Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Professor makes sense of chaos

08.03.2002


Research by a University of Sunderland psychologist has revealed that one in four people may have a special gift for predicting uncertainties like the weather.



Tests carried out by Professor Richard Heath, from the university’s Business School, also showed that this uncanny ability could possibly extend to the financial markets.

During his research volunteers were shown temperature figures for the previous eight days and were asked to predict the following four days.


The figures were generated on a computer. One set of numbers was part of a “chaotic” series similar to real weather patterns, while the other set was random. Random sequences are by nature unpredictable, whereas chaotic sequences follow specific rules. However, they are very hard to predict in practice.

Despite this, one in four volunteers predicted the right temperatures for the next two days. The results amazed Prof Heath who, at present, can offer no definite conclusions as to how this happened.

He says: “The results were quite unbelievable. We still have some work to do to understand what is going on in these peoples’ heads but the results are very promising. We are not talking about people being psychic. But if someone was to say that people can’t predict the future I would say I think they can.

“The prediction accuracy drops off over time, just as it seems to do in weather forecasting. But the best people got the next day’s temperature correct 80pc of the time.”

By building in checks Prof Heath excluded the possibility of people seeing any obvious patterns in the numbers. In other words, they were not able to cheat by assuming that “the weather tomorrow is likely to be the same as the weather today”.

Prof Heath is now planning studies to find out whether the skill is related to personality type or to aspects of intelligence.

If the research helps to prove that some people are sensitive to chaos patterns it could help financial institutions to identify people who could do well as financial traders.

Steve Heywood | alphagalileo
Further information:
http://www.sunderland.ac.uk/caffairs/202mar3.htm

More articles from Interdisciplinary Research:

nachricht Decoding the regulation of cell survival - A major step towards preventing neurons from dying
04.10.2018 | DFG-Forschungszentrum für Regenerative Therapien TU Dresden

nachricht New Cluster of Excellence “Centre for Tactile Internet with Human-in-the-Loop” (CeTI)
28.09.2018 | Technische Universität Dresden

All articles from Interdisciplinary Research >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: A Chip with Blood Vessels

Biochips have been developed at TU Wien (Vienna), on which tissue can be produced and examined. This allows supplying the tissue with different substances in a very controlled way.

Cultivating human cells in the Petri dish is not a big challenge today. Producing artificial tissue, however, permeated by fine blood vessels, is a much more...

Im Focus: A Leap Into Quantum Technology

Faster and secure data communication: This is the goal of a new joint project involving physicists from the University of Würzburg. The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research funds the project with 14.8 million euro.

In our digital world data security and secure communication are becoming more and more important. Quantum communication is a promising approach to achieve...

Im Focus: Research icebreaker Polarstern begins the Antarctic season

What does it look like below the ice shelf of the calved massive iceberg A68?

On Saturday, 10 November 2018, the research icebreaker Polarstern will leave its homeport of Bremerhaven, bound for Cape Town, South Africa.

Im Focus: Penn engineers develop ultrathin, ultralight 'nanocardboard'

When choosing materials to make something, trade-offs need to be made between a host of properties, such as thickness, stiffness and weight. Depending on the application in question, finding just the right balance is the difference between success and failure

Now, a team of Penn Engineers has demonstrated a new material they call "nanocardboard," an ultrathin equivalent of corrugated paper cardboard. A square...

Im Focus: Coping with errors in the quantum age

Physicists at ETH Zurich demonstrate how errors that occur during the manipulation of quantum system can be monitored and corrected on the fly

The field of quantum computation has seen tremendous progress in recent years. Bit by bit, quantum devices start to challenge conventional computers, at least...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

“3rd Conference on Laser Polishing – LaP 2018” Attracts International Experts and Users

09.11.2018 | Event News

On the brain’s ability to find the right direction

06.11.2018 | Event News

European Space Talks: Weltraumschrott – eine Gefahr für die Gesellschaft?

23.10.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

The dawn of a new era for genebanks - molecular characterisation of an entire genebank collection

13.11.2018 | Life Sciences

Fish recognize their prey by electric colors

13.11.2018 | Life Sciences

Ultrasound Connects

13.11.2018 | Awards Funding

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>