, and Patrick L. Kinney.

EHP is published by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. EHP became an Open Access journal in January 2004.

| newswise
Further information:
http://www.niehs.nih.gov
http://www.ehponline.org

More articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation:

nachricht Listening in: Acoustic monitoring devices detect illegal hunting and logging
14.12.2017 | Gesellschaft für Ökologie e.V.

nachricht How fires are changing the tundra’s face
12.12.2017 | Gesellschaft für Ökologie e.V.

All articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Long-lived storage of a photonic qubit for worldwide teleportation

MPQ scientists achieve long storage times for photonic quantum bits which break the lower bound for direct teleportation in a global quantum network.

Concerning the development of quantum memories for the realization of global quantum networks, scientists of the Quantum Dynamics Division led by Professor...

Im Focus: Electromagnetic water cloak eliminates drag and wake

Detailed calculations show water cloaks are feasible with today's technology

Researchers have developed a water cloaking concept based on electromagnetic forces that could eliminate an object's wake, greatly reducing its drag while...

Im Focus: Scientists channel graphene to understand filtration and ion transport into cells

Tiny pores at a cell's entryway act as miniature bouncers, letting in some electrically charged atoms--ions--but blocking others. Operating as exquisitely sensitive filters, these "ion channels" play a critical role in biological functions such as muscle contraction and the firing of brain cells.

To rapidly transport the right ions through the cell membrane, the tiny channels rely on a complex interplay between the ions and surrounding molecules,...

Im Focus: Towards data storage at the single molecule level

The miniaturization of the current technology of storage media is hindered by fundamental limits of quantum mechanics. A new approach consists in using so-called spin-crossover molecules as the smallest possible storage unit. Similar to normal hard drives, these special molecules can save information via their magnetic state. A research team from Kiel University has now managed to successfully place a new class of spin-crossover molecules onto a surface and to improve the molecule’s storage capacity. The storage density of conventional hard drives could therefore theoretically be increased by more than one hundred fold. The study has been published in the scientific journal Nano Letters.

Over the past few years, the building blocks of storage media have gotten ever smaller. But further miniaturization of the current technology is hindered by...

Im Focus: Successful Mechanical Testing of Nanowires

With innovative experiments, researchers at the Helmholtz-Zentrums Geesthacht and the Technical University Hamburg unravel why tiny metallic structures are extremely strong

Light-weight and simultaneously strong – porous metallic nanomaterials promise interesting applications as, for instance, for future aeroplanes with enhanced...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

See, understand and experience the work of the future

11.12.2017 | Event News

Innovative strategies to tackle parasitic worms

08.12.2017 | Event News

AKL’18: The opportunities and challenges of digitalization in the laser industry

07.12.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Plasmonic biosensors enable development of new easy-to-use health tests

14.12.2017 | Health and Medicine

New type of smart windows use liquid to switch from clear to reflective

14.12.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

BigH1 -- The key histone for male fertility

14.12.2017 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>