The new model takes everything into account - the quantity of inhabitants in the city, their sex and age, social status and family status, place of employment and relaxation: how spacious the premises are and if all employees have turned up to work today. The model also requires the data about the disease: its duration, clinical course options, if the persons who have been ill with it forms the immunity, if the persons are inoculated against the disease, what the probability of infection is in different situations. For example, at school or in public transport.
In essence, the model reproduces the day by day life of a big city to the minutest detail. How many persons have fallen ill and stayed at home, how many mothers stay with sick children but go shopping during the day and may get infected or can infect others. Out of the persons who came to work some are virus carriers. Some will bring the virus to a small-scale enterprise, but others – to a large-scale entity. The person who avoided infection during the day will go to the cinema in the evening, and there is probability that he/she will come across a virus carrier there. Some quantity of people will consult the doctor, but others – will take a sip of Coldrex – and will return to work thus infecting their colleagues. All these complicated and multiple contacts determine disease spreading and they all are taken into account by the new model.
Based on statistical data on Dresden, presented by Doctor W. Schmidt, head of statistical department of Dresden, and statistical data on Moscow, the researchers have developed a “model epidemic”. Having reviewed it in the minutest detail, they made some conclusions.
The most active part in disease spreading is played by children – schoolchildren and children in kindergartens. At that, the more children are vaccinated, the less citizens will fall ill. An important role is played by the family, which serves as an infectious bridge between various institutions of the city.
Breaking the well-known rule “once fallen ill – stay at home” leads to noticeable increase in the number of sick persons. And the custom to provide additional vacation during the epidemic does not tell on the quality of the diseased individuals, this leads only to increase in epidemic duration. Admittedly, well-chosen time for vacation will allow to assign more evenly the load on polyclinics, avoiding the peaks typical of epidemic.
The persons dealing with epidemiology will say that these are well-known facts confirmed by medical statistics. We can exclaim, “It means that the model works!” Having made sure of its capacity for work, one can model the influence of various antiepidemic measures and choose the most efficient measures.
The only “but” is that the model’s operation needs reliable demographic and statistical data per each city.
Nadezda Markina | alfa
Fixating on faces
26.01.2017 | California Institute of Technology
Internet use in class tied to lower test scores
16.12.2016 | Michigan State University
Astronomers from Bonn and Tautenburg in Thuringia (Germany) used the 100-m radio telescope at Effelsberg to observe several galaxy clusters. At the edges of these large accumulations of dark matter, stellar systems (galaxies), hot gas, and charged particles, they found magnetic fields that are exceptionally ordered over distances of many million light years. This makes them the most extended magnetic fields in the universe known so far.
The results will be published on March 22 in the journal „Astronomy & Astrophysics“.
Galaxy clusters are the largest gravitationally bound structures in the universe. With a typical extent of about 10 million light years, i.e. 100 times the...
Researchers at the Goethe University Frankfurt, together with partners from the University of Tübingen in Germany and Queen Mary University as well as Francis Crick Institute from London (UK) have developed a novel technology to decipher the secret ubiquitin code.
Ubiquitin is a small protein that can be linked to other cellular proteins, thereby controlling and modulating their functions. The attachment occurs in many...
In the eternal search for next generation high-efficiency solar cells and LEDs, scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory and their partners are creating...
Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are less stable. Now researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have, for the first time ever, produced a composite material combining silicon nanosheets and a polymer that is both UV-resistant and easy to process. This brings the scientists a significant step closer to industrial applications like flexible displays and photosensors.
Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are...
Enzymes behave differently in a test tube compared with the molecular scrum of a living cell. Chemists from the University of Basel have now been able to simulate these confined natural conditions in artificial vesicles for the first time. As reported in the academic journal Small, the results are offering better insight into the development of nanoreactors and artificial organelles.
Enzymes behave differently in a test tube compared with the molecular scrum of a living cell. Chemists from the University of Basel have now been able to...
20.03.2017 | Event News
14.03.2017 | Event News
07.03.2017 | Event News
24.03.2017 | Materials Sciences
24.03.2017 | Physics and Astronomy
24.03.2017 | Physics and Astronomy