Predicting Human Expectations

The invention is a model of human expectations and judgments respectively. When you show some humans the probabilities of some constituent facts and you ask them for the probability of a certain pattern of logical connected facts (e.g. 'fact 1 AND fact 2'), then human judgement often cannot be explained with classical extensional probability theory. This fact is well known as conjunction fallacy. The inventor gives a model of human judgments, validates it by experiments and gives a computer implementation. The economial relevance of this matter is clearly shown by honoring the respective work of the psychologist D. Kahneman with the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002. Fields of use are everywhere you need knowledge on human judgments, for example in market research and promotion, equity trading or in information technology in view of search tools or man-machine interfaces.

Further Information: PDF

MBM ScienceBridge GmbH
Phone: (0551) 30724-151

Contact
Dr. Jens-Peter Horst

Media Contact

info@technologieallianz.de TechnologieAllianz e.V.

All latest news from the category: Technology Offerings

Back to home

Comments (0)

Write a comment

Newest articles

Lighting up the future

New multidisciplinary research from the University of St Andrews could lead to more efficient televisions, computer screens and lighting. Researchers at the Organic Semiconductor Centre in the School of Physics and…

Researchers crack sugarcane’s complex genetic code

Sweet success: Scientists created a highly accurate reference genome for one of the most important modern crops and found a rare example of how genes confer disease resistance in plants….

Evolution of the most powerful ocean current on Earth

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current plays an important part in global overturning circulation, the exchange of heat and CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere, and the stability of Antarctica’s ice sheets….

Partners & Sponsors