Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Study predicts hepatitis C will become a rare disease in 22 years

05.08.2014

Computer simulation forecasts favorable trends in eradicating hepatitis C

Effective new drugs and screening would make hepatitis C a rare disease by 2036, according to a computer simulation conducted by The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center and the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health. The results of the simulation are reported in the August 5 edition of the journal Annals of Internal Medicine.


This is Jagpreet Chhatwal, Ph.D., University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center.

Credit: MD Anderson Cancer Center

"Hepatitis C (HCV) is the leading cause of liver cancer and accounts for more than 15,000 deaths in the U.S. each year," said Jagpreet Chhatwal, Ph.D., assistant professor of Health Services Research at MD Anderson, and corresponding author on the study.

"If we can improve access to treatment and incorporate more aggressive screening guidelines, we can reduce the number of chronic HCV cases, prevent more cases of liver cancer and reduce liver-related deaths," Chhatwal said.

HCV – a virus transmitted through the blood – is spread by sharing of needles, the use of contaminated medical equipment, and by tattoo and piercing equipment that has not been fully sterilized. Those at the highest risk for exposure are baby boomers – people born between 1945 and 1965. Widespread screening of the U.S. blood supply for hepatitis C began in 1992. A majority of people were infected through blood transfusions or organ transplants before 1992.

... more about:
»Cancer »HCV »Health »blood »infected »liver »therapies

Baby boomers account for 75 percent of the estimated 2.7 to 3.9 million people infected in the United States. Half of people with the virus are not aware they are infected. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force now recommend a one-time HCV screening for this population group.

In this study, Chhatwal and his collaborators used a mathematical model with information from several sources including more than 30 clinical trials to predict the impact of new therapies called "direct-acting antivirals" and the use of screening for chronic HCV cases.

Researchers developed a computer model to analyze and predict disease trends from 2001 to 2050. The model was validated with historical data including a recently published national survey on HCV prevalence. Researchers predicted with new screening guidelines and therapies, HCV will only affect one in 1,500 people in the U.S. by 2036.

The model predicts one-time HCV screening of baby boomers would help identify 487,000 cases over the next 10 years.

"Though impactful, the new screening guideline does not identity the large number of HCV patients who would progress to advanced disease stages without treatment and could die," Chhatwal said.

"Making hepatitis C a rare disease would be a tremendous, life-saving accomplishment," said lead author Mina Kabiri, a doctoral student at the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health. "However, to do this, we will need improved access to care and increased treatment capacity, primarily in the form of primary care physicians who can manage the care of infected people identified through increased screening."

In this study, researchers predicted a one-time universal screening could identify 933,700 HCV cases. Chhatwal and his colleagues also predict the universal screening and timely treatment can make HCV a rare disease in the next 12 years. Such screening can further prevent:

  • 161,500 liver related deaths,
  • 13,900 liver transplants and
  • 96,300 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma – the most common type of liver cancer. 

Chhatwal, whose current research focuses on evaluations of cancer prevention strategies using quantitative methods, says the availability of highly effective therapies and screening updates provide a great opportunity to tackle the hepatitis C epidemic. "But we need to ensure that we provide timely and affordable access to treatment to achieve the potential benefits."

"The new treatment that costs $1,000 a day has been a subject of debate and can become a barrier to timely access to all patients," Chhatwal said.

"Although recent screening recommendations are helpful in decreasing the chronic HCV infection rates, more aggressive screening recommendations and ongoing therapeutic advances are essential to reducing the burden, preventing liver-related deaths and eventually eradicating HCV," Chhatwal said.

###

The National Institutes of Health (KL2TR000146) funded this research.

Other researchers contributing to this study include Mark Roberts, M.D. of the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health; Alison Jazwinski, M.D. of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, and Andrew Schaefer, Ph.D. of University of Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering.

Katrina Burton | Eurek Alert!
Further information:
http://www.mdanderson.org/

Further reports about: Cancer HCV Health blood infected liver therapies

More articles from Health and Medicine:

nachricht Using DNA origami to build nanodevices of the future
31.08.2015 | Institute for Integrated Cell-Material Sciences at Kyoto University

nachricht An ounce of prevention: Research advances on 'scourge' of transplant wards
28.08.2015 | University of Wisconsin-Madison

All articles from Health and Medicine >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: How wind sculpted Earth's largest dust deposit

China's Loess Plateau was formed by wind alternately depositing dust or removing dust over the last 2.6 million years, according to a new report from University of Arizona geoscientists. The study is the first to explain how the steep-fronted plateau formed.

China's Loess Plateau was formed by wind alternately depositing dust or removing dust over the last 2.6 million years, according to a new report from...

Im Focus: An engineered surface unsticks sticky water droplets

The leaves of the lotus flower, and other natural surfaces that repel water and dirt, have been the model for many types of engineered liquid-repelling surfaces. As slippery as these surfaces are, however, tiny water droplets still stick to them. Now, Penn State researchers have developed nano/micro-textured, highly slippery surfaces able to outperform these naturally inspired coatings, particularly when the water is a vapor or tiny droplets.

Enhancing the mobility of liquid droplets on rough surfaces could improve condensation heat transfer for power-plant heat exchangers, create more efficient...

Im Focus: Increasingly severe disturbances weaken world's temperate forests

Longer, more severe, and hotter droughts and a myriad of other threats, including diseases and more extensive and severe wildfires, are threatening to transform some of the world's temperate forests, a new study published in Science has found. Without informed management, some forests could convert to shrublands or grasslands within the coming decades.

"While we have been trying to manage for resilience of 20th century conditions, we realize now that we must prepare for transformations and attempt to ease...

Im Focus: OU astrophysicist and collaborators find supermassive black holes in quasar nearest Earth

A University of Oklahoma astrophysicist and his Chinese collaborator have found two supermassive black holes in Markarian 231, the nearest quasar to Earth, using observations from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope.

The discovery of two supermassive black holes--one larger one and a second, smaller one--are evidence of a binary black hole and suggests that supermassive...

Im Focus: What would a tsunami in the Mediterranean look like?

A team of European researchers have developed a model to simulate the impact of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and applied it to the Eastern Mediterranean. The results show how tsunami waves could hit and inundate coastal areas in southern Italy and Greece. The study is published today (27 August) in Ocean Science, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

Though not as frequent as in the Pacific and Indian oceans, tsunamis also occur in the Mediterranean, mainly due to earthquakes generated when the African...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Networking conference in Heidelberg for outstanding mathematicians and computer scientists

20.08.2015 | Event News

Scientists meet in Münster for the world’s largest Chitin und Chitosan Conference

20.08.2015 | Event News

Large agribusiness management strategies

19.08.2015 | Event News

 
Latest News

How to get rid of a satellite after its retirement

02.09.2015 | Physics and Astronomy

Expanded CNC programming software for operations planning, training and sales

02.09.2015 | Trade Fair News

Orang-utan females prefer cheek-padded males

02.09.2015 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>