Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Modeling Framework Projects Significant Increase in Ozone-Related Deaths

08.11.2004


A new modeling framework suggests that climate change alone could cause a 4.5% increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths across the New York metropolitan region by the year 2050, according to a study published today in the November issue of the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Health Perspectives (EHP). When population growth and projected growth in greenhouse gas emissions are factored in, the model predicts a 59.9% increase in summer ozone-related deaths by 2050.

The larger projected impact is largely caused by expected growth in the populations most at risk. Numerous earlier studies have linked ozone with hospital admissions and emergency visits for respiratory conditions. Other recent studies have drawn a link between elevated ozone levels and mortality among residents in large cities.

This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change in specific regions. The framework was developed to better assess potential health effects of air pollution resulting from climate change. It comprises a global climate model from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, a model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality Atmospheric Chemistry Model.



With the new tool, the researchers simulated hourly regional meteorologic conditions and ozone levels for five consecutive summers in the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2080s across the 31-county New York Metropolitan Area. The area incorporates the nation’s largest city, parts of northern New York, Long Island, southern Connecticut, and northeastern/central New Jersey, including an estimated 1,600 cities, towns, and villages.

“Under a variety of assumptions, climate change alone could increase regional summer ozone-related mortality by a median 4.5% in the 2050s compared with the 1990s,” the study authors write. “These assumptions do not include the effect of projected population growth. When a more fully elaborated picture of the likely regional future was evaluated, much greater changes in summer mortality are projected: Regional summer ozone-related mortality would increase by a median 59.9% in the 2050s compared with the 1990s.”

“This study takes existing climate model outputs and overlays them to project the likely future-year ozone concentrations for a specific region. By doing this, the authors were able to project a potentially significant public health impact,” said Dr. Jim Burkhart, science editor for EHP.

The lead author of the study was Kim Knowlton of the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University in New York. Other authors were Joyce E. Rosenthal, Christian Hogrefe, Barry Lynn, Stuart Gaffin, Richard Goldberg, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Kevin Civerolo, Jia-Yeong Ku, and Patrick L. Kinney.

EHP is published by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. EHP became an Open Access journal in January 2004.

| newswise
Further information:
http://www.niehs.nih.gov
http://www.ehponline.org

More articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation:

nachricht Machine learning helps predict worldwide plant-conservation priorities
04.12.2018 | Ohio State University

nachricht From the Arctic to the tropics: researchers present a unique database on Earth’s vegetation
20.11.2018 | Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg

All articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Researchers develop method to transfer entire 2D circuits to any smooth surface

What if a sensor sensing a thing could be part of the thing itself? Rice University engineers believe they have a two-dimensional solution to do just that.

Rice engineers led by materials scientists Pulickel Ajayan and Jun Lou have developed a method to make atom-flat sensors that seamlessly integrate with devices...

Im Focus: Three components on one chip

Scientists at the University of Stuttgart and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) succeed in important further development on the way to quantum Computers.

Quantum computers one day should be able to solve certain computing problems much faster than a classical computer. One of the most promising approaches is...

Im Focus: Substitute for rare earth metal oxides

New Project SNAPSTER: Novel luminescent materials by encapsulating phosphorescent metal clusters with organic liquid crystals

Nowadays energy conversion in lighting and optoelectronic devices requires the use of rare earth oxides.

Im Focus: A bit of a stretch... material that thickens as it's pulled

Scientists have discovered the first synthetic material that becomes thicker - at the molecular level - as it is stretched.

Researchers led by Dr Devesh Mistry from the University of Leeds discovered a new non-porous material that has unique and inherent "auxetic" stretching...

Im Focus: The force of the vacuum

Scientists from the Theory Department of the Max Planck Institute for the Structure and Dynamics of Matter (MPSD) at the Center for Free-Electron Laser Science (CFEL) in Hamburg have shown through theoretical calculations and computer simulations that the force between electrons and lattice distortions in an atomically thin two-dimensional superconductor can be controlled with virtual photons. This could aid the development of new superconductors for energy-saving devices and many other technical applications.

The vacuum is not empty. It may sound like magic to laypeople but it has occupied physicists since the birth of quantum mechanics.

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

EGU 2019 meeting: Media registration now open

06.12.2018 | Event News

Expert Panel on the Future of HPC in Engineering

03.12.2018 | Event News

Inaugural "Virtual World Tour" scheduled for december

28.11.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

A new molecular player involved in T cell activation

07.12.2018 | Life Sciences

High-temperature electronics? That's hot

07.12.2018 | Materials Sciences

Supercomputers without waste heat

07.12.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>