"When faced with the possibility of an earthquake, up until now the physical risk of the city has only ever been evaluated. This, in other words, means damage to buildings and infrastructures taking into consideration the amount of people inside," as explained to SINC by Liliana Carreño, researcher at the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC). Her team proposes a new method of carrying out an overall assessment of the seismic risk of an urban area, taking into account the social strengths and weakness and the city's governance.
The system created by Carreño and her team considers values such as "crime rates, whether there are marginalised areas, the number of hospital beds, training of hospital staff, etc, which all constitute factors of fragility and social capacity," explain the researchers. "This methodology greatly improves on our ability to assess future losses because it takes into account the social condition of the exposed population, which was previously treated as a mere number," states Carreño.
Published in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, the new approach has another added value: it uses a technique based on 'fuzzy logic theory' which allows for the use of qualitative information obtained from expert opinion when the necessary numerical information is lacking.
Translating Opinions to Numbers
"The methods for making a complete risk calculation in a given urban area require great quantities of information that is not always available" highlights the researcher. According to Carreño, seismic risk specialists have always faced complex problems concerning imprecise information. "We can now translate linguistic variables like a lot, a few, slight, severe, scarce and enough into mathematic formalism for their subsequent measurement," outlines the scientist.
In order to verify the method's validity, Carreño and her team applied it to the cities of Barcelona and Bogotá (Colombia). She adds that "the Catalan city is a good model since its seismic risk has been subject to study for more than 20 year." Its results confirmed expected risk levels: medium-high for Bogotá and medium-low for Barcelona.
As Carreño concludes, "Barcelona's assessment was carried out with the availability of sound information. But, the most important aspect of this model is that it is especially useful when studying an urban space that does not have such an advantage and where information is lacking."
Reference: Carreño M.L.; Cardona O.D.; Barbat A.H. "New methodology for urban seismic risk assessment from a holistic perspective" Bull Earthquake Eng 10:547-565. 2012. DOI 10.1007/s10518-011-9302-2
SINC | EurekAlert!
NASA examines newly formed Tropical Depression 3W in 3-D
26.04.2017 | NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Early organic carbon got deep burial in mantle
25.04.2017 | Rice University
More and more automobile companies are focusing on body parts made of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP). However, manufacturing and repair costs must be further reduced in order to make CFRP more economical in use. Together with the Volkswagen AG and five other partners in the project HolQueSt 3D, the Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) has developed laser processes for the automatic trimming, drilling and repair of three-dimensional components.
Automated manufacturing processes are the basis for ultimately establishing the series production of CFRP components. In the project HolQueSt 3D, the LZH has...
Reflecting the structure of composites found in nature and the ancient world, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have synthesized thin carbon nanotube (CNT) textiles that exhibit both high electrical conductivity and a level of toughness that is about fifty times higher than copper films, currently used in electronics.
"The structural robustness of thin metal films has significant importance for the reliable operation of smart skin and flexible electronics including...
The nearby, giant radio galaxy M87 hosts a supermassive black hole (BH) and is well-known for its bright jet dominating the spectrum over ten orders of magnitude in frequency. Due to its proximity, jet prominence, and the large black hole mass, M87 is the best laboratory for investigating the formation, acceleration, and collimation of relativistic jets. A research team led by Silke Britzen from the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany, has found strong indication for turbulent processes connecting the accretion disk and the jet of that galaxy providing insights into the longstanding problem of the origin of astrophysical jets.
Supermassive black holes form some of the most enigmatic phenomena in astrophysics. Their enormous energy output is supposed to be generated by the...
The probability to find a certain number of photons inside a laser pulse usually corresponds to a classical distribution of independent events, the so-called...
Microprocessors based on atomically thin materials hold the promise of the evolution of traditional processors as well as new applications in the field of flexible electronics. Now, a TU Wien research team led by Thomas Müller has made a breakthrough in this field as part of an ongoing research project.
Two-dimensional materials, or 2D materials for short, are extremely versatile, although – or often more precisely because – they are made up of just one or a...
20.04.2017 | Event News
18.04.2017 | Event News
03.04.2017 | Event News
26.04.2017 | Earth Sciences
26.04.2017 | Health and Medicine
25.04.2017 | Physics and Astronomy