AMHERST, Mass. — Black holes may not be as eternal as they seem. New research from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, published in Physical Review Letters, suggests there’s a more than 90% chance that a black hole will explode within the next decade—and that our current telescopes could detect it.

Such an explosion would be the first-ever observation of a primordial black hole (PBH)—a theorized type of black hole that could have formed less than a second after the Big Bang, 13.8 billion years ago. Unlike the massive black holes left behind by dying stars, PBHs could be far smaller and lighter. As they lose mass, they heat up and release energy as Hawking radiation until they evaporate completely in a final, spectacular burst.

“The lighter a black hole is, the hotter it gets and the more particles it emits,” said Andrea Thamm, assistant professor of physics at UMass Amherst. “As primordial black holes shrink, this process speeds up until they explode. That radiation is what our telescopes can detect.”

A Glimpse of Everything That Exists

If detected, a PBH explosion would reveal every kind of particle in the universe, from known ones like electrons and quarks to hypothetical particles such as dark matter—and possibly entirely new particles unknown to science. This “particle census” could help answer a profound question: Where did everything come from?

While physicists once thought such explosions were so rare they would occur only once every 100,000 years, the UMass Amherst team re-examined the math using a “dark-QED” model—which includes a hypothetical heavy “dark electron” and allows PBHs to carry a small electric charge. Their calculations showed that charged PBHs could survive long enough to be exploding today.

“We’re not saying it’s guaranteed,” said Michael Baker, co-author and assistant professor of physics. “But based on our model, there could be a 90% chance we see one in the next ten years—and we already have the technology to detect it.”

A Once-in-History Event

Such an observation would mark the first direct detection of Hawking radiation and the first confirmed PBH.

“It would completely revolutionize physics and help us rewrite the history of the universe,” said Joaquim Iguaz Juan, postdoctoral researcher and co-author.

With their new prediction, the researchers urge the scientific community to prepare: if we are watching the sky carefully, the next decade could bring a glimpse of the earliest building blocks of reality.

Original Publication
Authors: Anonymous.
Journal: Physical Review Letters
DOI: 10.1103/nwgd-g3zl
Article Title: Could We Observe an Exploding Black Hole in the Near Future?
Article Publication Date: 10-Sep-2025