Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Distinguishing coincidence from causality: connections in the climate system

07.10.2015

Detecting how changes in one spot on Earth – in temperature, rain, wind – are linked to changes in another, far away area is key to assessing climate risks. Scientists now developed a new technique of finding out if one change can cause another change or not, and which regions are important gateways for such teleconnections. They use advanced mathematical tools for an unprecedented analysis of data from thousands of air pressure measurements.

The method now published in Nature Communications can be applied to assess geoengineering impacts as well as global effects of local extreme weather events, and can potentially also be applied to the diffusion of disturbances in financial markets, or the human brain.


Teleconnection between ENSO and Indian Ocean - exemplary selection of causal paths. For full info, see Figure 3 in the paper.

“Despite the chaos of weather you see a lot of correlations – for instance higher pressure in the East Pacific is often followed by lower pressure in the Indian Monsoon region,” says lead-author Jakob Runge of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

“However, if you take a closer look, you find that many correlations are simply due to another process driving both regions, an important example being the solar cycle. So you use elaborate statistics to reveal such spurious links, find new indirect pathways, and step by step you reconstruct a network more closely representing cause and effect.” The new tool detects where major perturbations entering the climate system have the largest global effect, and via which pathways they are conveyed.

East Pacific, Indonesia, tropical Atlantic most important

The East Pacific, Indonesia and the tropical Atlantic are the regions most important for spreading and transmitting perturbations, the scientists found. One reason is that in these regions particularly huge air masses rise high up in the atmosphere. So for instance warming in the East Pacific can disturb the Indian Monsoon, even though it is thousands of kilometers away. This can put at risk yields on which millions of small farmers and in fact large parts of the population depend.

“How to robustly distinguish coincidence from causality in complex nonlinear systems has long been a riddle,” says Jürgen Kurths, co-author and head of PIK’s Research Domain Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods. “Conventional approaches, based on pairwise association measures, in some cases showed good results. Yet these methods are rather limited. You can compare it to multiple organ failure in the human body – a real puzzle for the doctors. We’re glad that we can now present a new approach to understanding the connections, which is the basis for ideally making the whole system more resilient.”

Article: Runge, J., Petoukhov, V., Donges, J.F., Hlinka, J., Jajcay, N. Vejmelka, M., Hartman, D., Marwan, N., Palus, M., Kurths, J. (2015): Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems. Nature Communications [DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS9502]

Link to Nature Communications where the article will be published: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/index.html

Media contact:
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de
Twitter: @PIK_Climate

Weitere Informationen:

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/distinguishing-coincidence-from-c...

Mareike Schodder | Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung

More articles from Earth Sciences:

nachricht Sea ice extent sinks to record lows at both poles
23.03.2017 | NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

nachricht Less radiation in inner Van Allen belt than previously believed
21.03.2017 | DOE/Los Alamos National Laboratory

All articles from Earth Sciences >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Giant Magnetic Fields in the Universe

Astronomers from Bonn and Tautenburg in Thuringia (Germany) used the 100-m radio telescope at Effelsberg to observe several galaxy clusters. At the edges of these large accumulations of dark matter, stellar systems (galaxies), hot gas, and charged particles, they found magnetic fields that are exceptionally ordered over distances of many million light years. This makes them the most extended magnetic fields in the universe known so far.

The results will be published on March 22 in the journal „Astronomy & Astrophysics“.

Galaxy clusters are the largest gravitationally bound structures in the universe. With a typical extent of about 10 million light years, i.e. 100 times the...

Im Focus: Tracing down linear ubiquitination

Researchers at the Goethe University Frankfurt, together with partners from the University of Tübingen in Germany and Queen Mary University as well as Francis Crick Institute from London (UK) have developed a novel technology to decipher the secret ubiquitin code.

Ubiquitin is a small protein that can be linked to other cellular proteins, thereby controlling and modulating their functions. The attachment occurs in many...

Im Focus: Perovskite edges can be tuned for optoelectronic performance

Layered 2D material improves efficiency for solar cells and LEDs

In the eternal search for next generation high-efficiency solar cells and LEDs, scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory and their partners are creating...

Im Focus: Polymer-coated silicon nanosheets as alternative to graphene: A perfect team for nanoelectronics

Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are less stable. Now researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have, for the first time ever, produced a composite material combining silicon nanosheets and a polymer that is both UV-resistant and easy to process. This brings the scientists a significant step closer to industrial applications like flexible displays and photosensors.

Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are...

Im Focus: Researchers Imitate Molecular Crowding in Cells

Enzymes behave differently in a test tube compared with the molecular scrum of a living cell. Chemists from the University of Basel have now been able to simulate these confined natural conditions in artificial vesicles for the first time. As reported in the academic journal Small, the results are offering better insight into the development of nanoreactors and artificial organelles.

Enzymes behave differently in a test tube compared with the molecular scrum of a living cell. Chemists from the University of Basel have now been able to...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

International Land Use Symposium ILUS 2017: Call for Abstracts and Registration open

20.03.2017 | Event News

CONNECT 2017: International congress on connective tissue

14.03.2017 | Event News

ICTM Conference: Turbine Construction between Big Data and Additive Manufacturing

07.03.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

When Air is in Short Supply - Shedding light on plant stress reactions when oxygen runs short

23.03.2017 | Life Sciences

Researchers use light to remotely control curvature of plastics

23.03.2017 | Power and Electrical Engineering

Sea ice extent sinks to record lows at both poles

23.03.2017 | Earth Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>