This potential leap in destructiveness and pollution--mainly from an increase in wildfire frequency--is forecast by computer models calculating impacts of moderate global warming on western U.S. wildfire patterns and atmospheric chemistry. As fires and smoke increase, the health of people living in the region could suffer, the study's authors say.
Atmospheric scientists at Harvard University who conducted the research report that their models show the greatest future increases in area burned (75 to 175 percent) in the forests of the Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains. And, because of extra burning throughout the western U.S., one important type of smoke particle--organic carbon aerosols--would increase, on average, by about 40 percent during the roughly half-century period, they add.
Previous studies by other researchers have probed the links between climate change and fire severity in the West and elsewhere. However, the Harvard study represents the first attempt to quantify the impact of future wildfires on the air we breathe, says Jennifer Logan of Harvard's School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), who led the research. A report on the results has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, a journal of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).
"Warmer temperatures can dry out underbrush, leading to a more serious conflagration once a fire is started by lightning or human activity," notes Logan.
"Because smoke and other particles from fires adversely affect air quality, an increase in wildfires could have large impacts on human health."
To conduct the research, the team first examined a 25-year record of observed meteorology and fire statistics to identify those meteorological factors that could best predict area burned for each ecosystem in the western United States. To see how these meteorological factors would change in the future, the researchers then next ran a global climate model out to 2055, following a scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions known as A1B. This scenario, one of several devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, describes a future world with rapid economic growth and balanced energy generation from fossil and alternative fuels. Relative to the other scenarios, it leads to a moderate warming of the earth's average surface temperature, about 1.6 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050.
"By hypothesizing that the same relationships between meteorology and area burned still hold in the future, we then could predict wildfire activity and emissions from 2000 to the 2050's," explains Logan.
As a last step, the researchers used an atmospheric chemistry model to understand how the change in wildfire activity would affect air quality. This model, combining their predictions of areas burned with projected 2050s meteorology data, shows the quantities of emissions and the fates of smoke and other particles released by the future wildfires. The resulting diminished air quality could lead to smoggier skies and adversely affect those suffering from lung and heart conditions such as asthma and chronic bronchitis.
Such consequences are a "climate penalty" that diminishes the effectiveness of efforts to reduce air pollution across the United States, the researchers say. Their new work could help policymakers gauge how severe that penalty might become. In addition, the study underscores the need for a vigorous fire management plan.
The team next plans to focus on future wildfires and air quality over the densely populated areas in California and in the southwest United States.
Logan's collaborators include Research Associate Loretta Mickley and former postdocs Dominick Spracklen and Rynda Hudman, all at SEAS. Grants from the STAR (Science to Achieve Results) program of the National Center for Environmental Research of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and from NASA supported this research.Title:
aerosol concentrations in the western United States"Authors:
Anthony L. Westerling: University of California, Merced, California, USA.Contact information for authors:
Maria-Jose Vinas | American Geophysical Union
Seismic study reveals huge amount of water dragged into Earth's interior
18.12.2018 | National Science Foundation
A damming trend
17.12.2018 | Michigan State University
Researchers from the University of Basel have reported a new method that allows the physical state of just a few atoms or molecules within a network to be controlled. It is based on the spontaneous self-organization of molecules into extensive networks with pores about one nanometer in size. In the journal ‘small’, the physicists reported on their investigations, which could be of particular importance for the development of new storage devices.
Around the world, researchers are attempting to shrink data storage devices to achieve as large a storage capacity in as small a space as possible. In almost...
The more objects we make "smart," from watches to entire buildings, the greater the need for these devices to store and retrieve massive amounts of data quickly without consuming too much power.
Millions of new memory cells could be part of a computer chip and provide that speed and energy savings, thanks to the discovery of a previously unobserved...
What if, instead of turning up the thermostat, you could warm up with high-tech, flexible patches sewn into your clothes - while significantly reducing your...
A widely used diabetes medication combined with an antihypertensive drug specifically inhibits tumor growth – this was discovered by researchers from the University of Basel’s Biozentrum two years ago. In a follow-up study, recently published in “Cell Reports”, the scientists report that this drug cocktail induces cancer cell death by switching off their energy supply.
The widely used anti-diabetes drug metformin not only reduces blood sugar but also has an anti-cancer effect. However, the metformin dose commonly used in the...
A research team from the University of Zurich has developed a new drone that can retract its propeller arms in flight and make itself small to fit through narrow gaps and holes. This is particularly useful when searching for victims of natural disasters.
Inspecting a damaged building after an earthquake or during a fire is exactly the kind of job that human rescuers would like drones to do for them. A flying...
12.12.2018 | Event News
10.12.2018 | Event News
06.12.2018 | Event News
18.12.2018 | Materials Sciences
18.12.2018 | Physics and Astronomy
18.12.2018 | Physics and Astronomy