English clubs: statistically sound or struggling to score?
© AP/Martyn Hayhow
It’s official: English football teams score fewer goals.
Soccer teams worldwide are scoring more goals than they ought to be, whereas English teams seem to follow statistical expectations. The news may delight fans outside England, but it is puzzling the physicists who have found that the chance of a high-scoring game is significantly greater than it may first appear1.
John Greenhough and colleagues at Warwick University in Coventry, England, analysed the scores of over 135,000 football (soccer) games in the domestic leagues of 169 countries, played between and 1999 and 2001.
In such a random process, bigger scores become increasingly unlikely. There are more 1-1 draws or 2-0 victories than there are 6-1 victories, for example. According to the rules of statistics, the chance of a high score should become less and less likely, the higher the scores become - something called a Poisson distribution.
But physicists have known for several decades that football games are far from normal. The chance of goal scoring doesn’t stay even throughout a match, but depends on the previous number of near-goals. The Poisson distribution can be modified to allow for this, resulting in a ’negative binomial probability distribution’.
In a further analysis Greenhough and colleagues find that for English league and championship matches for the seasons 1970-1971 and 2000-2001 the total scores of all matches fit a negative binomial distribution well. In contrast, domestic matches worldwide produce many more ’extreme events’ (high scores) than predicted by this statistical distribution.
Why the difference? Does it mean that the English defence or goalkeepers are unusually good, or the strikers are unusually poor? Possibly, but there may be a statistical explanation: in terms of probability, football games may behave more like the stock market or earthquakes.
In recent years, statistical physicists have realized that probabilistic processes underlying these complex phenomena show something called strong correlations.
Correlations arise when the behaviour of one part of a system is strongly influenced by the behaviour of other parts. In football, this suggests that goals become increasingly likely as their number mounts up. Fans and players will already have an intuitive notion of the effect. When trailing by 5-0, say, a defence is more likely to ’crack’ than when the score is 2-0. Even if the teams are well matched, the game becomes more ’volatile’ if it reaches, say, 4-4: goals then begin to flow more readily.
Why English teams don’t show this effect so strongly is a question sure to provoke endless debate among armchair strategists.
PHILIP BALL | © Nature News Service
Drugs for better long-term treatment of poorly controlled asthma discovered
15.10.2019 | University of South Florida (USF Health)
Epilepsy: Seizures not forecastable as expected
25.09.2019 | Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn
Researchers have succeeded in creating an efficient quantum-mechanical light-matter interface using a microscopic cavity. Within this cavity, a single photon is emitted and absorbed up to 10 times by an artificial atom. This opens up new prospects for quantum technology, report physicists at the University of Basel and Ruhr-University Bochum in the journal Nature.
Quantum physics describes photons as light particles. Achieving an interaction between a single photon and a single atom is a huge challenge due to the tiny...
A very special kind of light is emitted by tungsten diselenide layers. The reason for this has been unclear. Now an explanation has been found at TU Wien (Vienna)
It is an exotic phenomenon that nobody was able to explain for years: when energy is supplied to a thin layer of the material tungsten diselenide, it begins to...
Researchers at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet (LMU) in Munich have explored the initial consequences of the interaction of light with molecules on the surface of nanoscopic aerosols.
The nanocosmos is constantly in motion. All natural processes are ultimately determined by the interplay between radiation and matter. Light strikes particles...
Particles that are mere nanometers in size are at the forefront of scientific research today. They come in many different shapes: rods, spheres, cubes, vesicles, S-shaped worms and even donut-like rings. What makes them worthy of scientific study is that, being so tiny, they exhibit quantum mechanical properties not possible with larger objects.
Researchers at the Center for Nanoscale Materials (CNM), a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science User Facility located at DOE's Argonne National...
A new research project at the TH Mittelhessen focusses on the development of a novel light weight design concept for leisure boats and yachts. Professor Stephan Marzi from the THM Institute of Mechanics and Materials collaborates with Krake Catamarane, which is a shipyard located in Apolda, Thuringia.
The project is set up in an international cooperation with Professor Anders Biel from Karlstad University in Sweden and the Swedish company Lamera from...
02.10.2019 | Event News
02.10.2019 | Event News
19.09.2019 | Event News
22.10.2019 | Materials Sciences
22.10.2019 | Medical Engineering
22.10.2019 | Power and Electrical Engineering