New sepsis model may help shape patient care
A new mathematical model of sepsis can help predict deaths, discharges, and disease progression in hospital patients with this serious bacterial blood infection. It’s hoped the model, described in the online open access journal Critical Care, will help clinicians assess which interventions are likely to be best for their patients.
Mark S. Roberts and colleagues from the University of Pittsburgh used data from a large, multi-centre study to develop their dynamic microsimulation model. This included information on admission date, movement between wards, trips to the intensive care unit, discharge, deaths and disease progression from more than 1,800 patients with pneumonia-related sepsis.
They found that their model closely predicts changing health and the pattern and number of discharges and deaths in patients over a 30-day period. There were 1,776 discharges in the original multi-centre study, and based on the precision of its patient-matching algorithms, the model predicted between 1,779 and 1,804. The model forecast between 62 and 84 of the 85 patients who actually died[MSR1]. The researchers also found the simulation model could predict not only the number but also the pattern of events over time, although the ability to predict when deaths and discharges occur over time varies.
The model has certain advantages over predecessors, which assume a constant rate of disease progression, and often don’t incorporate past clinical history. The result is a more powerful model that can help predict the individual course and outcome of disease. Sepsis affects approximately 750,000 people in the US alone every year, and around a third of these die. With the ability to influence clinical decisions and patient outcomes, this makes the new simulation technique a powerful tool.
Press Officer | alfa
The most recent press releases about innovation >>>
Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:
New success for Konstanz physicists in studying the quantum vacuum
An important step towards a completely new experimental access to quantum physics has been made at University of Konstanz. The team of scientists headed by...
HZI researchers decipher infection mechanisms of Yersinia and immune responses of the host
Yersiniae cause severe intestinal infections. Studies using Yersinia pseudotuberculosis as a model organism aim to elucidate the infection mechanisms of these...
Researchers from the University of Hamburg in Germany, in collaboration with colleagues from the University of Aarhus in Denmark, have synthesized a new superconducting material by growing a few layers of an antiferromagnetic transition-metal chalcogenide on a bismuth-based topological insulator, both being non-superconducting materials.
While superconductivity and magnetism are generally believed to be mutually exclusive, surprisingly, in this new material, superconducting correlations...
Laser-driving of semimetals allows creating novel quasiparticle states within condensed matter systems and switching between different states on ultrafast time scales
Studying properties of fundamental particles in condensed matter systems is a promising approach to quantum field theory. Quasiparticles offer the opportunity...
Among the general public, solar thermal energy is currently associated with dark blue, rectangular collectors on building roofs. Technologies are needed for aesthetically high quality architecture which offer the architect more room for manoeuvre when it comes to low- and plus-energy buildings. With the “ArKol” project, researchers at Fraunhofer ISE together with partners are currently developing two façade collectors for solar thermal energy generation, which permit a high degree of design flexibility: a strip collector for opaque façade sections and a solar thermal blind for transparent sections. The current state of the two developments will be presented at the BAU 2017 trade fair.
As part of the “ArKol – development of architecturally highly integrated façade collectors with heat pipes” project, Fraunhofer ISE together with its partners...