Sea ice in the Arctic does not recover

A critical minimum for Arctic sea ice can also be expected for late summer 2010. Scientists from the German “Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association (AWI)” in Bremerhaven and from “KlimaCampus” of the University of Hamburg have now published their projections in the current Sea Ice Outlook. The online publication compares the forecasts on ice cover for September 2010 prepared by around a dozen international research institutes in a scientific “competition”. The ice reaches its minimum area at this time every year.

The forecast developed by the team from KlimaCampus of the University of Hamburg, i.e. 4.7 million square kilometres (km2), is more negative than that submitted by the AWI researchers, who arrived at a figure of 5.2 million km2. Nevertheless, neither of the two research groups anticipates that the record minimum of 4.3 million km2 in 2007 will be reached.

Although Arctic ice currently has an area of ten million km2, which is half a million km2 smaller than in 2007, one cannot directly conclude a new record minimum in late summer. The present ice cover is comparable to that in June 2006, a year when more ice area remained in September than in 2007. The decisive factors for the situation in late summer, such as the ice thickness in the central Arctic and further development of the weather in summer, are not yet known, however.

There is no reason for an all-clear: scientists basically assume a long-term decrease in sea ice cover for the northern polar region in the summers of the coming decades. Even though the trend in terms of area points slightly upward (2007: 4.3 million km2, 2008: 4.68 million km2, 2009: 5.36 million km2), the Arctic ice area from 1980 to 1990 was constantly greater than seven million km2.

The two teams of scientists prepared their forecasts using different methods. Prof. Rüdiger Gerdes and his team from the Alfred Wegener Institute in conjunction with the scientific companies OASys and FastOpt jointly developed a model based on observation data from oceanic drift buoys and satellite data on ice measurement and ice movement. In the course of the summer the submitted forecast will be repeated on a monthly basis taking into account up-to-date weather data. “Currently we calculate that with 80% probability the ice cover in September will be between 4.7 and 5.7 million km2. However, the forecast will be more and more precise,” says Prof. Rüdiger Gerdes.

The forecast developed by the KlimaCampus team headed by Prof. Lars Kaleschke, on the other hand, compares the ice area on every day of the year 2010 to that on the respective day from 2009 to 2003 on the basis of satellite pictures. The number and size of the ice-free areas, so-called polynyas, are indicators for later ice development. These dark ocean areas store solar energy already in early summer and thus additionally reinforce further melting during the polar summer, in which the sun no longer disappears, up to September.

Sea Ice Outlook http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php

Notes for editorial offices:

Your contacts are:

Prof. Rüdiger Gerdes (Tel. 0471 4831-1827; e-mail: Ruediger.Gerdes@awi.de)
Prof. Lars Kaleschke (Tel. 040 – 428386518; e-mail: lars.kaleschke@zmaw.de)
Communication and Media Department of the Alfred Wegener Institute
Ralf Röchert
(Tel. 0471 – 4831 1680; e-mail: Ralf.Roechert@awi.de)
KlimaCampus of the University of Hamburg
Stephanie Janssen
(Tel. 040 – 42838 7596; e-mail: stephanie.janssen@zmaw.de).
You will find printable pictures at www.awi.de

Media Contact

Ralf Roechert EurekAlert!

More Information:

http://www.awi.de

All latest news from the category: Earth Sciences

Earth Sciences (also referred to as Geosciences), which deals with basic issues surrounding our planet, plays a vital role in the area of energy and raw materials supply.

Earth Sciences comprises subjects such as geology, geography, geological informatics, paleontology, mineralogy, petrography, crystallography, geophysics, geodesy, glaciology, cartography, photogrammetry, meteorology and seismology, early-warning systems, earthquake research and polar research.

Back to home

Comments (0)

Write a comment

Newest articles

Lighting up the future

New multidisciplinary research from the University of St Andrews could lead to more efficient televisions, computer screens and lighting. Researchers at the Organic Semiconductor Centre in the School of Physics and…

Researchers crack sugarcane’s complex genetic code

Sweet success: Scientists created a highly accurate reference genome for one of the most important modern crops and found a rare example of how genes confer disease resistance in plants….

Evolution of the most powerful ocean current on Earth

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current plays an important part in global overturning circulation, the exchange of heat and CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere, and the stability of Antarctica’s ice sheets….

Partners & Sponsors