Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Study sees U.S. retirement wealth up sharply by 2040

07.08.2007
The average value of Americans' 401(k) plans will be substantially higher in real terms by the year 2040 even if stock market returns fall short of their historical values, according to new research by a team of economists from MIT, Harvard and Dartmouth.

In a study published this week in the online early edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, James Poterba of MIT, Steven Venti of Dartmouth College and David Wise of Harvard University looked at how changes in types of pension plans and in demographic structure will affect the wealth of future retirees.

They found that if the average return on stocks for the next 35 years is three percentage points below its historical value, then the average value of 401(k) plan balances would increase from $29,700 in 2000 to $269,000 by 2040. If equity returns continue at their historical level, the average plan balance in 2040 would be even greater: $452,000 by 2040. All dollar values are measured in constant 2000 prices.

The findings challenge some bearish projections that retirement assets will drop in value in coming decades as baby-boomers cash out their holdings. The team accounted for the discrepancy by noting that their research takes into effect the continuation of pension plan shifts away from traditional defined benefit plans toward 401(k) plans--a trend that has been under way for some 30 years.

In short, because most current retirees who have assets in 401(k) plans were covered by these plans for only a fraction of their working careers, the balances at retirement for future retirees are likely to be substantially greater than those of current retirees.

This is true even if the trend toward a growing fraction of the workforce covered by 401(k) plans slows or stops, said Poterba, head of MIT's economics department and the Mitsui Professor of Economics.

"The key touchstone here is that if in fact people are in these 401(k) retirement plans for three or four decades, they will have a lot more chance to build up their assets than the current crop of retirees--many of whom have only been investing in 401(k) plans for part of their careers," Poterba said.

The paper uses data on historical participation rates in, and contribution rates to, 401(k) plans to project the future evolution of 401(k) balances for retirement-aged households.

Poterba noted several important caveats to the research, chief of which was the difficulty of trying to make accurate projections of what will happen more than three decades from now.

He also said certain demographic groups may cash out their 401(k) plans prior to retirement, meaning they will not benefit from the projected large increase in their nest eggs.

The work was funded by the Social Security Administration, the National Institute of Aging and the National Science Foundation.

Greg Frost | MIT News Office
Further information:
http://www.mit.edu

More articles from Social Sciences:

nachricht Fixating on faces
26.01.2017 | California Institute of Technology

nachricht Internet use in class tied to lower test scores
16.12.2016 | Michigan State University

All articles from Social Sciences >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: A quantum walk of photons

Physicists from the University of Würzburg are capable of generating identical looking single light particles at the push of a button. Two new studies now demonstrate the potential this method holds.

The quantum computer has fuelled the imagination of scientists for decades: It is based on fundamentally different phenomena than a conventional computer....

Im Focus: Turmoil in sluggish electrons’ existence

An international team of physicists has monitored the scattering behaviour of electrons in a non-conducting material in real-time. Their insights could be beneficial for radiotherapy.

We can refer to electrons in non-conducting materials as ‘sluggish’. Typically, they remain fixed in a location, deep inside an atomic composite. It is hence...

Im Focus: Wafer-thin Magnetic Materials Developed for Future Quantum Technologies

Two-dimensional magnetic structures are regarded as a promising material for new types of data storage, since the magnetic properties of individual molecular building blocks can be investigated and modified. For the first time, researchers have now produced a wafer-thin ferrimagnet, in which molecules with different magnetic centers arrange themselves on a gold surface to form a checkerboard pattern. Scientists at the Swiss Nanoscience Institute at the University of Basel and the Paul Scherrer Institute published their findings in the journal Nature Communications.

Ferrimagnets are composed of two centers which are magnetized at different strengths and point in opposing directions. Two-dimensional, quasi-flat ferrimagnets...

Im Focus: World's thinnest hologram paves path to new 3-D world

Nano-hologram paves way for integration of 3-D holography into everyday electronics

An Australian-Chinese research team has created the world's thinnest hologram, paving the way towards the integration of 3D holography into everyday...

Im Focus: Using graphene to create quantum bits

In the race to produce a quantum computer, a number of projects are seeking a way to create quantum bits -- or qubits -- that are stable, meaning they are not much affected by changes in their environment. This normally needs highly nonlinear non-dissipative elements capable of functioning at very low temperatures.

In pursuit of this goal, researchers at EPFL's Laboratory of Photonics and Quantum Measurements LPQM (STI/SB), have investigated a nonlinear graphene-based...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

AWK Aachen Machine Tool Colloquium 2017: Internet of Production for Agile Enterprises

23.05.2017 | Event News

Dortmund MST Conference presents Individualized Healthcare Solutions with micro and nanotechnology

22.05.2017 | Event News

Innovation 4.0: Shaping a humane fourth industrial revolution

17.05.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Devils Hole: Ancient Traces of Climate History

24.05.2017 | Earth Sciences

Discovery of a Key Regulatory Gene in Cardiac Valve Formation

24.05.2017 | Life Sciences

A CLOUD of possibilities: Finding new therapies by combining drugs

24.05.2017 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>