For every degree Celsius that the temperature increases, the world loses 6 percent of its wheat crop, according to a new global study led by a University of Florida scientist. That’s one fourth of the annual global wheat trade, which reached 147 million tons in 2013.
Senthold Asseng, a UF professor of agricultural and biological engineering, used a computer model approach to reach the finding of temperature increases and wheat production.
Amy L. Stuart, UF/IFAS photographer
Research Assistant Jeremy Hall examines newly planted wheat at the UF/IFAS Plant Science Research and Education Unit on Jan. 13, 2015 in Citra, Florida. The world will lose 6 percent of its wheat crop for every degree Celsius that the temperature rises, according to new research led by UF/IFAS agricultural and biological engineering Professor Senthold Asseng.
“We started this with wheat, as wheat is one of the world’s most important food crops,” said Asseng, whose team’s study was published online Dec. 22 in the journal Nature Climate Change. “The simulations with the multi-crop models showed that warming is already slowing yield gains, despite observed yield increases in the past, at a majority of wheat-growing locations across the globe.”
Global food production needs to grow 60 percent by 2050 to meet the projected demand from an anticipated population of more than 9 billion people. That’s a huge agricultural challenge, complicated by temperature increases due to climate change, Asseng said.
For 20 years, scientists have been trying to estimate the effects of temperature increase and climate change on various crops and on wheat production, which accounts for 20 percent of calories consumed globally.
But different research groups came up with different results.
By pooling models, as part of the global Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), scientists found they can better predict the impact of warmer temperatures on wheat yield, said Asseng, an Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences faculty member.
Asseng led a group of 50 scientists from 15 countries who devised an ensemble of computer models to increase the accuracy of their predictions. They worked with 30 wheat crop models and tested them against field experiments. In those experiments, average season temperatures ranged from 15 to 32 degrees Celsius, or 59 to 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit.
The ensemble of models consistently simulated crop temperature responses more accurately than did any single model.
In the past 100 years, global temperatures have risen by more than 0.6 degrees and are projected to increase by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to the International Panel on Climate Change.
New heat-tolerant wheat cultivars and crop management are needed to counteract the projected yield decline, and crop models will play a major role in developing new research strategies for that, said Asseng.
The UF/IFAS scientist coordinated the study with co-author Frank Ewert, a professor with the Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation at the University of Bonn in Germany, and Pierre Martre, a senior scientist at the French national research institute INRA.
By Brad Buck, 352-294-3303, email@example.com
Source: Senthold Asseng, 352-392-1864, ext. 221, firstname.lastname@example.org
Brad Buck | newswise
Forest Management Yields Higher Productivity through Biodiversity
14.10.2016 | Technische Universität München
Farming with forests
23.09.2016 | University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences (ACES)
Ultrafast lasers have introduced new possibilities in engraving ultrafine structures, and scientists are now also investigating how to use them to etch microstructures into thin glass. There are possible applications in analytics (lab on a chip) and especially in electronics and the consumer sector, where great interest has been shown.
This new method was born of a surprising phenomenon: irradiating glass in a particular way with an ultrafast laser has the effect of making the glass up to a...
Terahertz excitation of selected crystal vibrations leads to an effective magnetic field that drives coherent spin motion
Controlling functional properties by light is one of the grand goals in modern condensed matter physics and materials science. A new study now demonstrates how...
Researchers from the Institute for Quantum Computing (IQC) at the University of Waterloo led the development of a new extensible wiring technique capable of controlling superconducting quantum bits, representing a significant step towards to the realization of a scalable quantum computer.
"The quantum socket is a wiring method that uses three-dimensional wires based on spring-loaded pins to address individual qubits," said Jeremy Béjanin, a PhD...
In a paper in Scientific Reports, a research team at Worcester Polytechnic Institute describes a novel light-activated phenomenon that could become the basis for applications as diverse as microscopic robotic grippers and more efficient solar cells.
A research team at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) has developed a revolutionary, light-activated semiconductor nanocomposite material that can be used...
By forcefully embedding two silicon atoms in a diamond matrix, Sandia researchers have demonstrated for the first time on a single chip all the components needed to create a quantum bridge to link quantum computers together.
"People have already built small quantum computers," says Sandia researcher Ryan Camacho. "Maybe the first useful one won't be a single giant quantum computer...
14.10.2016 | Event News
14.10.2016 | Event News
12.10.2016 | Event News
27.10.2016 | Materials Sciences
27.10.2016 | Physics and Astronomy
27.10.2016 | Life Sciences