Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Small seasonal changes can lead to big flu outbreaks

16.11.2004


McMaster researcher investigates why influenza epidemics happen in the winter



Flu season is on its way to homes across Canada. But the question of why influenza epidemics take place in the few cold months of winter remains unanswered. Is it the change in the weather? The return to school? Or increased viral production under winter conditions?

The answer to the increase of flu cases may be extremely minute seasonal changes, says David Earn of the Department of Mathematics & Statistics at McMaster University. Earn, who uses mathematical models to investigate and understand how infectious diseases move through populations, recently examined the question of why most people catch the flu in the winter.


“In this study, we found that it may be difficult or even impossible to pin down the cause of seasonality in influenza epidemics,” Earn explains. “Large fluctuations in the number of flu cases between winter and other seasons may be caused by very small changes in the number of people infected by a single infectious person. These small changes in ‘transmission rate’ are amplified by interactions between the evolving virus and the changing level of immunity that people have to specific strains.”

Because the influenza virus is constantly adapting, immunity to the flu is not a permanent condition as it is with other viral diseases like chicken pox. Incorporating loss of immunity into a simple model of disease spread, Earn and colleagues at Princeton University and Harvard University found that under many scenarios, small seasonal changes in transmission rates can lead to regular, annual epidemics. Their work appeared in today’s edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Concludes Earn, “The reason that more people catch the flu in the winter appears to be that small seasonal changes in flu transmission at the individual level are greatly amplified as the disease spreads through communities. The underlying cause of seasonal fluctuations in transmission may be too small to measure.”

McMaster University, named Canada’s Research University of the Year by Research InfoSource, has world-renowned faculty and state-of-the-art research facilities. McMaster’s culture of innovation fosters a commitment to discovery and learning in teaching, research and scholarship. Based in Hamilton, the University has a student population of more than 20,000 and more than 112,000 alumni in 128 countries.

Julia Thomson | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.mcmaster.ca

More articles from Health and Medicine:

nachricht Finnish research group discovers a new immune system regulator
23.02.2018 | University of Turku

nachricht Minimising risks of transplants
22.02.2018 | Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg

All articles from Health and Medicine >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Attoseconds break into atomic interior

A newly developed laser technology has enabled physicists in the Laboratory for Attosecond Physics (jointly run by LMU Munich and the Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics) to generate attosecond bursts of high-energy photons of unprecedented intensity. This has made it possible to observe the interaction of multiple photons in a single such pulse with electrons in the inner orbital shell of an atom.

In order to observe the ultrafast electron motion in the inner shells of atoms with short light pulses, the pulses must not only be ultrashort, but very...

Im Focus: Good vibrations feel the force

A group of researchers led by Andrea Cavalleri at the Max Planck Institute for Structure and Dynamics of Matter (MPSD) in Hamburg has demonstrated a new method enabling precise measurements of the interatomic forces that hold crystalline solids together. The paper Probing the Interatomic Potential of Solids by Strong-Field Nonlinear Phononics, published online in Nature, explains how a terahertz-frequency laser pulse can drive very large deformations of the crystal.

By measuring the highly unusual atomic trajectories under extreme electromagnetic transients, the MPSD group could reconstruct how rigid the atomic bonds are...

Im Focus: Developing reliable quantum computers

International research team makes important step on the path to solving certification problems

Quantum computers may one day solve algorithmic problems which even the biggest supercomputers today can’t manage. But how do you test a quantum computer to...

Im Focus: In best circles: First integrated circuit from self-assembled polymer

For the first time, a team of researchers at the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) for Polymer Research in Mainz, Germany, has succeeded in making an integrated circuit (IC) from just a monolayer of a semiconducting polymer via a bottom-up, self-assembly approach.

In the self-assembly process, the semiconducting polymer arranges itself into an ordered monolayer in a transistor. The transistors are binary switches used...

Im Focus: Demonstration of a single molecule piezoelectric effect

Breakthrough provides a new concept of the design of molecular motors, sensors and electricity generators at nanoscale

Researchers from the Institute of Organic Chemistry and Biochemistry of the CAS (IOCB Prague), Institute of Physics of the CAS (IP CAS) and Palacký University...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

2nd International Conference on High Temperature Shape Memory Alloys (HTSMAs)

15.02.2018 | Event News

Aachen DC Grid Summit 2018

13.02.2018 | Event News

How Global Climate Policy Can Learn from the Energy Transition

12.02.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

Basque researchers turn light upside down

23.02.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

Finnish research group discovers a new immune system regulator

23.02.2018 | Health and Medicine

Attoseconds break into atomic interior

23.02.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>