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Predicting Human Expectations

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25.08.2008

The invention is a model of human expectations and judgments respectively. When you show some humans the probabilities of some constituent facts and you ask them for the probability of a certain pattern of logical connected facts (e.g. 'fact 1 AND fact 2'), then human judgement often cannot be explained with classical extensional probability theory. This fact is well known as conjunction fallacy. The inventor gives a model of human judgments, validates it by experiments and gives a computer implementation. The economial relevance of this matter is clearly shown by honoring the respective work of the psychologist D. Kahneman with the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002. Fields of use are everywhere you need knowledge on human judgments, for example in market research and promotion, equity trading or in information technology in view of search tools or man-machine interfaces.

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