Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Statistics: Odds-on Brazil to Win the 2014 FIFA World Cup

04.06.2014

One of the favorites to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup is host Brazil.

However, statisticians headed by Achim Zeileis from the University of Innsbruck show that the winning margin is considerably higher for Brazil than generally expected. By applying their statistical model based on bookmakers’ odds, the researchers previously correctly predicted the 2008 EURO final, Spain as the 2010 FIFA World Cup Champion and again as the 2012 EURO Champion.


Univ.-Prof. Achim Zeileis

University of Innsbruck

After 36 years the FIFA World Cup competition returns to South America. And as in all previous South American FIFA World Cup events, a South American team is again expected to take home the victory – this time the host Brazil. These are the results of a study carried out by statistician Prof. Achim Zeileis from the University of Innsbruck and his two colleagues Dr. Christoph Leitner and Prof. Kurt Hornik from the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Vienna).

The scientists have applied a model that proved reliable in forecasting the results of the 2008 and 2012 EURO events and the 2010 FIFA World Cup: the bookmaker consensus model. To forecast the winner, they obtained long-term winning odds of 22 online bookmakers, which in combination with complex statistical models allow for the simulation of all possible courses of the tournament and results.

... more about:
»Economics »FIFA »FIFA World Cup »Statistics

According to this model, Brazil is the most likely to win the tournament with a probability of 22.5 percent. The odds to win the tournament for the three runner-ups are comparably high but the winning probability is clearly lower than the host’s: Argentina 15.8 percent, Germany 13.4 percent and Spain 11.8 percent.

All other competitors have considerably lower winning probabilities, with Belgium being the insider tip of the ‘best of the rest’ with a predicted 4.8 percent winning probability. The bookmaker model can also predict the likely teams for the final game, however, the uncertainty is much higher here: The most probable final is a match between Brazil and its neighbour Argentina (6.5 percent).

“We not only model the winner but also every possible course of the tournament. According to these models, Brazil emerges as the only team with 80 percent probability to beat almost any other team in the tournament. We are able to determine the probabilities of each team in the eight groups to proceed to the next stage in the tournament, and, eventually, the two teams in the final,” explains Achim Zeileis.

Statistical expertise and bookmaker knowledge

“Bookmakers base their odds on the most likely results. As experts they not only take historical data into account but also short-term events such as injuries,” explains the statistician. The odds are assigned in such a way that they predict the real results as accurately as possible on the one hand but also ensure profit for the bookmakers on the other hand. This system is an excellent basis for the model developed by Prof. Zeileis, Dr. Christoph Leitner and Prof. Kurt Hornik. “However, the quoted odds of the bookmakers have to be adjusted for profit margins. After that we can derive probabilities.”

In two further steps the statisticians determine the probable winner: The quoted winning odds show general winning probabilities for each team. In the next step, the scientists calculate the probability of each team to win against another team. “The tournament schedule was already known at the time the bookmakers calculated their odds, and, therefore, the winning probability of each team within its group has to be taken into account,” says Zeileis.

Together with the expectations of the bookmakers, the pairwise winning probabilities are added to the computer model, which then runs a simulation of every possible course of the tournament. “Compared to other models, ours has the advantage that it also yields ‘survival’ probabilities of each team over the course of the tournament,” explains Zeileis. “However, we are still a long way from predicting the outcome with 100 percent certainty,” adds Zeileis. Thus, we can still look forward to an exciting football tournament until the final whistle blow in Rio de Janeiro on July 13th.

Contact:
Univ.-Prof. Achim Zeileis
Institute of Statistics
University of Innsbruck
Phone: +43 512 507-7103
Email: achim.zeileis@uibk.ac.at

Mag. Stefan Hohenwarter
Public Relations Office
University of Innsbruck
Phone: +43 512 507-32023
Cell: +43 676 8725 32023
Email: stefan.hohenwarter@uibk.ac.at

Weitere Informationen:

http://EconPapers.RePEc.org/RePEc:inn:wpaper:2014-17 “Home Victory for Brazil in the 2014 FIFA World Cup” (complete study)

Mag. Stefan Hohenwarter | Universität Innsbruck

Further reports about: Economics FIFA FIFA World Cup Statistics

More articles from Statistics:

nachricht Microtechnology industry keen to invest and innovate
07.04.2016 | IVAM Fachverband für Mikrotechnik

nachricht 12.5 billion euros for non-university research in 2014
07.04.2016 | Statistisches Bundesamt

All articles from Statistics >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Nuclear Pores Captured on Film

Using an ultra fast-scanning atomic force microscope, a team of researchers from the University of Basel has filmed “living” nuclear pore complexes at work for the first time. Nuclear pores are molecular machines that control the traffic entering or exiting the cell nucleus. In their article published in Nature Nanotechnology, the researchers explain how the passage of unwanted molecules is prevented by rapidly moving molecular “tentacles” inside the pore.

Using high-speed AFM, Roderick Lim, Argovia Professor at the Biozentrum and the Swiss Nanoscience Institute of the University of Basel, has not only directly...

Im Focus: 2+1 is Not Always 3 - In the microworld unity is not always strength

If a person pushes a broken-down car alone, there is a certain effect. If another person helps, the result is the sum of their efforts. If two micro-particles are pushing another microparticle, however, the resulting effect may not necessarily be the sum their efforts. A recent study published in Nature Communications, measured this odd effect that scientists call “many body.”

In the microscopic world, where the modern miniaturized machines at the new frontiers of technology operate, as long as we are in the presence of two...

Im Focus: Tiny microbots that can clean up water

Researchers from the Max Planck Institute Stuttgart have developed self-propelled tiny ‘microbots’ that can remove lead or organic pollution from contaminated water.

Working with colleagues in Barcelona and Singapore, Samuel Sánchez’s group used graphene oxide to make their microscale motors, which are able to adsorb lead...

Im Focus: ORNL researchers discover new state of water molecule

Neutron scattering and computational modeling have revealed unique and unexpected behavior of water molecules under extreme confinement that is unmatched by any known gas, liquid or solid states.

In a paper published in Physical Review Letters, researchers at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory describe a new tunneling state of...

Im Focus: Bionic Lightweight Design researchers of the Alfred Wegener Institute at Hannover Messe 2016

Honeycomb structures as the basic building block for industrial applications presented using holo pyramid

Researchers of the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) will introduce their latest developments in the field of bionic lightweight design at Hannover Messe from 25...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

The “AC21 International Forum 2016” is About to Begin

27.04.2016 | Event News

Soft switching combines efficiency and improved electro-magnetic compatibility

15.04.2016 | Event News

Grid-Supportive Buildings Give Boost to Renewable Energy Integration

12.04.2016 | Event News

 
Latest News

Expanding tropics pushing high altitude clouds towards poles, NASA study finds

06.05.2016 | Earth Sciences

IU-led study reveals new insights into light color sensing and transfer of genetic traits

06.05.2016 | Life Sciences

Thievish hoverfly steals prey from carnivorous sundews

06.05.2016 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>