Scientists Develop Malaria Forecasting Tool To Predict Disease Risk
A new tool to predict epidemics of malaria up to five months in advance has been developed by a scientist at the University of Liverpool.
The model uses predictions of climate variability to indicate the level of risk of an epidemic up to five months in advance of the peak malaria season – the earliest point at which predictions have ever been made. The model will assist doctors and health care providers in preventing and controlling the disease.
Malaria is one of the world’s deadliest diseases, killing more than one million people every year, as well as infecting a further 500 million worldwide. The mosquito-borne illness is endemic in several regions globally, but is most acute in Africa, home to an estimated 90 per cent of all cases.
Dr Andy Morse from the Department of Geography and colleagues from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting; Columbia University, New York and the Ministry of Health in Botswana, based their early-warning model on population vulnerability, rainfall and health surveillance data and then used forthcoming season forecasts for rainfall to predict unusual changes in the seasonal pattern of disease in Botswana. The team based their study on Botswana as its climate makes it susceptible to malaria epidemics.
Dr Morse said: “The risk of an epidemic in tropical countries such as Botswana increases dramatically shortly after a season of good rainfall – when the heat and humidity allow mosquito populations to thrive. By using a number of climate models, we were able to compose weather predictions for such countries, which could then be used to calculate the severity of an epidemic, months before its occurrence.”
The team created a prediction system using seven, state-of-the-art, global climate models which produce weather forecasts up to six months in advance. The system allows researchers to assess the probable effect of weather conditions on a malaria epidemic.
Joanna Robotham | alfa
The most recent press releases about innovation >>>
Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:
An international team of scientists has proposed a new multi-disciplinary approach in which an array of new technologies will allow us to map biodiversity and the risks that wildlife is facing at the scale of whole landscapes. The findings are published in Nature Ecology and Evolution. This international research is led by the Kunming Institute of Zoology from China, University of East Anglia, University of Leicester and the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research.
Using a combination of satellite and ground data, the team proposes that it is now possible to map biodiversity with an accuracy that has not been previously...
Heatwaves in the Arctic, longer periods of vegetation in Europe, severe floods in West Africa – starting in 2021, scientists want to explore the emissions of the greenhouse gas methane with the German-French satellite MERLIN. This is made possible by a new robust laser system of the Fraunhofer Institute for Laser Technology ILT in Aachen, which achieves unprecedented measurement accuracy.
Methane is primarily the result of the decomposition of organic matter. The gas has a 25 times greater warming potential than carbon dioxide, but is not as...
Hydrogen is regarded as the energy source of the future: It is produced with solar power and can be used to generate heat and electricity in fuel cells. Empa researchers have now succeeded in decoding the movement of hydrogen ions in crystals – a key step towards more efficient energy conversion in the hydrogen industry of tomorrow.
As charge carriers, electrons and ions play the leading role in electrochemical energy storage devices and converters such as batteries and fuel cells. Proton...
Scientists from the Excellence Cluster Universe at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich have establised "Cosmowebportal", a unique data centre for cosmological simulations located at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) of the Bavarian Academy of Sciences. The complete results of a series of large hydrodynamical cosmological simulations are available, with data volumes typically exceeding several hundred terabytes. Scientists worldwide can interactively explore these complex simulations via a web interface and directly access the results.
With current telescopes, scientists can observe our Universe’s galaxies and galaxy clusters and their distribution along an invisible cosmic web. From the...
Temperature measurements possible even on the smallest scale / Molecular ruby for use in material sciences, biology, and medicine
Chemists at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) in cooperation with researchers of the German Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing (BAM)...