Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Modeling Framework Projects Significant Increase in Ozone-Related Deaths

08.11.2004


A new modeling framework suggests that climate change alone could cause a 4.5% increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths across the New York metropolitan region by the year 2050, according to a study published today in the November issue of the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Health Perspectives (EHP). When population growth and projected growth in greenhouse gas emissions are factored in, the model predicts a 59.9% increase in summer ozone-related deaths by 2050.

The larger projected impact is largely caused by expected growth in the populations most at risk. Numerous earlier studies have linked ozone with hospital admissions and emergency visits for respiratory conditions. Other recent studies have drawn a link between elevated ozone levels and mortality among residents in large cities.

This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change in specific regions. The framework was developed to better assess potential health effects of air pollution resulting from climate change. It comprises a global climate model from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, a model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality Atmospheric Chemistry Model.



With the new tool, the researchers simulated hourly regional meteorologic conditions and ozone levels for five consecutive summers in the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2080s across the 31-county New York Metropolitan Area. The area incorporates the nation’s largest city, parts of northern New York, Long Island, southern Connecticut, and northeastern/central New Jersey, including an estimated 1,600 cities, towns, and villages.

“Under a variety of assumptions, climate change alone could increase regional summer ozone-related mortality by a median 4.5% in the 2050s compared with the 1990s,” the study authors write. “These assumptions do not include the effect of projected population growth. When a more fully elaborated picture of the likely regional future was evaluated, much greater changes in summer mortality are projected: Regional summer ozone-related mortality would increase by a median 59.9% in the 2050s compared with the 1990s.”

“This study takes existing climate model outputs and overlays them to project the likely future-year ozone concentrations for a specific region. By doing this, the authors were able to project a potentially significant public health impact,” said Dr. Jim Burkhart, science editor for EHP.

The lead author of the study was Kim Knowlton of the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University in New York. Other authors were Joyce E. Rosenthal, Christian Hogrefe, Barry Lynn, Stuart Gaffin, Richard Goldberg, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Kevin Civerolo, Jia-Yeong Ku, and Patrick L. Kinney.

EHP is published by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. EHP became an Open Access journal in January 2004.

| newswise
Further information:
http://www.niehs.nih.gov
http://www.ehponline.org

More articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation:

nachricht Upcycling of PET Bottles: New Ideas for Resource Cycles in Germany
25.06.2018 | Fraunhofer-Institut für Betriebsfestigkeit und Systemzuverlässigkeit LBF

nachricht Dry landscapes can increase disease transmission
20.06.2018 | Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V.

All articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Future electronic components to be printed like newspapers

A new manufacturing technique uses a process similar to newspaper printing to form smoother and more flexible metals for making ultrafast electronic devices.

The low-cost process, developed by Purdue University researchers, combines tools already used in industry for manufacturing metals on a large scale, but uses...

Im Focus: First evidence on the source of extragalactic particles

For the first time ever, scientists have determined the cosmic origin of highest-energy neutrinos. A research group led by IceCube scientist Elisa Resconi, spokesperson of the Collaborative Research Center SFB1258 at the Technical University of Munich (TUM), provides an important piece of evidence that the particles detected by the IceCube neutrino telescope at the South Pole originate from a galaxy four billion light-years away from Earth.

To rule out other origins with certainty, the team led by neutrino physicist Elisa Resconi from the Technical University of Munich and multi-wavelength...

Im Focus: Magnetic vortices: Two independent magnetic skyrmion phases discovered in a single material

For the first time a team of researchers have discovered two different phases of magnetic skyrmions in a single material. Physicists of the Technical Universities of Munich and Dresden and the University of Cologne can now better study and understand the properties of these magnetic structures, which are important for both basic research and applications.

Whirlpools are an everyday experience in a bath tub: When the water is drained a circular vortex is formed. Typically, such whirls are rather stable. Similar...

Im Focus: Breaking the bond: To take part or not?

Physicists working with Roland Wester at the University of Innsbruck have investigated if and how chemical reactions can be influenced by targeted vibrational excitation of the reactants. They were able to demonstrate that excitation with a laser beam does not affect the efficiency of a chemical exchange reaction and that the excited molecular group acts only as a spectator in the reaction.

A frequently used reaction in organic chemistry is nucleophilic substitution. It plays, for example, an important role in in the synthesis of new chemical...

Im Focus: New 2D Spectroscopy Methods

Optical spectroscopy allows investigating the energy structure and dynamic properties of complex quantum systems. Researchers from the University of Würzburg present two new approaches of coherent two-dimensional spectroscopy.

"Put an excitation into the system and observe how it evolves." According to physicist Professor Tobias Brixner, this is the credo of optical spectroscopy....

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

Leading experts in Diabetes, Metabolism and Biomedical Engineering discuss Precision Medicine

13.07.2018 | Event News

Conference on Laser Polishing – LaP: Fine Tuning for Surfaces

12.07.2018 | Event News

11th European Wood-based Panel Symposium 2018: Meeting point for the wood-based materials industry

03.07.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

A smart safe rechargeable zinc ion battery based on sol-gel transition electrolytes

20.07.2018 | Power and Electrical Engineering

Reversing cause and effect is no trouble for quantum computers

20.07.2018 | Information Technology

Princeton-UPenn research team finds physics treasure hidden in a wallpaper pattern

20.07.2018 | Materials Sciences

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>