Demographic change and the changing world of work will significantly impact the labour market in coming years. A project consortium involving Fraunhofer IAO has now developed expert reports and scenarios as part of the Labour Market 2030 study to forecast how the situation might look by that time. Results are freely available as open access files.
What will the labour market look like in 20 years’ time? How can government, companies and employees master the challenges posed by demographic change and survive in the face of international competition? A new study drawn up as part of a project commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) provides answers to these questions. Fraunhofer IAO was involved in the Labour Market 2030 study, which takes a look at German labour market expertise based on scenarios and expert reports developed by the consortium.
The study outlines how mutually dependent labour markets players and political institutions in Germany are likely to deal with an international economic environment. Companies will find the publication serves as an ideal compass for strategic corporate development.
First of the forecast’s unique features is its level of detail – it is based on a labour market model that differentiates between 44 economic sectors, 88 occupational groups and 27 fields of vocational training. Second is the study’s methodically combined approach to addressing the question of what factors will determine future developments and what options to shape the labour market in future are likely to present themselves.
Before settling on their final choice of development scenario, the consortium condensed seven qualitative expert reports into two scenarios, which then formed the basis for the quantitative model calculations. Five of the project partners’ expert reports present, respectively, an analysis of trends in macroeconomic development, globalization, value creation chains, climate change and environment, and demography and education.
Fraunhofer IAO contributed two expert reports to the project – on technological innovations and on public and commercial services. Both reports highlight the potential impact the predicted developments may have on what will form the qualifications of employees and what expertise will be required of them. The reports also draw attention to how distribution of employment varies across different levels of qualification, depending on such key factors as how work is organized.
The expert reports and scenarios are available as open access files that can be downloaded in PDF form free of charge using the link provided (available in German only). The forecast study itself is available in print and will be published in English as well.
Bernd Dworschak | Fraunhofer IAO
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