Baby suffering from malaria
Photo: WHO/Pierre Virot 2001
A global mass killer could be tamed with the aid of satellite technology. Scientists are using data from Meteosat to help model and predict outbreaks of malaria. "Satellite sensor data hold out hope for the development of early-warning systems for diseases such as malaria, which kills between 1 and 2 million people each year," says David Rogers, of Oxford University’s Department of Zoology.
Rogers is part of a team based in Oxford, Nairobi and at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Maryland, who are using Meteosat and other satellite climate data to create mathematical models of the prevalence and spread of malaria, and the dynamics of outbreaks of the disease.
"Malaria takes its greatest toll in sub Saharan Africa," explains Rogers, "but the failure of affordable drugs, population growth and poverty are all contributing to a steady increase in the scale of the problem." It is against this background that interest in using satellite surveillance to map and predict malaria outbreaks is growing.
Several climate factors affect the mosquito population. David Rogers explains: "Temperature, humidity and rainfall are all important to mosquitoes at different stages of their life cycle but the relative importance of each varies in different places. In cold places, temperature limits the population and water generally doesn’t. In warmer places temperature is usually not limiting but water may be. In the hottest of places, all three factors tend to be limiting."
The team has been searching for the best correlation between climate factors and the incidence of malaria. The situation is complicated by the fact that the relationship between the number of mosquitoes and the number of cases of malaria is not a simple one; the inherent resistance or immunity of the local people to the disease varies in cycles and the reporting and recording of actual cases of infection on the ground is patchy at best.
To help deal with this problem, the team have found that a measure of plant growth is in fact very well matched to reported cases of malaria in many locations in East Africa, so perhaps that index can be used to ’fill in the gaps’ in the patchy medical data.
The team believe they have now begun to see some clear patterns emerging in the correlation of Meteosat cloud and rainfall data and malaria outbreaks, as a paper in the journal Nature, published last week explains. But, adds David Rogers "no prediction is ever 100% correct, so we see our work as progressively approximating the real situation on the ground in a continuing loop - make a prediction, check it on the ground, find and investigate wrong predictions and make a better model."
With climate change threatening to change the prevalence of diseases like malaria, it is more important than ever to develop good techniques for predicting their behaviour. "It is clear that the technologies we now have to study these diseases are far better than those available to malariologists in the early years of the last century. The challenge is to make the science of malaria prediction at least as good," concludes David Rogers. "All epidemiologists are looking forward to the greater information content of Meteosat SecondGeneration (MSG) data".
The first MSG, developed by ESA in cooperation with EUMETSAT, will be launched by EUMETSAT this summer.
Evangelina Oriol-Pibernat | ESA
Candidate Ebola vaccine still effective when highly diluted, macaque study finds
21.10.2019 | NIH/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Autism spectrum disorder risk linked to insufficient placental steroid
21.10.2019 | Children's National Hospital
A very special kind of light is emitted by tungsten diselenide layers. The reason for this has been unclear. Now an explanation has been found at TU Wien (Vienna)
It is an exotic phenomenon that nobody was able to explain for years: when energy is supplied to a thin layer of the material tungsten diselenide, it begins to...
Researchers at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet (LMU) in Munich have explored the initial consequences of the interaction of light with molecules on the surface of nanoscopic aerosols.
The nanocosmos is constantly in motion. All natural processes are ultimately determined by the interplay between radiation and matter. Light strikes particles...
Particles that are mere nanometers in size are at the forefront of scientific research today. They come in many different shapes: rods, spheres, cubes, vesicles, S-shaped worms and even donut-like rings. What makes them worthy of scientific study is that, being so tiny, they exhibit quantum mechanical properties not possible with larger objects.
Researchers at the Center for Nanoscale Materials (CNM), a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science User Facility located at DOE's Argonne National...
A new research project at the TH Mittelhessen focusses on the development of a novel light weight design concept for leisure boats and yachts. Professor Stephan Marzi from the THM Institute of Mechanics and Materials collaborates with Krake Catamarane, which is a shipyard located in Apolda, Thuringia.
The project is set up in an international cooperation with Professor Anders Biel from Karlstad University in Sweden and the Swedish company Lamera from...
Superconductivity has fascinated scientists for many years since it offers the potential to revolutionize current technologies. Materials only become superconductors - meaning that electrons can travel in them with no resistance - at very low temperatures. These days, this unique zero resistance superconductivity is commonly found in a number of technologies, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).
Future technologies, however, will harness the total synchrony of electronic behavior in superconductors - a property called the phase. There is currently a...
02.10.2019 | Event News
02.10.2019 | Event News
19.09.2019 | Event News
21.10.2019 | Materials Sciences
21.10.2019 | Materials Sciences
21.10.2019 | Medical Engineering