Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Baker Institute research indicates China's demand for oil will equal US demand by 2040

02.12.2011
Despite aggressive demand-management policies announced in recent years, China's oil use could easily reach levels comparable to today's U.S. levels by 2040, according to a new energy study by the Baker Institute.

The study's authors said this finding has timely significance because China's growing energy use could continue to pose a major challenge for global climate deliberations in South Africa this week.

The study, "The Rise of China and Its Energy Implications," finds that China's recent efforts at centralizing energy policy do not appear to be significantly more successful than the makeshift patchwork of energy initiatives devised by the United States. In fact, the study said, the U.S. system of open and competitive private sector investment is stimulating more innovation in the American energy sector than in the Chinese energy industry, especially in the area of unconventional oil and gas.

That, ironically, is attracting Chinese state investment to U.S. shores and prompting Beijing to consider further opening of its oil and gas exploration activities to partnerships with U.S. firms, the study said.

China, like the United States, has substantial potential shale gas resources but faces technical, regulatory and market infrastructure challenges that are likely to delay rapid development. Were China to mobilize investments in shale gas more quickly, the study said, it could greatly reduce the country's expected large import needs for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Australia and the Middle East and contribute to a future glut in global natural gas markets.

Despite sporadic government policies to discourage private car ownership, the growth in the number of vehicles on the road in China has more than quadrupled in recent years to more than 50 million. The Baker Institute report projects that this number could increase to more than 200 million vehicles by 2020 and 770 million by 2040 under a scenario where China's real gross domestic product growth averages 6 percent between now and 2030. Even under a scenario where the number of electric cars rises to 5 million a year by 2030, which is in line with ambitious targets announced by China's National Development and Reform Commission, China's oil use from the transportation sector will grow significantly, the Baker Institute study said.

"Given the scale of vehicle stock growth in China, it is going to be extremely difficult to move the needle of the country's rising transport fuel outlook," said Kenneth Medlock, a study author and the James A. Baker III and Susan G. Baker Fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute.

The study noted that China's "going abroad" strategy has also encountered recent difficulties in light of geopolitical events and rising global political risks in oil-producing regions.

"China is learning that owning equity oil in risky regions may not be as effective an energy security strategy as it had previously imagined," said Amy Myers Jaffe, an author of the study and the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies at the Baker Institute. "China is now finding itself mired in more energy-related foreign diplomacy than it bargained for.

"But this could be good news for the United States," Jaffe said. "It may mean China will be more inclined to act in concert with other members of the international community in conflict-prone regions."

The study noted that China has tried to offset some of this risk by increasing investments in the United States and Canada, which gives the U.S. more leverage in seeking China's collaboration in international diplomatic matters.

More findings from the energy study will be publicly released ahead of a daylong conference at the Baker Institute Dec. 2. To view the study, go to www.bakerinstitute.org/riseofchina.

Founded in 1993, the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston ranks among the top 20 university-affiliated think tanks globally and top 30 think tanks in the United States. As a premier nonpartisan think tank, the institute sponsors more than 20 programs that conduct research on domestic and foreign policy issues with the goal of bridging the gap between the theory and practice of public policy. The institute's strong track record of achievement reflects the work of its endowed fellows and Rice University scholars. Learn more about the institute at www.bakerinstitute.org or on the institute's blog, http://blogs.chron.com/bakerblog.

David Ruth | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.rice.edu

More articles from Studies and Analyses:

nachricht Some brain tumors may respond to immunotherapy, new study suggests
11.12.2018 | Columbia University Irving Medical Center

nachricht Climate change and air pollution damaging health and causing millions of premature deaths
30.11.2018 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

All articles from Studies and Analyses >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Data use draining your battery? Tiny device to speed up memory while also saving power

The more objects we make "smart," from watches to entire buildings, the greater the need for these devices to store and retrieve massive amounts of data quickly without consuming too much power.

Millions of new memory cells could be part of a computer chip and provide that speed and energy savings, thanks to the discovery of a previously unobserved...

Im Focus: An energy-efficient way to stay warm: Sew high-tech heating patches to your clothes

Personal patches could reduce energy waste in buildings, Rutgers-led study says

What if, instead of turning up the thermostat, you could warm up with high-tech, flexible patches sewn into your clothes - while significantly reducing your...

Im Focus: Lethal combination: Drug cocktail turns off the juice to cancer cells

A widely used diabetes medication combined with an antihypertensive drug specifically inhibits tumor growth – this was discovered by researchers from the University of Basel’s Biozentrum two years ago. In a follow-up study, recently published in “Cell Reports”, the scientists report that this drug cocktail induces cancer cell death by switching off their energy supply.

The widely used anti-diabetes drug metformin not only reduces blood sugar but also has an anti-cancer effect. However, the metformin dose commonly used in the...

Im Focus: New Foldable Drone Flies through Narrow Holes in Rescue Missions

A research team from the University of Zurich has developed a new drone that can retract its propeller arms in flight and make itself small to fit through narrow gaps and holes. This is particularly useful when searching for victims of natural disasters.

Inspecting a damaged building after an earthquake or during a fire is exactly the kind of job that human rescuers would like drones to do for them. A flying...

Im Focus: Topological material switched off and on for the first time

Key advance for future topological transistors

Over the last decade, there has been much excitement about the discovery, recognised by the Nobel Prize in Physics only two years ago, that there are two types...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

ICTM Conference 2019: Digitization emerges as an engineering trend for turbomachinery construction

12.12.2018 | Event News

New Plastics Economy Investor Forum - Meeting Point for Innovations

10.12.2018 | Event News

EGU 2019 meeting: Media registration now open

06.12.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

Data use draining your battery? Tiny device to speed up memory while also saving power

14.12.2018 | Power and Electrical Engineering

Tangled magnetic fields power cosmic particle accelerators

14.12.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

In search of missing worlds, Hubble finds a fast evaporating exoplanet

14.12.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>