Tim LaRow, associate research scientist at COAPS, and his colleagues released their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
This year’s forecast calls for a 70 percent probability of 12 to 17 named storms with five to 10 of the storms developing into hurricanes. The mean forecast is 15 named storms, eight of them hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy (a measure of the strength and duration of storms accumulated during the season) of 135.
“The forecast mean numbers are identical to the observed 1995 to 2010 average named storms and hurricanes and reflect the ongoing period of heightened tropical activity in the North Atlantic,” LaRow said.
The COAPS forecast is slightly less than the official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast that predicts a 70 percent probability of 13 to 20 named storms with seven to 11 of those developing into hurricanes this season.
LaRow and his colleagues at COAPS use a numerical climate model developed at Florida State to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity. The forecast numbers are based on 50 individual seasonal atmospheric forecasts using sea surface temperatures predicted by a recently upgraded NOAA climate model.
The COAPS model is already gaining recognition for its accuracy only four years after its launch. In 2012, the forecast predicted an average of 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, and there ended up being 19 named storms and 10 hurricanes.
“Last year was unusual in that El Niño did not develop as the climate model expected,” LaRow said. “El Niño develops when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal, leading to increased wind shear in the Atlantic, which can disrupt developing tropical systems. Last year, El Niño never developed, and it is not predicted to develop this year.”
The 2011 forecast predicted an average of 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, and there were actually 19 named storms and seven hurricanes. The 2010 forecast predicted 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes, and there were actually 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The 2009 forecast predicted eight named storms and four hurricanes, and there ended up being nine named storms and three hurricanes that year.
Reforecasts conducted using data since 1982 show that the model has a mean absolute error of 1.9 hurricanes and 2.3 named storms.CONTACT: Tim LaRow, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
Tim LaRow | Newswise
UCI and NASA document accelerated glacier melting in West Antarctica
26.10.2016 | University of California - Irvine
Ice shelf vibrations cause unusual waves in Antarctic atmosphere
25.10.2016 | American Geophysical Union
Ultrafast lasers have introduced new possibilities in engraving ultrafine structures, and scientists are now also investigating how to use them to etch microstructures into thin glass. There are possible applications in analytics (lab on a chip) and especially in electronics and the consumer sector, where great interest has been shown.
This new method was born of a surprising phenomenon: irradiating glass in a particular way with an ultrafast laser has the effect of making the glass up to a...
Terahertz excitation of selected crystal vibrations leads to an effective magnetic field that drives coherent spin motion
Controlling functional properties by light is one of the grand goals in modern condensed matter physics and materials science. A new study now demonstrates how...
Researchers from the Institute for Quantum Computing (IQC) at the University of Waterloo led the development of a new extensible wiring technique capable of controlling superconducting quantum bits, representing a significant step towards to the realization of a scalable quantum computer.
"The quantum socket is a wiring method that uses three-dimensional wires based on spring-loaded pins to address individual qubits," said Jeremy Béjanin, a PhD...
In a paper in Scientific Reports, a research team at Worcester Polytechnic Institute describes a novel light-activated phenomenon that could become the basis for applications as diverse as microscopic robotic grippers and more efficient solar cells.
A research team at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) has developed a revolutionary, light-activated semiconductor nanocomposite material that can be used...
By forcefully embedding two silicon atoms in a diamond matrix, Sandia researchers have demonstrated for the first time on a single chip all the components needed to create a quantum bridge to link quantum computers together.
"People have already built small quantum computers," says Sandia researcher Ryan Camacho. "Maybe the first useful one won't be a single giant quantum computer...
14.10.2016 | Event News
14.10.2016 | Event News
12.10.2016 | Event News
27.10.2016 | Materials Sciences
27.10.2016 | Physics and Astronomy
27.10.2016 | Life Sciences