Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Small seasonal changes can lead to big flu outbreaks

16.11.2004


McMaster researcher investigates why influenza epidemics happen in the winter



Flu season is on its way to homes across Canada. But the question of why influenza epidemics take place in the few cold months of winter remains unanswered. Is it the change in the weather? The return to school? Or increased viral production under winter conditions?

The answer to the increase of flu cases may be extremely minute seasonal changes, says David Earn of the Department of Mathematics & Statistics at McMaster University. Earn, who uses mathematical models to investigate and understand how infectious diseases move through populations, recently examined the question of why most people catch the flu in the winter.


“In this study, we found that it may be difficult or even impossible to pin down the cause of seasonality in influenza epidemics,” Earn explains. “Large fluctuations in the number of flu cases between winter and other seasons may be caused by very small changes in the number of people infected by a single infectious person. These small changes in ‘transmission rate’ are amplified by interactions between the evolving virus and the changing level of immunity that people have to specific strains.”

Because the influenza virus is constantly adapting, immunity to the flu is not a permanent condition as it is with other viral diseases like chicken pox. Incorporating loss of immunity into a simple model of disease spread, Earn and colleagues at Princeton University and Harvard University found that under many scenarios, small seasonal changes in transmission rates can lead to regular, annual epidemics. Their work appeared in today’s edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Concludes Earn, “The reason that more people catch the flu in the winter appears to be that small seasonal changes in flu transmission at the individual level are greatly amplified as the disease spreads through communities. The underlying cause of seasonal fluctuations in transmission may be too small to measure.”

McMaster University, named Canada’s Research University of the Year by Research InfoSource, has world-renowned faculty and state-of-the-art research facilities. McMaster’s culture of innovation fosters a commitment to discovery and learning in teaching, research and scholarship. Based in Hamilton, the University has a student population of more than 20,000 and more than 112,000 alumni in 128 countries.

Julia Thomson | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.mcmaster.ca

More articles from Health and Medicine:

nachricht Organ-on-a-chip mimics heart's biomechanical properties
23.02.2017 | Vanderbilt University

nachricht Researchers identify cause of hereditary skeletal muscle disorder
22.02.2017 | Klinikum der Universität München

All articles from Health and Medicine >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Breakthrough with a chain of gold atoms

In the field of nanoscience, an international team of physicists with participants from Konstanz has achieved a breakthrough in understanding heat transport

In the field of nanoscience, an international team of physicists with participants from Konstanz has achieved a breakthrough in understanding heat transport

Im Focus: DNA repair: a new letter in the cell alphabet

Results reveal how discoveries may be hidden in scientific “blind spots”

Cells need to repair damaged DNA in our genes to prevent the development of cancer and other diseases. Our cells therefore activate and send “repair-proteins”...

Im Focus: Dresdner scientists print tomorrow’s world

The Fraunhofer IWS Dresden and Technische Universität Dresden inaugurated their jointly operated Center for Additive Manufacturing Dresden (AMCD) with a festive ceremony on February 7, 2017. Scientists from various disciplines perform research on materials, additive manufacturing processes and innovative technologies, which build up components in a layer by layer process. This technology opens up new horizons for component design and combinations of functions. For example during fabrication, electrical conductors and sensors are already able to be additively manufactured into components. They provide information about stress conditions of a product during operation.

The 3D-printing technology, or additive manufacturing as it is often called, has long made the step out of scientific research laboratories into industrial...

Im Focus: Mimicking nature's cellular architectures via 3-D printing

Research offers new level of control over the structure of 3-D printed materials

Nature does amazing things with limited design materials. Grass, for example, can support its own weight, resist strong wind loads, and recover after being...

Im Focus: Three Magnetic States for Each Hole

Nanometer-scale magnetic perforated grids could create new possibilities for computing. Together with international colleagues, scientists from the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) have shown how a cobalt grid can be reliably programmed at room temperature. In addition they discovered that for every hole ("antidot") three magnetic states can be configured. The results have been published in the journal "Scientific Reports".

Physicist Dr. Rantej Bali from the HZDR, together with scientists from Singapore and Australia, designed a special grid structure in a thin layer of cobalt in...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Booth and panel discussion – The Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings at the AAAS 2017 Annual Meeting

13.02.2017 | Event News

Complex Loading versus Hidden Reserves

10.02.2017 | Event News

International Conference on Crystal Growth in Freiburg

09.02.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Stingless bees have their nests protected by soldiers

24.02.2017 | Life Sciences

New risk factors for anxiety disorders

24.02.2017 | Life Sciences

MWC 2017: 5G Capital Berlin

24.02.2017 | Trade Fair News

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>