A new modeling framework suggests that climate change alone could cause a 4.5% increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths across the New York metropolitan region by the year 2050, according to a study published today in the November issue of the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Health Perspectives (EHP). When population growth and projected growth in greenhouse gas emissions are factored in, the model predicts a 59.9% increase in summer ozone-related deaths by 2050.
The larger projected impact is largely caused by expected growth in the populations most at risk. Numerous earlier studies have linked ozone with hospital admissions and emergency visits for respiratory conditions. Other recent studies have drawn a link between elevated ozone levels and mortality among residents in large cities.
This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change in specific regions. The framework was developed to better assess potential health effects of air pollution resulting from climate change. It comprises a global climate model from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, a model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality Atmospheric Chemistry Model.
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