Detecting how changes in one spot on Earth – in temperature, rain, wind – are linked to changes in another, far away area is key to assessing climate risks. Scientists now developed a new technique of finding out if one change can cause another change or not, and which regions are important gateways for such teleconnections. They use advanced mathematical tools for an unprecedented analysis of data from thousands of air pressure measurements.
The method now published in Nature Communications can be applied to assess geoengineering impacts as well as global effects of local extreme weather events, and can potentially also be applied to the diffusion of disturbances in financial markets, or the human brain.
“Despite the chaos of weather you see a lot of correlations – for instance higher pressure in the East Pacific is often followed by lower pressure in the Indian Monsoon region,” says lead-author Jakob Runge of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
“However, if you take a closer look, you find that many correlations are simply due to another process driving both regions, an important example being the solar cycle. So you use elaborate statistics to reveal such spurious links, find new indirect pathways, and step by step you reconstruct a network more closely representing cause and effect.” The new tool detects where major perturbations entering the climate system have the largest global effect, and via which pathways they are conveyed.
East Pacific, Indonesia, tropical Atlantic most important
The East Pacific, Indonesia and the tropical Atlantic are the regions most important for spreading and transmitting perturbations, the scientists found. One reason is that in these regions particularly huge air masses rise high up in the atmosphere. So for instance warming in the East Pacific can disturb the Indian Monsoon, even though it is thousands of kilometers away. This can put at risk yields on which millions of small farmers and in fact large parts of the population depend.
“How to robustly distinguish coincidence from causality in complex nonlinear systems has long been a riddle,” says Jürgen Kurths, co-author and head of PIK’s Research Domain Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods. “Conventional approaches, based on pairwise association measures, in some cases showed good results. Yet these methods are rather limited. You can compare it to multiple organ failure in the human body – a real puzzle for the doctors. We’re glad that we can now present a new approach to understanding the connections, which is the basis for ideally making the whole system more resilient.”
Article: Runge, J., Petoukhov, V., Donges, J.F., Hlinka, J., Jajcay, N. Vejmelka, M., Hartman, D., Marwan, N., Palus, M., Kurths, J. (2015): Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems. Nature Communications [DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS9502]
Link to Nature Communications where the article will be published: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/index.html
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
Mareike Schodder | Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Water - as the underlying driver of the Earth’s carbon cycle
17.01.2017 | Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie
Modeling magma to find copper
13.01.2017 | Université de Genève
Yersiniae cause severe intestinal infections. Studies using Yersinia pseudotuberculosis as a model organism aim to elucidate the infection mechanisms of these...
Researchers from the University of Hamburg in Germany, in collaboration with colleagues from the University of Aarhus in Denmark, have synthesized a new superconducting material by growing a few layers of an antiferromagnetic transition-metal chalcogenide on a bismuth-based topological insulator, both being non-superconducting materials.
While superconductivity and magnetism are generally believed to be mutually exclusive, surprisingly, in this new material, superconducting correlations...
Laser-driving of semimetals allows creating novel quasiparticle states within condensed matter systems and switching between different states on ultrafast time scales
Studying properties of fundamental particles in condensed matter systems is a promising approach to quantum field theory. Quasiparticles offer the opportunity...
Among the general public, solar thermal energy is currently associated with dark blue, rectangular collectors on building roofs. Technologies are needed for aesthetically high quality architecture which offer the architect more room for manoeuvre when it comes to low- and plus-energy buildings. With the “ArKol” project, researchers at Fraunhofer ISE together with partners are currently developing two façade collectors for solar thermal energy generation, which permit a high degree of design flexibility: a strip collector for opaque façade sections and a solar thermal blind for transparent sections. The current state of the two developments will be presented at the BAU 2017 trade fair.
As part of the “ArKol – development of architecturally highly integrated façade collectors with heat pipes” project, Fraunhofer ISE together with its partners...
At TU Wien, an alternative for resource intensive formwork for the construction of concrete domes was developed. It is now used in a test dome for the Austrian Federal Railways Infrastructure (ÖBB Infrastruktur).
Concrete shells are efficient structures, but not very resource efficient. The formwork for the construction of concrete domes alone requires a high amount of...
10.01.2017 | Event News
09.01.2017 | Event News
05.01.2017 | Event News
18.01.2017 | Power and Electrical Engineering
18.01.2017 | Materials Sciences
18.01.2017 | Life Sciences