Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Experts defend operational earthquake forecasting, counter critiques

02.09.2014

SRL publishes details of first official OEF system in Italy

Experts defend operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in an editorial published in the Seismological Research Letters (SRL), arguing the importance of public communication as part of a suite of activities intended to improve public safety and mitigate damage from earthquakes. In a related article, Italian scientists detail the first official OEF system in Italy.

What is known about the probability of an earthquake on a specific fault varies over time, influenced largely by local seismic activity. OEF is the timely dissemination of authoritative scientific information about earthquake probabilities to the public and policymakers.

After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, Italian authorities established the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF), led by Thomas H. Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, former president of the Seismological Society of America (SSA) and lead author of the SRL editorial.

The commission issued a comprehensive report, published in 2011, which outlined OEF as one component of a larger system for guiding actions to mitigate earthquake risk, based on scientific information about the earthquake threat.

In this editorial, the authors respond to recent critiques suggesting that OEF is ineffective, distracting and dangerous. Citing results from ongoing OEF fieldwork in New Zealand, Italy and the United States, the authors emphasize the utility of OEF information in aiding policy makers and the public in reducing the risk from earthquakes.

"Although we cannot reliably predict large earthquakes with high probability, we do know that earthquake probabilities can change with time by factors of 100 or more. In our view, people deserve all the information that seismology can provide to help them make decisions about working and living with the earthquake threat," said Jordan.

Concerns that short-term forecasts would cause panic, or lead to user fatigue and inaction, underestimate the general public's ability to identify authoritative sources of information and make appropriate individual decisions, say the authors. While they acknowledge that communicating OEF uncertainties may be difficult, they conclude that "not communicating is hardly an option."

Nan Broadbent | Eurek Alert!
Further information:
http://www.seismosoc.org

More articles from Earth Sciences:

nachricht What would a tsunami in the Mediterranean look like?
27.08.2015 | European Geosciences Union

nachricht NASA sees former Typhoon Atsani's remnants affecting Alaska
27.08.2015 | NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

All articles from Earth Sciences >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: What would a tsunami in the Mediterranean look like?

A team of European researchers have developed a model to simulate the impact of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and applied it to the Eastern Mediterranean. The results show how tsunami waves could hit and inundate coastal areas in southern Italy and Greece. The study is published today (27 August) in Ocean Science, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

Though not as frequent as in the Pacific and Indian oceans, tsunamis also occur in the Mediterranean, mainly due to earthquakes generated when the African...

Im Focus: Self-healing landscape: landslides after earthquake

In mountainous regions earthquakes often cause strong landslides, which can be exacerbated by heavy rain. However, after an initial increase, the frequency of these mass wasting events, often enormous and dangerous, declines, in fact independently of meteorological events and aftershocks.

These new findings are presented by a German-Franco-Japanese team of geoscientists in the current issue of the journal Geology, under the lead of the GFZ...

Im Focus: FIC Proteins Send Bacteria Into Hibernation

Bacteria do not cease to amaze us with their survival strategies. A research team from the University of Basel's Biozentrum has now discovered how bacteria enter a sleep mode using a so-called FIC toxin. In the current issue of “Cell Reports”, the scientists describe the mechanism of action and also explain why their discovery provides new insights into the evolution of pathogens.

For many poisons there are antidotes which neutralize their toxic effect. Toxin-antitoxin systems in bacteria work in a similar manner: As long as a cell...

Im Focus: Fraunhofer IPA develops prototype of intelligent care cart

It comes when called, bringing care utensils with it and recording how they are used: Fraunhofer IPA is developing an intelligent care cart that provides care staff with physical and informational support in their day-to-day work. The scientists at Fraunhofer IPA have now completed a first prototype. In doing so, they are continuing in their efforts to improve working conditions in the care sector and are developing solutions designed to address the challenges of demographic change.

Technical assistance systems can improve the difficult working conditions in residential nursing homes and hospitals by helping the staff in their work and...

Im Focus: A Grand Voyage for Tiny Organisms

Climate and Ecosystem Change in the Mediterranean

Since the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 many hundreds of marine animal and plant species from the Red Sea have invaded the eastern Mediterranean, leading...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Networking conference in Heidelberg for outstanding mathematicians and computer scientists

20.08.2015 | Event News

Scientists meet in Münster for the world’s largest Chitin und Chitosan Conference

20.08.2015 | Event News

Large agribusiness management strategies

19.08.2015 | Event News

 
Latest News

Cells cling and spiral 'like vines' in first 3-D tissue scaffold for plants

27.08.2015 | Life Sciences

Hypoallergenic parks: Coming soon?

27.08.2015 | Health and Medicine

Stiffer breast tissue in obese women promotes tumors

27.08.2015 | Health and Medicine

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>