Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

The model epidemic fights against a real one

12.10.2007
There exist quite a lot of mathematical models, which describe the infectious diseases spreading process, but they do not take into account the demographic structure of a megapolis, its inhabitants’ complicated contact system. A new model developed by joint effort of researchers from the N.E. Zhukovsky Central Aerohydrodynamics Institute (TsAGI) and the Institute of Mathematical Modelling, Russian Academy of Sciences, is individual-oriented.

The new model takes everything into account - the quantity of inhabitants in the city, their sex and age, social status and family status, place of employment and relaxation: how spacious the premises are and if all employees have turned up to work today. The model also requires the data about the disease: its duration, clinical course options, if the persons who have been ill with it forms the immunity, if the persons are inoculated against the disease, what the probability of infection is in different situations. For example, at school or in public transport.

In essence, the model reproduces the day by day life of a big city to the minutest detail. How many persons have fallen ill and stayed at home, how many mothers stay with sick children but go shopping during the day and may get infected or can infect others. Out of the persons who came to work some are virus carriers. Some will bring the virus to a small-scale enterprise, but others – to a large-scale entity. The person who avoided infection during the day will go to the cinema in the evening, and there is probability that he/she will come across a virus carrier there. Some quantity of people will consult the doctor, but others – will take a sip of Coldrex – and will return to work thus infecting their colleagues. All these complicated and multiple contacts determine disease spreading and they all are taken into account by the new model.

Based on statistical data on Dresden, presented by Doctor W. Schmidt, head of statistical department of Dresden, and statistical data on Moscow, the researchers have developed a “model epidemic”. Having reviewed it in the minutest detail, they made some conclusions.

The most active part in disease spreading is played by children – schoolchildren and children in kindergartens. At that, the more children are vaccinated, the less citizens will fall ill. An important role is played by the family, which serves as an infectious bridge between various institutions of the city.

Breaking the well-known rule “once fallen ill – stay at home” leads to noticeable increase in the number of sick persons. And the custom to provide additional vacation during the epidemic does not tell on the quality of the diseased individuals, this leads only to increase in epidemic duration. Admittedly, well-chosen time for vacation will allow to assign more evenly the load on polyclinics, avoiding the peaks typical of epidemic.

The persons dealing with epidemiology will say that these are well-known facts confirmed by medical statistics. We can exclaim, “It means that the model works!” Having made sure of its capacity for work, one can model the influence of various antiepidemic measures and choose the most efficient measures.

The only “but” is that the model’s operation needs reliable demographic and statistical data per each city.

Nadezda Markina | alfa
Further information:
http://www.informnauka.ru

More articles from Social Sciences:

nachricht Internet use in class tied to lower test scores
16.12.2016 | Michigan State University

nachricht Geographers provide new insight into commuter megaregions of the US
01.12.2016 | Dartmouth College

All articles from Social Sciences >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: How gut bacteria can make us ill

HZI researchers decipher infection mechanisms of Yersinia and immune responses of the host

Yersiniae cause severe intestinal infections. Studies using Yersinia pseudotuberculosis as a model organism aim to elucidate the infection mechanisms of these...

Im Focus: Interfacial Superconductivity: Magnetic and superconducting order revealed simultaneously

Researchers from the University of Hamburg in Germany, in collaboration with colleagues from the University of Aarhus in Denmark, have synthesized a new superconducting material by growing a few layers of an antiferromagnetic transition-metal chalcogenide on a bismuth-based topological insulator, both being non-superconducting materials.

While superconductivity and magnetism are generally believed to be mutually exclusive, surprisingly, in this new material, superconducting correlations...

Im Focus: Studying fundamental particles in materials

Laser-driving of semimetals allows creating novel quasiparticle states within condensed matter systems and switching between different states on ultrafast time scales

Studying properties of fundamental particles in condensed matter systems is a promising approach to quantum field theory. Quasiparticles offer the opportunity...

Im Focus: Designing Architecture with Solar Building Envelopes

Among the general public, solar thermal energy is currently associated with dark blue, rectangular collectors on building roofs. Technologies are needed for aesthetically high quality architecture which offer the architect more room for manoeuvre when it comes to low- and plus-energy buildings. With the “ArKol” project, researchers at Fraunhofer ISE together with partners are currently developing two façade collectors for solar thermal energy generation, which permit a high degree of design flexibility: a strip collector for opaque façade sections and a solar thermal blind for transparent sections. The current state of the two developments will be presented at the BAU 2017 trade fair.

As part of the “ArKol – development of architecturally highly integrated façade collectors with heat pipes” project, Fraunhofer ISE together with its partners...

Im Focus: How to inflate a hardened concrete shell with a weight of 80 t

At TU Wien, an alternative for resource intensive formwork for the construction of concrete domes was developed. It is now used in a test dome for the Austrian Federal Railways Infrastructure (ÖBB Infrastruktur).

Concrete shells are efficient structures, but not very resource efficient. The formwork for the construction of concrete domes alone requires a high amount of...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

12V, 48V, high-voltage – trends in E/E automotive architecture

10.01.2017 | Event News

2nd Conference on Non-Textual Information on 10 and 11 May 2017 in Hannover

09.01.2017 | Event News

Nothing will happen without batteries making it happen!

05.01.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

A big nano boost for solar cells

18.01.2017 | Power and Electrical Engineering

Glass's off-kilter harmonies

18.01.2017 | Materials Sciences

Toward a 'smart' patch that automatically delivers insulin when needed

18.01.2017 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>