Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Past trends in hurricane activity and inferences for the future

17.02.2009
Research so far on global warming and Atlantic hurricanes indicates:
It is premature to conclude that human activity--particularly greenhouse warming--has had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricanes, and

Model simulations indicate that 21st century greenhouse warming may lead to greater numbers of very intense Atlantic hurricanes and higher hurricane rainfall rates, but fewer hurricanes overall.

Century-long basin-wide observed records of very intense Atlantic hurricanes are considered unreliable, but tropical storm and hurricane counts have been used as long-term climate indicators. Unadjusted counts of tropical storms show a significant rise from the mid to late 1800s to present, while unadjusted hurricane counts do not, due to the large number of reported hurricanes in the late 1800s.

Analysis of historical ship track records suggests that reporting coverage was likely too sparse to detect all tropical storms, and after adjusting for this bias, tropical storm counts have no significant trend over 1878-2006.

A regional downscaling atmospheric model reproduces the observed rise and year-to-year variability in hurricane counts (1980-2006) remarkably well when forced with observed sea surface temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. According to this model, the ensemble late 21st century climate change projected by current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global models implies reduced numbers of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms, due mainly to increased vertical wind shear.

Downscaling experiments with several high resolution models indicate that despite a projected reduction in overall hurricane numbers, the number and intensity of the strongest hurricanes may increase.

Ben Sherman | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.noaa.gov
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/research/climate/

More articles from Earth Sciences:

nachricht How do megacities impact coastal seas? Searching for evidence in Chinese marginal seas
11.12.2017 | Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde

nachricht What makes corals sick?
11.12.2017 | Leibniz-Zentrum für Marine Tropenforschung (ZMT)

All articles from Earth Sciences >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Scientists channel graphene to understand filtration and ion transport into cells

Tiny pores at a cell's entryway act as miniature bouncers, letting in some electrically charged atoms--ions--but blocking others. Operating as exquisitely sensitive filters, these "ion channels" play a critical role in biological functions such as muscle contraction and the firing of brain cells.

To rapidly transport the right ions through the cell membrane, the tiny channels rely on a complex interplay between the ions and surrounding molecules,...

Im Focus: Towards data storage at the single molecule level

The miniaturization of the current technology of storage media is hindered by fundamental limits of quantum mechanics. A new approach consists in using so-called spin-crossover molecules as the smallest possible storage unit. Similar to normal hard drives, these special molecules can save information via their magnetic state. A research team from Kiel University has now managed to successfully place a new class of spin-crossover molecules onto a surface and to improve the molecule’s storage capacity. The storage density of conventional hard drives could therefore theoretically be increased by more than one hundred fold. The study has been published in the scientific journal Nano Letters.

Over the past few years, the building blocks of storage media have gotten ever smaller. But further miniaturization of the current technology is hindered by...

Im Focus: Successful Mechanical Testing of Nanowires

With innovative experiments, researchers at the Helmholtz-Zentrums Geesthacht and the Technical University Hamburg unravel why tiny metallic structures are extremely strong

Light-weight and simultaneously strong – porous metallic nanomaterials promise interesting applications as, for instance, for future aeroplanes with enhanced...

Im Focus: Virtual Reality for Bacteria

An interdisciplinary group of researchers interfaced individual bacteria with a computer to build a hybrid bio-digital circuit - Study published in Nature Communications

Scientists at the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (IST Austria) have managed to control the behavior of individual bacteria by connecting them to a...

Im Focus: A space-time sensor for light-matter interactions

Physicists in the Laboratory for Attosecond Physics (run jointly by LMU Munich and the Max Planck Institute for Quantum Optics) have developed an attosecond electron microscope that allows them to visualize the dispersion of light in time and space, and observe the motions of electrons in atoms.

The most basic of all physical interactions in nature is that between light and matter. This interaction takes place in attosecond times (i.e. billionths of a...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

See, understand and experience the work of the future

11.12.2017 | Event News

Innovative strategies to tackle parasitic worms

08.12.2017 | Event News

AKL’18: The opportunities and challenges of digitalization in the laser industry

07.12.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Midwife and signpost for photons

11.12.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

How do megacities impact coastal seas? Searching for evidence in Chinese marginal seas

11.12.2017 | Earth Sciences

PhoxTroT: Optical Interconnect Technologies Revolutionized Data Centers and HPC Systems

11.12.2017 | Information Technology

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>