Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

How scientists predicted corona's appearance during Aug. 21, 2017, total solar eclipse

28.08.2018

It was Aug. 14, 2017, just one week before the Moon would cross paths with the Sun and Earth, casting its shadow across the United States. The entire country buzzed with anticipation for the fleeting chance to see the corona, the Sun's tenuous outer atmosphere.

But the wait was uniquely nerve-wracking for a group of scientists at Predictive Science Inc., a private research company in San Diego: They had just published a prediction of what the corona would look like on Aug. 21, the day of the total solar eclipse. How would their prediction -- the result of a complex numerical model and tens of hours of computing -- compare to the real thing?


This visualization shows the Sun's three-dimensional magnetic field during one full solar rotation. The Predictive Science researchers modeled magnetic field lines in order to calculate the presence of complex structures in the corona. View animation: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/3dmagfields.gif

Credit: Predictive Science Inc./NASA Goddard, Joy Ng


Predictive Science Inc. developed a numerical model that simulated what the corona would look like during the Aug. 21, 2017, total solar eclipse. Click and drag the slider to compare a composite image generated from photographs taken on the day of the total eclipse to the model's predictions. View animation: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/eclipsemodelfade4.gif

Credit: Predictive Science Inc./Miloslav Druckmüller, Peter Aniol, Shadia Habbal/NASA Goddard, Joy Ng

"Waiting for totality, you know exactly what you've predicted and what you're expecting," Predictive Science researcher Zoran Miki? said. "Because you work with the model so much and see the prediction so many times, it's burned into your brain. There's a lot of anxiety because if you're totally wrong, it's a bit embarrassing."

The Predictive Science researchers used data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, to develop a model that simulates the corona. Their model uses measurements of magnetic fields on the Sun's surface to predict how the magnetic field shapes the corona.

Their work was supported by NASA, the National Science Foundation and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research. Miki? is the lead author of a paper summarizing their work and published in Nature Astronomy on Aug. 27, 2018.

Coronal science is deeply rooted in the history of total eclipses; even with state-of-the-art technology, it's only during a total eclipse that scientists can resolve the lowest region of the corona, just above the Sun's surface. This dynamic part of the solar atmosphere is threaded with complex magnetic fields that supply the energy for tremendous eruptions like flares and coronal mass ejections.

As particles and radiation from solar explosions travel out from the Sun, they can manifest as disturbances in near-Earth space, known as space weather. Just as variable as the weather we experience on Earth, space weather can disrupt communications signals, astronauts and satellites in orbit, or even power grids.

The ability to forecast and predict space weather -- much like we do terrestrial weather -- is critical to mitigating these impacts, and models such as Predictive Science's are key tools in the effort.

Eclipses offer a unique opportunity for researchers to test their models. By comparing the model's corona prediction to observations during the eclipse itself, they could assess and improve the performance of their models.

The model the Predictive Science team used for the August 2017 eclipse was their most complex yet in two decades of eclipse-predicting.

Greater complexity demands more computing hours, and each simulation required thousands of processers and took about two days of real time to complete. The research group ran their model on several supercomputers including facilities at the University of Texas at Austin's Texas Advanced Computer Center; the San Diego Supercomputer Center at the University of California San Diego; and the Pleiades supercomputer at the NASA Advanced Supercomputing facility at NASA's Ames Research Center in Silicon Valley, California.

In addition to SDO's maps of the Sun's magnetic field, the model used SDO observations of prominences -- snakelike structures made of cool, dense solar material that protrude from the Sun's surface. Prominences form in stressed parts of the magnetic field, where it's twisted into a rope and capable of erupting if overwound.

The researchers also included new calculations for coronal heating. We don't yet understand how the corona blazes upwards of 2 million degrees Fahrenheit, while just 1,000 miles below, the underlying surface simmers at a balmy 10,000 F. One theory proposes electromagnetic waves -- called Alfvén waves -- launched from the Sun's churning surface rush out into the corona, heating particles as they propagate outwards, a bit like how ocean waves push and accelerate surfers toward the shore.

By accounting for prominences and these tiny -- but numerous -- waves, the scientists hoped to paint an increasingly detailed portrait of the corona's complex behavior.

After the eclipse, the group found their prediction bore a striking resemblance to the Aug. 21, 2017, corona, although the model lacks many finer structures. Both the prediction and photos from the ground taken on the day of the eclipse show three helmet streamers -- immense, petal-shaped structures that form over a network of magnetic loops. The strength of the comparison supports advances in the new model.

Scientists have always known the twisted magnetic fields underlying prominences are an important part of the Sun, but the team's earlier models weren't sophisticated enough to reflect it. The same is true for the waves heating the corona. "In some sense, the model's performance tells us the new heating model is headed in the right direction," Miki? said. "It's certainly showing improved results. We should pursue and refine it further."

In the business of eclipse predictions, it helps when the Sun is quiet, or less active. In August 2017, the Sun was in one such quiet phase, moving steadily toward a period of low solar activity in its approximately 11-year cycle.

The scientists fed their model with magnetic field data collected from the Sun's Earth-facing side over the preceding 27 days -- the time it takes the Sun to complete one full rotation -- since they currently don't have a way to observe the entire spherical solar surface all at once. With that approach, measurements taken at the beginning of the 27-day period -- from parts of the Sun's surface that have subsequently rotated toward the back where they can no longer be seen -- are more likely to grow outdated than those taken at the end. But in times of diminished solar activity, the magnetic field isn't quick to change, so even 27-day-old data is useful.

One discrepancy between the prediction and the observations is a skinnier feature, called a pseudostreamer, that jets out from the Sun's upper-right. The researchers determined their model missed the pseudostreamer because the magnetic field changed in that specific region during the data collection. A different model's prediction successfully captured this pseudostreamer, Miki? said, because it appears to have estimated the magnetic field more accurately there.

"The biggest thing I take away from this is they've got a sophisticated model that looks good, but they're limited by their observations," said Alex Young, a solar scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, who wasn't involved with the study. "What the model misses is a matter of the Sun changing, and that's something they can't handle without enough observations from the right places."

Testing a model like this so thoroughly supports the idea that, with more data and diverse vantage points, scientists can better calculate the Sun's finer dynamics -- and ultimately improve their ability to forecast space weather events that can interfere with technology and astronauts in space.

Just under a year after millions glimpsed the corona themselves during the total eclipse, on Aug. 12, 2018, NASA launched Parker Solar Probe on its way to actually fly through the corona, going closer to the Sun than any spacecraft before.

Parker Solar Probe will send back to Earth observations from inside the corona itself, which researchers can add to their models, filling crucial knowledge gaps in the corona's complicated physics.

Miki? said models like theirs can complement the mission by contextualizing the spacecraft's journey through the corona. Scientists have never worked with data collected so close to the Sun. By modeling the entire corona -- the bigger picture -- researchers will provide crucial perspective on Parker's surroundings as it ventures into entirely unexplored territory.

"This is amazing science for Parker Solar Probe and from the eclipse, that shares one key purpose," said Thomas Zurbuchen, associate administrator at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "Beyond the science, this is about really advancing our understanding of and ability to predict space weather, a major impact we can have at NASA."

Lina Tran | EurekAlert!
Further information:
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/how-scientists-predicted-corona-s-appearance-during-aug-21-2017-total-solar-eclipse
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41550-018-0562-5

More articles from Physics and Astronomy:

nachricht Exotic spiraling electrons discovered by physicists
19.02.2019 | Rutgers University

nachricht Astronomers publish new sky map detecting hundreds of thousands of previously unknown galaxies
19.02.2019 | Universität Bielefeld

All articles from Physics and Astronomy >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Light from a roll – hybrid OLED creates innovative and functional luminous surfaces

Up to now, OLEDs have been used exclusively as a novel lighting technology for use in luminaires and lamps. However, flexible organic technology can offer much more: as an active lighting surface, it can be combined with a wide variety of materials, not just to modify but to revolutionize the functionality and design of countless existing products. To exemplify this, the Fraunhofer FEP together with the company EMDE development of light GmbH will be presenting hybrid flexible OLEDs integrated into textile designs within the EU-funded project PI-SCALE for the first time at LOPEC (March 19-21, 2019 in Munich, Germany) as examples of some of the many possible applications.

The Fraunhofer FEP, a provider of research and development services in the field of organic electronics, has long been involved in the development of...

Im Focus: Regensburg physicists watch electron transfer in a single molecule

For the first time, an international team of scientists based in Regensburg, Germany, has recorded the orbitals of single molecules in different charge states in a novel type of microscopy. The research findings are published under the title “Mapping orbital changes upon electron transfer with tunneling microscopy on insulators” in the prestigious journal “Nature”.

The building blocks of matter surrounding us are atoms and molecules. The properties of that matter, however, are often not set by these building blocks...

Im Focus: University of Konstanz gains new insights into the recent development of the human immune system

Scientists at the University of Konstanz identify fierce competition between the human immune system and bacterial pathogens

Cell biologists from the University of Konstanz shed light on a recent evolutionary process in the human immune system and publish their findings in the...

Im Focus: Transformation through Light

Laser physicists have taken snapshots of carbon molecules C₆₀ showing how they transform in intense infrared light

When carbon molecules C₆₀ are exposed to an intense infrared light, they change their ball-like structure to a more elongated version. This has now been...

Im Focus: Famous “sandpile model” shown to move like a traveling sand dune

Researchers at IST Austria find new property of important physical model. Results published in PNAS

The so-called Abelian sandpile model has been studied by scientists for more than 30 years to better understand a physical phenomenon called self-organized...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

Global Legal Hackathon at HAW Hamburg

11.02.2019 | Event News

The world of quantum chemistry meets in Heidelberg

30.01.2019 | Event News

Our digital society in 2040

16.01.2019 | Event News

 
Latest News

A Volcanic Binge And Its Frosty Hangover

21.02.2019 | Earth Sciences

Cleaning 4.0 in the meat processing industry – higher cleaning efficiency

21.02.2019 | Trade Fair News

New mechanisms regulating neural stem cells

21.02.2019 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>