Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

WSU flu outbreak provides rare study material

26.08.2014

Nasty epidemic, neat science

Five years ago this month, one of the first U.S. outbreaks of the H1N1 virus swept through the Washington State University campus, striking some 2,000 people. A university math and biology professor has used a trove of data gathered at the time to gain insight into how only a few infected people could launch the virus's rapid spread across the university community.

The fall 2009 semester hadn't even started when the first cases came in to the university's Health and Wellness Services clinic—11 one day, and just two days later, 47. Not two weeks later, doctors and nurses in the clinic saw 164 H1N1 patients, attending to a total of nearly 1,000 sick people, plus hundreds more by phone. They ran out of Tamiflu, an antiviral medication.

The flu wasn't as intense as feared. People felt awful for three or four days and were close to normal within a week. No one died.

Still, WSU took on the national distinction of having one of the first and largest H1N1 outbreaks at an American college. The epidemic also gave Elissa Schwartz, an assistant professor of both math and biological sciences, an ideal phenomenon for scientific study.

At the time, Schwartz was teaching students about the behavior of epidemics in a closed population. She had her students search the scientific literature looking for studies that tracked actual epidemics in closed populations, which have no movement in our out. They found very few.

But they had a fairly closed population in Pullman, more specifically College Hill, where many students live, often in shared housing. When they do leave the house, they're on campus, in close proximity to more people. With the exception of semester breaks and the occasional road trip, they rarely leave.

"We thought, 'Oh, if we can get data on this, then that will be real live data, not simulated data, on the actual number of infections in this community,'" Schwartz recently told Washington State Magazine. "And it turned out that the Health and Wellness Services was tracking it, which was great."

To analyze the numbers, Schwartz used a computer model called FluTE, which can simulate the transmission of an influenza virus across a population and tease out things like how many became infected, how many carriers first had it and what strategies would make the biggest difference in containing its spread.

Transmissibility is measured by the R0, or R naught, a term made somewhat popular in the movie "Contagion." It's the average number of people infected by one person in a fully susceptible population.

Schwartz pegged the R naught for the Pullman outbreak at 2.2, meaning one infected person ended up passing his or her infection on to roughly two others. That's close to the rate attributed to the massive 1918 flu pandemic, which killed more people than the bubonic plague.

Schwartz's analysis also suggests the outbreak was started by as few as 20 people initially infected by the virus. It's a remarkably low number of people given the number of people who ultimately got sick.

"But given that it was spreading as fast as it was," Schwartz said, "and people were living in close proximity as they were, which means the contact rate is really high, then perhaps the number of carriers wasn't low."

Finally, Schwartz wondered what strategy might have worked best to contain the outbreak, from vaccinations to isolation to quarantines, or all of the above. Sick people were asked to isolate themselves from others, but that is difficult, Schwartz said. A sick person can still share a bathroom with others.

A quarantine would contain potentially exposed people, she said. But it would be difficult to carry out because it's unclear how to define a sick person's 'nearest neighbors' when many live in large shared houses such as fraternities, sororities or dormitories.

"Our analysis does show, though it may sound obvious, that vaccination would be the best way to control these types of infections," said Schwartz. Her study was published last year in the Journal of Biological Systems and she presented her findings in July at the Society for Mathematical Biology Annual Meeting in Osaka, Japan.

Elissa Schwartz | Eurek Alert!
Further information:
http://www.wsu.edu

Further reports about: H1N1 Health Society WSU Wellness epidemic epidemics flu infected infections outbreak

More articles from Health and Medicine:

nachricht One gene closer to regenerative therapy for muscular disorders
01.06.2017 | Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center

nachricht The gut microbiota plays a key role in treatment with classic diabetes medication
01.06.2017 | University of Gothenburg

All articles from Health and Medicine >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Can we see monkeys from space? Emerging technologies to map biodiversity

An international team of scientists has proposed a new multi-disciplinary approach in which an array of new technologies will allow us to map biodiversity and the risks that wildlife is facing at the scale of whole landscapes. The findings are published in Nature Ecology and Evolution. This international research is led by the Kunming Institute of Zoology from China, University of East Anglia, University of Leicester and the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research.

Using a combination of satellite and ground data, the team proposes that it is now possible to map biodiversity with an accuracy that has not been previously...

Im Focus: Climate satellite: Tracking methane with robust laser technology

Heatwaves in the Arctic, longer periods of vegetation in Europe, severe floods in West Africa – starting in 2021, scientists want to explore the emissions of the greenhouse gas methane with the German-French satellite MERLIN. This is made possible by a new robust laser system of the Fraunhofer Institute for Laser Technology ILT in Aachen, which achieves unprecedented measurement accuracy.

Methane is primarily the result of the decomposition of organic matter. The gas has a 25 times greater warming potential than carbon dioxide, but is not as...

Im Focus: How protons move through a fuel cell

Hydrogen is regarded as the energy source of the future: It is produced with solar power and can be used to generate heat and electricity in fuel cells. Empa researchers have now succeeded in decoding the movement of hydrogen ions in crystals – a key step towards more efficient energy conversion in the hydrogen industry of tomorrow.

As charge carriers, electrons and ions play the leading role in electrochemical energy storage devices and converters such as batteries and fuel cells. Proton...

Im Focus: A unique data centre for cosmological simulations

Scientists from the Excellence Cluster Universe at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich have establised "Cosmowebportal", a unique data centre for cosmological simulations located at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) of the Bavarian Academy of Sciences. The complete results of a series of large hydrodynamical cosmological simulations are available, with data volumes typically exceeding several hundred terabytes. Scientists worldwide can interactively explore these complex simulations via a web interface and directly access the results.

With current telescopes, scientists can observe our Universe’s galaxies and galaxy clusters and their distribution along an invisible cosmic web. From the...

Im Focus: Scientists develop molecular thermometer for contactless measurement using infrared light

Temperature measurements possible even on the smallest scale / Molecular ruby for use in material sciences, biology, and medicine

Chemists at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) in cooperation with researchers of the German Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing (BAM)...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Plants are networkers

19.06.2017 | Event News

Digital Survival Training for Executives

13.06.2017 | Event News

Global Learning Council Summit 2017

13.06.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Quantum thermometer or optical refrigerator?

23.06.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

A 100-year-old physics problem has been solved at EPFL

23.06.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

Equipping form with function

23.06.2017 | Information Technology

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>