Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Corn Yield Prediction Model Uses Simple Measurements at a Specific Growth Stage

04.07.2013
The ability to predict corn yields would benefit farmers as they plan the sale of their crops and biofuel industries as they plan their operations.

A new study published in the July-August issue of Agronomy Journal describes a robust model that uses easily obtained measurements, such as plant morphology and precipitation, collected specifically at the silking growth stage of the plant. The new model could help both growers and industry maximize their profits and efficiency.


Photo courtesy of Spyridon Mourtzinis.
Measuring the stem diameter of corn crops.

Forecasting crop yield can be extremely useful for farmers. If they have an idea of the amount of yield they can expect, they can contract their corn prior to harvest, often securing a more competitive price than if they were to wait until after harvest. Likewise, industry can benefit from yield predictions by better planning the logistics of their business. But dependable forecasts can be difficult to find.

Several methods of predicting and modeling crop yields have been used in the past with varying success. Statistical models often don’t take into account characteristics of the plants, the weather, or the management practices limiting their usefulness. Some models are based on information from just a single year or location.

“When you develop a model using single location or year data, it will have limited practical applications,” explains Spyridon Mourtzinis, lead author of the study. “You don’t include variability from multiple environments.”

The new study from Mourtzinis and his co-authors from Auburn University found a more robust model for predicting both corn grain and stover yield. The model uses equations calculated with information about nitrogen fertilization rates, precipitation, and plant morphology, such as plant height, stem diameter, height of the first ear, number of forming ears, and plant population.

“Previous attempts were mainly looking at weather factors,” says Francisco Arriaga, co-author of the study and now an assistant professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “This approach has other factors included in the model, and that is an important strength.”

The timing of the measurements is also an important aspect of the model. Mourtzinis took weekly measurements from over 100 plots throughout the growing season to find the best window during which to collect data to be used in the equations. The time-consuming work paid off.

“We looked at all the vegetative states to see which one was best, and it turned out to be the R1 growth stage,” explains Arriaga. “Other models tried to take measurements earlier, but that may be why they had poor results. Things change as the season goes by, and the stage we found was the critical one.”

The R1 or silking growth stage, when silks are first visible outside the husks, is about two to two and half months before harvest. This model, then, would provide predictions early enough to affect crop prices and to allow industries to plan their operations. While even earlier predictions might be possible, they would depend on better forecasting of weather, which can greatly affect yields. Weather changes significantly throughout the growing season, and current forecasts are not dependable.

Another reason that the new model is robust is because data was collected at two different sites in Alabama over three years. The equations used in the current model, then, translated over six sets of data suggesting that it could be used in a variety of environments. Whether that is true is a goal of future experiments.

“It would be interesting to test the equations across a lot more environments now that we know which growth stage to target,” says Arriaga.

Future studies will also test the model with other corn hybrids and management practices. As more data is collected from a variety of environments and growing conditions, the authors are hopeful that the model will continue to be an accurate predictor of corn yield.

“We need to be open-minded,” says Mourtzinis. “The equations might change a bit when we get more data from more environments, but I think we can build on the current model.”

View the abstract at http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.2134/agronj2012.0393

To obtain a copy of the complete article, please contact Madeline Fisher at 608-268-3973, mfisher@sciencesocieties.org or Caroline Schneider at 608-268-3976, cschneider@sciencesocieties.org.

Spyridon Mourtzinis
szm0020@tigermail.auburn.edu
The full article is available for no charge for 30 days following the date of this summary. View the abstract at http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.2134/agronj2012.0393.

A peer-reviewed international journal of agriculture and natural resource sciences, Agronomy Journal is published six times a year by the American Society of Agronomy, with articles relating to original research in soil science, crop science, agroclimatology and agronomic modeling, production agriculture, and software. For more information visit: www.agronomy.org/publications/aj

The American Society of Agronomy (ASA) www.agronomy.org, is a scientific society helping its 8,000+ members advance the disciplines and practices of agronomy by supporting professional growth and science policy initiatives, and by providing quality, research-based publications and a variety of member services.

Madeline Fisher | Newswise
Further information:
http://www.agronomy.org

Further reports about: Agronomy Stage Acting biofuel industries crop yield growing season

More articles from Agricultural and Forestry Science:

nachricht Researchers discover natural product that could lead to new class of commercial herbicide
16.07.2018 | UCLA Samueli School of Engineering

nachricht Advance warning system via cell phone app: Avoiding extreme weather damage in agriculture
12.07.2018 | Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e.V.

All articles from Agricultural and Forestry Science >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Future electronic components to be printed like newspapers

A new manufacturing technique uses a process similar to newspaper printing to form smoother and more flexible metals for making ultrafast electronic devices.

The low-cost process, developed by Purdue University researchers, combines tools already used in industry for manufacturing metals on a large scale, but uses...

Im Focus: First evidence on the source of extragalactic particles

For the first time ever, scientists have determined the cosmic origin of highest-energy neutrinos. A research group led by IceCube scientist Elisa Resconi, spokesperson of the Collaborative Research Center SFB1258 at the Technical University of Munich (TUM), provides an important piece of evidence that the particles detected by the IceCube neutrino telescope at the South Pole originate from a galaxy four billion light-years away from Earth.

To rule out other origins with certainty, the team led by neutrino physicist Elisa Resconi from the Technical University of Munich and multi-wavelength...

Im Focus: Magnetic vortices: Two independent magnetic skyrmion phases discovered in a single material

For the first time a team of researchers have discovered two different phases of magnetic skyrmions in a single material. Physicists of the Technical Universities of Munich and Dresden and the University of Cologne can now better study and understand the properties of these magnetic structures, which are important for both basic research and applications.

Whirlpools are an everyday experience in a bath tub: When the water is drained a circular vortex is formed. Typically, such whirls are rather stable. Similar...

Im Focus: Breaking the bond: To take part or not?

Physicists working with Roland Wester at the University of Innsbruck have investigated if and how chemical reactions can be influenced by targeted vibrational excitation of the reactants. They were able to demonstrate that excitation with a laser beam does not affect the efficiency of a chemical exchange reaction and that the excited molecular group acts only as a spectator in the reaction.

A frequently used reaction in organic chemistry is nucleophilic substitution. It plays, for example, an important role in in the synthesis of new chemical...

Im Focus: New 2D Spectroscopy Methods

Optical spectroscopy allows investigating the energy structure and dynamic properties of complex quantum systems. Researchers from the University of Würzburg present two new approaches of coherent two-dimensional spectroscopy.

"Put an excitation into the system and observe how it evolves." According to physicist Professor Tobias Brixner, this is the credo of optical spectroscopy....

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

Leading experts in Diabetes, Metabolism and Biomedical Engineering discuss Precision Medicine

13.07.2018 | Event News

Conference on Laser Polishing – LaP: Fine Tuning for Surfaces

12.07.2018 | Event News

11th European Wood-based Panel Symposium 2018: Meeting point for the wood-based materials industry

03.07.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

A smart safe rechargeable zinc ion battery based on sol-gel transition electrolytes

20.07.2018 | Power and Electrical Engineering

Reversing cause and effect is no trouble for quantum computers

20.07.2018 | Information Technology

Princeton-UPenn research team finds physics treasure hidden in a wallpaper pattern

20.07.2018 | Materials Sciences

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>