Simulations of Hurricane Sandy with warmer ocean temperatures resulted in storms more than twice as destructive
Hurricane Sandy became the second costliest hurricane to hit the United States when it blew ashore in October 2012, killing 159 people and inflicting $71 billion in damage. Informally known as a “superstorm” after it made landfall, Sandy was so destructive largely because of its unusual size and track.
Hurricane Sandy, a day after landfall, as seen by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite. In this true color, artificial color image, north is the top, and south is the bottom of the image.
Credit: NASA image, courtesy of Norman Kuring Ocean Color Web, via WikiMedia Commons
After moving north from the tropical waters where it spawned, Sandy turned out to sea before hooking back west, growing in size and crashing head-on into the East Coast, gaining strength when it merged with an eastbound mid-latitude storm.
A new study, published by a team of scientists led by the University of Maryland’s Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, suggests that a warmer Atlantic Ocean could substantially boost the destructive power of a future superstorm like Sandy.
The researchers used a numerical model to simulate the weather patterns that created Sandy, with one key difference: a much warmer sea surface temperature, as would be expected in a world with twice as much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This simulated warmer ocean generated storms that were 50 to 160 percent more destructive than Sandy.
“This kind of experiment is not necessarily a realistic simulation, but it is along a similar path that the future climate might expect to evolve,” said William Lau, a research scientist at ESSIC in College Park, Maryland, and senior scientist emeritus at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. Lau added that sea surface temperatures could reach such elevated levels within the next 50 to 100 years.
In the model scenarios, the pool of warm water (greater than 27 degrees Celsius (or 82 degrees Fahrenheit)) in the tropical Atlantic grew to twice its actual size. The larger warm pool gave the simulated hurricanes more time to grow before they encountered colder water or land.
In the five simulations conducted by Lau and his colleagues at NASA Goddard, two hurricanes followed the same track as Sandy, hooking westward and merging with the mid-latitude storm as they hit the coast. Because of their longer exposure to the large warm pool, their winds had 50 to 80 percent more destructive power, and they brought 30 to 50 percent more heavy rain.
“We expected the storm would definitely get stronger because of much warmer sea surface temperature,” Lau said.
Each of the other three hurricanes followed a surprising and even more destructive course. In these simulations, the hurricane grew so strong that it followed a different track and didn’t collide with the mid-latitude storm. Instead, the hurricane went farther east into the open ocean before turning westward. Next, the hurricane and the mid-latitude storm rotated counterclockwise around their combined center of mass—a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect. As the mid-latitude storm rotated east, the Sandy-like storm gained strength from the Fujiwhara effect and swung westward, making landfall between Maine and Nova Scotia.
“These events are somewhat rare in occurrence, but they do exist in nature,” Lau said. “While they’re turning about each other, they interact. One just took the energy from the other.”
As a result, the three Fujiwhara-enhanced hurricanes’ destructive power peaked at 100 to 160 percent higher than Sandy, and brought as much as 180 percent more rain. And while they made landfall farther north, Lau said, their impacts could be farther-reaching and more devastating than Sandy.
“Because the size of the storm is so large, it could affect the entire Atlantic coast, not just where it makes landfall,” he predicted. “The rainfall itself is probably way out in the ocean, but the storm surge would be catastrophic.”
Lau said the usual approach to simulating a storm in a warmer climate would be to impose a prescribed sea surface temperature, and then adjust the atmospheric conditions such as air temperature, moisture and winds. The model would then be run many times, making adjustments each time in hopes of creating a Sandy-like storm. But this approach is tedious and does not guarantee meaningful results, Lau explained.
“When confronted with the question whether or not global warming contributed to Sandy, many scientists would just throw their hands up and say, ‘We cannot address the question of how hurricanes will behave in a future climate because the myriad factors affecting storm behaviors are too complex and impossible to simulate’,” Lau said. “This is the first time it was done by using known atmospheric initial conditions that gave rise to Sandy, and simply changing one important variable—in this case, the ocean temperature.”
By using this approach, Lau and colleagues created an informative—if only plausible—scenario that could help to understand how storms might behave in a future warmer climate.
Lau noted that Sandy was most likely a “perfect storm” brought about by a series of improbable coincidences. As such, it’s hard to make any definite conclusions about whether and how global warming contributed to Sandy and other recent destructive storms, he said.
“However, studies like ours can help provide informative answers to the more tractable question of how a perfect storm like Sandy would behave under warmer ocean temperatures,” Lau said. “It’s a very important line of investigation for better understanding the future of our planet.”
The American Geophysical Union is dedicated to advancing the Earth and space sciences for the benefit of humanity through its scholarly publications, conferences, and outreach programs. AGU is a not-for-profit, professional, scientific organization representing more than 60,000 members in 139 countries. Join the conversation on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and our other social media channels.
Notes for Journalists
Journalists and public information officers (PIOs) of educational and scientific institutions who have registered with AGU can download a PDF copy of the article by clicking on this link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066083/full
Or, you may order a copy of the final paper by emailing your request to Lillian Steenblik Hwang at email@example.com.
Please provide your name, the name of your publication, and your phone number.
Neither the paper nor this press release is under embargo.
“What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean”
William K. M. Lau: Research Scientist, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center 32 (ESSIC), 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740
J. Shi: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University
K. Tao: Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory, NASA/GSFC
Contact Information for the Authors:
William K. M. Lau: firstname.lastname@example.org
Lillian Steenblik Hwang
+1 (202) 777-7318
University of Maryland contact:
+1 (301) 405-9267
Lillian Steenblik Hwang | AGU American Geophysical Union
World’s oldest known oxygen oasis discovered
18.01.2018 | Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen
A close-up look at an uncommon underwater eruption
11.01.2018 | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
On the way to an intelligent laboratory, physicists from Innsbruck and Vienna present an artificial agent that autonomously designs quantum experiments. In initial experiments, the system has independently (re)discovered experimental techniques that are nowadays standard in modern quantum optical laboratories. This shows how machines could play a more creative role in research in the future.
We carry smartphones in our pockets, the streets are dotted with semi-autonomous cars, but in the research laboratory experiments are still being designed by...
What enables electrons to be transferred swiftly, for example during photosynthesis? An interdisciplinary team of researchers has worked out the details of how...
For the first time, scientists have precisely measured the effective electrical charge of a single molecule in solution. This fundamental insight of an SNSF Professor could also pave the way for future medical diagnostics.
Electrical charge is one of the key properties that allows molecules to interact. Life itself depends on this phenomenon: many biological processes involve...
At the JEC World Composite Show in Paris in March 2018, the Fraunhofer Institute for Laser Technology ILT will be focusing on the latest trends and innovations in laser machining of composites. Among other things, researchers at the booth shared with the Aachen Center for Integrative Lightweight Production (AZL) will demonstrate how lasers can be used for joining, structuring, cutting and drilling composite materials.
No other industry has attracted as much public attention to composite materials as the automotive industry, which along with the aerospace industry is a driver...
Scientists at Tokyo Institute of Technology (Tokyo Tech) and Tohoku University have developed high-quality GFO epitaxial films and systematically investigated their ferroelectric and ferromagnetic properties. They also demonstrated the room-temperature magnetocapacitance effects of these GFO thin films.
Multiferroic materials show magnetically driven ferroelectricity. They are attracting increasing attention because of their fascinating properties such as...
08.01.2018 | Event News
11.12.2017 | Event News
08.12.2017 | Event News
19.01.2018 | Materials Sciences
19.01.2018 | Health and Medicine
19.01.2018 | Physics and Astronomy