Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

A new tool for identifying onset of local influenza outbreaks

20.11.2014

Just in time for flu season, biostatisticians have devised a simple yet accurate method for hospitals and public health departments to determine the onset of elevated influenza activity at the community level

Predicting the beginning of influenza outbreaks is notoriously difficult, and can affect prevention and control efforts. Now, just in time for flu season, biostatistician Nicholas Reich of the University of Massachusetts Amherst and colleagues at Johns Hopkins have devised a simple yet accurate method for hospitals and public health departments to determine the onset of elevated influenza activity at the community level.


Reich and colleagues say their new algorithm will help to signal that influenza transmission is rising in a given region and will assist public health officials, researchers, doctors and hospitals with prevention and healthcare delivery.

Credit: UMass Amherst

Hospital epidemiologists and others responsible for public health decisions do not declare the start of flu season lightly, Reich explains. In hospitals, a declaration that flu season has started comes with many extra precautions and procedures such as added gloves, masks and gowns, donning and doffing time, special decontamination procedures, increased surveillance and reduced visitor access, for example.

"There's also healthcare worker fatigue to consider," he adds, "it's a lot to ask of healthcare workers to continue these important preventative measures when they just aren't seeing a lot of flu around their workplace."

"All the extra precautions cost time and money, so you don't want to declare flu season too early. For hospitals, there is a strong incentive to define a really clear period as flu season. It does not start the moment you see the first case in the fall. If you begin the full response too early, you set yourself up for a long slog and too much effort will be spent on too few cases. You want to be as effective and efficient as possible in your preparations and response."

Details of the new open-source, publicly available tool designed by Reich, of the School of Public Health and Health Sciences at UMass Amherst, with Dr. Trish Perl of the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and others in Colorado, Florida and New York, appear in the current issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases.

The authors say their algorithm, or statistical technique, which they call Above Local Elevated Respiratory Illness Threshold (ALERT), will help to signal that influenza transmission is rising in a given region and will assist public health officials, researchers, doctors and hospitals with prevention and healthcare delivery.

ALERT should not require doctors, nurses, hospitals, clinics or public health departments to collect any new data, but instead uses routinely collected information such as weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza A cases.

To develop the new metric, Reich and colleagues used years of surveillance data of confirmed flu cases at two large hospitals in Baltimore and Denver. They obtained weekly counts of confirmed influenza A cases at the 200-bed Children's Hospital at Johns Hopkins and the 414-bed Children's Hospital of Colorado from 2001 through 2013.

They used 2001 through 2011 data to create the algorithm, then tested its performance in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons in the two locations. At Johns Hopkins, 71 and 91 percent respectively of all reported cases fell in the ALERT period, while at Colorado Children's the ALERT period captured 77 and 89 percent of all cases, the authors report. Results suggest "that the ALERT algorithm performs well at predicting the beginning and end of a seasonal period of increased influenza incidence," they add.

To use the algorithm, hospital epidemiologists upload as many years of their own institution's historical flu data as possible to the web-based ALERT applet and then "tune the dials" that control the algorithm to customize the results for their purposes, Reich says. "The more years of data you have, the better," he notes. "We have applied it in places with only three to five years of data and it's still been a useful tool, but the more years you have the more accurate it will be."

The ALERT algorithm helps users pick a threshold number of new cases per week that will signal the start of the season. But as the authors point out, choosing the right threshold poses a challenge. "To guide the user to an evidence-based decision, the ALERT algorithm summarizes data from previous years as if each of several thresholds had been applied." For each threshold, it calculates and reports a set of summary metrics, from which the user can select one that meets their local needs.

Based on local historical data inputs, the tool defines a time window or "ALERT period" when elevated incidence is estimated to occur.

Reich explains, "People will look at the output from ALERT and do a cost-benefit analysis. We don't try to do this for them, but the algorithm can help you to estimate the threshold at which you should start to think about declaring that flu season has started. And, very importantly, your staff can have a sense that it will not go on forever, but that for the next 11 or 12 weeks, for example, you'll be taking the extra precautions."

This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Janet Lathrop | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.umass.edu/

Further reports about: Amherst Colorado accurate algorithm flu flu season influenza outbreaks public health

More articles from Health and Medicine:

nachricht Millions through license revenues
27.04.2017 | Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn

nachricht New High-Performance Center Translational Medical Engineering
26.04.2017 | Fraunhofer ITEM

All articles from Health and Medicine >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Making lightweight construction suitable for series production

More and more automobile companies are focusing on body parts made of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP). However, manufacturing and repair costs must be further reduced in order to make CFRP more economical in use. Together with the Volkswagen AG and five other partners in the project HolQueSt 3D, the Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) has developed laser processes for the automatic trimming, drilling and repair of three-dimensional components.

Automated manufacturing processes are the basis for ultimately establishing the series production of CFRP components. In the project HolQueSt 3D, the LZH has...

Im Focus: Wonder material? Novel nanotube structure strengthens thin films for flexible electronics

Reflecting the structure of composites found in nature and the ancient world, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have synthesized thin carbon nanotube (CNT) textiles that exhibit both high electrical conductivity and a level of toughness that is about fifty times higher than copper films, currently used in electronics.

"The structural robustness of thin metal films has significant importance for the reliable operation of smart skin and flexible electronics including...

Im Focus: Deep inside Galaxy M87

The nearby, giant radio galaxy M87 hosts a supermassive black hole (BH) and is well-known for its bright jet dominating the spectrum over ten orders of magnitude in frequency. Due to its proximity, jet prominence, and the large black hole mass, M87 is the best laboratory for investigating the formation, acceleration, and collimation of relativistic jets. A research team led by Silke Britzen from the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany, has found strong indication for turbulent processes connecting the accretion disk and the jet of that galaxy providing insights into the longstanding problem of the origin of astrophysical jets.

Supermassive black holes form some of the most enigmatic phenomena in astrophysics. Their enormous energy output is supposed to be generated by the...

Im Focus: A Quantum Low Pass for Photons

Physicists in Garching observe novel quantum effect that limits the number of emitted photons.

The probability to find a certain number of photons inside a laser pulse usually corresponds to a classical distribution of independent events, the so-called...

Im Focus: Microprocessors based on a layer of just three atoms

Microprocessors based on atomically thin materials hold the promise of the evolution of traditional processors as well as new applications in the field of flexible electronics. Now, a TU Wien research team led by Thomas Müller has made a breakthrough in this field as part of an ongoing research project.

Two-dimensional materials, or 2D materials for short, are extremely versatile, although – or often more precisely because – they are made up of just one or a...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Expert meeting “Health Business Connect” will connect international medical technology companies

20.04.2017 | Event News

Wenn der Computer das Gehirn austrickst

18.04.2017 | Event News

7th International Conference on Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaics in Freiburg on April 3-5, 2017

03.04.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Bare bones: Making bones transparent

27.04.2017 | Life Sciences

Study offers new theoretical approach to describing non-equilibrium phase transitions

27.04.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

From volcano's slope, NASA instrument looks sky high and to the future

27.04.2017 | Earth Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>