Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

No relief for Pacific Northwest drought

16.03.2005


It does not appear there will be any major relief this spring or summer from the unusually dry weather that has recently hit the Pacific Northwest, according to new projections of drought severity and fire risk that are based on "general circulation" models that forecast global climate.



The analysis, which was developed by researchers at the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and Oregon State University, also shows that the northwestern part of the country will face forest and rangeland fires this year that could be unusually severe and generally the worst of any area in the nation. Wet weather has recently predominated in the Southwest, Central and Atlantic coast regions of the United States. As a result, 2005 should be a fairly mild fire season in most areas of the nation.

But the same forecasts for a period from now to August show some pockets of drought severity and associated fire risks in southern Florida, Maine and southeastern Arizona. And there is a major problem of historic proportions developing in a six-state region that includes Oregon, Washington, northern California, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. "We project that the drought severity the northwestern states are now experiencing will only get worse in coming months, and reach levels that were generally seen during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s," said Ronald Neilson, a bioclimatologist with the U.S. Forest Service and professor of botany at OSU.


Severe drought does not automatically translate into major fires, said Neilson and colleague James Lenihan, a fire and ecosystem modeler. "It takes ignition sources such as lightning storms to trigger multiple fires, and that doesn’t always happen," Lenihan said. "But those events are fairly common and, because of that, fires will often occur if vegetation, moisture and climatic conditions are right, which it appears they will be this year."

The latest consensus forecast for fire risk this spring and summer indicate huge forest and rangeland fire outbreaks in northeastern Oregon and southeastern Washington, and more isolated but severe fire potential in forests near Eugene, Roseburg, Bend and the Portland area in Oregon.

Other severe fires are forecast for parts of southwestern Idaho and parts of Montana.

Unlike short-term weather forecasts, these projections are ultimately based on long-term, global climate models and a "general vegetation model" created by researchers from the Forest Service and OSU, including the work of associate professor of geosciences Chris Daly and the OSU Spatial Climate Analysis Service.

These systems have simulated drought and fire in the American West, for instance, fairly accurately backwards in time to 1895, and can also be used to make both near-term and longer projections into the future. They are constantly updated, and now include the latest actual weather information through the end of last January.

In terms of the current projections for a tier of states in the northwestern U.S., it appears the situation is going to go from bad to worse. It bears some similarity to conditions last seen in 2001.

"We use five different global climate models as the underlying basis for our projections, and they are all showing the same thing," Neilson said. "It is going to become extremely dry in many parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountain states, and the fire risk is going to be significantly higher than normal. There is nothing to indicate a wet spring."

Fire is one obvious implication, the researchers said, but stream flows, fisheries, agriculture, recreation and industry may all be affected.

According to Lenihan, the major storms that inundated southern California and other parts of the Southwest this year have significantly reduced the fire risks in that region, at least for this year. Vegetation growth that occurs during years with heavier rains, however, can sometimes set the stage for major fires in following years if drought resumes.

The models that simulate the droughts and the likelihood of fire are complex and sometimes counter-intuitive, the researchers said, involving such things as vegetation growth, fuel loads, soil moisture, climatic trends and other factors.

"Last year was a pretty severe drought over quite a bit of the nation, but for various reasons our model didn’t really suggest a bad fire year for 2004, and in fact it was a pretty mild year," Lenihan said.

"That was fortunate, because there’s some evidence that the low-risk fire years are more difficult to predict than those with higher risk," he said. "When our models show a very high level of fire, as they do now, they are usually pretty accurate."

Ronald Neilson | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.orst.edu
http://oregonstate.edu/dept/ncs/photos/index.html

More articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation:

nachricht Litter is present throughout the world’s oceans: 1,220 species affected
27.03.2017 | Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung

nachricht International network connects experimental research in European waters
21.03.2017 | Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB)

All articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: A Challenging European Research Project to Develop New Tiny Microscopes

The Institute of Semiconductor Technology and the Institute of Physical and Theoretical Chemistry, both members of the Laboratory for Emerging Nanometrology (LENA), at Technische Universität Braunschweig are partners in a new European research project entitled ChipScope, which aims to develop a completely new and extremely small optical microscope capable of observing the interior of living cells in real time. A consortium of 7 partners from 5 countries will tackle this issue with very ambitious objectives during a four-year research program.

To demonstrate the usefulness of this new scientific tool, at the end of the project the developed chip-sized microscope will be used to observe in real-time...

Im Focus: Giant Magnetic Fields in the Universe

Astronomers from Bonn and Tautenburg in Thuringia (Germany) used the 100-m radio telescope at Effelsberg to observe several galaxy clusters. At the edges of these large accumulations of dark matter, stellar systems (galaxies), hot gas, and charged particles, they found magnetic fields that are exceptionally ordered over distances of many million light years. This makes them the most extended magnetic fields in the universe known so far.

The results will be published on March 22 in the journal „Astronomy & Astrophysics“.

Galaxy clusters are the largest gravitationally bound structures in the universe. With a typical extent of about 10 million light years, i.e. 100 times the...

Im Focus: Tracing down linear ubiquitination

Researchers at the Goethe University Frankfurt, together with partners from the University of Tübingen in Germany and Queen Mary University as well as Francis Crick Institute from London (UK) have developed a novel technology to decipher the secret ubiquitin code.

Ubiquitin is a small protein that can be linked to other cellular proteins, thereby controlling and modulating their functions. The attachment occurs in many...

Im Focus: Perovskite edges can be tuned for optoelectronic performance

Layered 2D material improves efficiency for solar cells and LEDs

In the eternal search for next generation high-efficiency solar cells and LEDs, scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory and their partners are creating...

Im Focus: Polymer-coated silicon nanosheets as alternative to graphene: A perfect team for nanoelectronics

Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are less stable. Now researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have, for the first time ever, produced a composite material combining silicon nanosheets and a polymer that is both UV-resistant and easy to process. This brings the scientists a significant step closer to industrial applications like flexible displays and photosensors.

Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

International Land Use Symposium ILUS 2017: Call for Abstracts and Registration open

20.03.2017 | Event News

CONNECT 2017: International congress on connective tissue

14.03.2017 | Event News

ICTM Conference: Turbine Construction between Big Data and Additive Manufacturing

07.03.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

'On-off switch' brings researchers a step closer to potential HIV vaccine

30.03.2017 | Health and Medicine

Penn studies find promise for innovations in liquid biopsies

30.03.2017 | Health and Medicine

An LED-based device for imaging radiation induced skin damage

30.03.2017 | Medical Engineering

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>