Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Countries may need to "give up" swine flu vaccine to most vulnerable countries, reveals new research

19.10.2009
* Countries should be prepared to sacrifice their vaccines in a coordinated fashion - it might be in their best interests
* Lack of centralized, global coordination to contain the spread of infection may result in significantly greater infections

As countries begin stockpiling swine flu vaccines to deal with an anticipated "second wave" outbreak, research from the European School of Management & Technology (ESMT) in Berlin and Duke University in North Carolina warns that countries should be prepared to sacrifice their vaccines to more vulnerable countries in the face of a critical outbreak.

The research suggests that this may prove the best method of minimizing the total number of people infected globally and containing the spread of the disease across geographies.

The study uses a sophisticated mathematical model that represents the dynamics of an epidemic taking hold, factoring in the character of initial infections, the spread of the disease and drug efficacy. Using economic 'game theory', the research models how countries with drug supplies should respond to an epidemic in a neighboring country with little or no supplies of their own, when the objective is to protect their respective populations.

While accepting the political cost of sacrificing supplies to other nations, the research concludes that at the very least some countries will have to face up to the reality of giving up all their drug stockpiles to contain the pandemic globally. The ideal solution would be centralized decision-making and deployment of drugs, by an agency such as the World Health Organization (WHO). In this area, the study highlights the fundamental tension that world governments will face in effectively combating a global outbreak: the current lack of centralized control.

The research concludes that having a centralized planner take ownership and allocate drugs to the country first affected by outbreak would result in the best global containment of infection, and typically benefit all countries including those giving up drugs. Yet as richer nations begin to stockpile vaccines to deal with a national outbreak, the reality is that individual nations will be faced with the decentralized decision about whether or not to give away their supplies.

To be effective all countries will need to be prepared to give up their supplies, as only one or two nations' sacrifice would be futile. Moreover, the likelihood is that decentralized decision-making will leave countries locked in a 'prisoner's dilemma' - watching one another's actions, where no-one is prepared to make the first move. The research's modeling shows that only in half of these cases would individual countries reach the same decision as a central planner, resulting in around double the number of global infections than if centralized co-ordination were possible.

Francis de Véricourt, Professor at the European School of Management & Technology, explains: "Drug allocation will not be as effective when the decision-makers are individual governments, which in turn will dramatically increase the chance of infection from abroad. What is needed is for nations to come together and agree a shared drug allocation strategy. In reality, this is in their 'selfish' best interest as it will result in the best chance of arresting the spread of the disease including, potentially, to their own shores. Nonetheless, the political risk of sacrificing vaccines is clearly enormous. The inefficiency of decentralized action is not necessarily about free-riding off the generosity of another state - it is the very real and difficult decision facing political leaders about how best to act."

Recent events have shown that some progress is being made towards more centralized thinking, with nine countries (including the US and UK) pledging to give up 10 per cent of their supplies to help fight the spread of infection internationally. At present, the majority of drugs have been purchased by richer nations considered at less risk, with most vaccines being produced in Western Europe, North America and Japan. However, the UN has called for much greater donation, claiming that £900m needs to be raised to help poorer nations fight the onset of a global epidemic that could kill millions. According to flucount.org, the number of reported H1N1 infections now stands at 473,774 across the globe. At the start of this week, the site reported that 352 people had died from H1N1 deaths in the previous seven days - an increase of 9.3% on the previous week.

Francis de Véricourt concludes:
"The outcome of our study is clearly disturbing because while it is apparent that centralized drug allocation is the best solution worldwide, it can sometimes result in significant discrepancies between nations. Where the central planner's drug allocation typically benefits all countries, our research still highlights circumstances where a centralized decision would hurt some drug-possessing countries. Certain countries stand to benefit considerably while others could actually suffer a greater number of infections, or worse fatalities, than if they had acted purely in their own interests and hoarded their supplies. This is a global crisis which requires some global thinking. A common objective is critical."
Should you wish to speak to Francis de Véricourt, or find out more information about the study, please contact:
Contact
Kristin Dolgner
Tel.: +49 (0)30 21231-1066
kristin.dolgner@esmt.org
Martha Ihlbrock
Tel.: +49 (0)30 21231-1043
martha.ihlbrock@esmt.org
About ESMT
ESMT European School of Management and Technology was founded in October 2002 by 25 leading global companies and institutions. The international business school offers Full-time MBA and Executive MBA programs, as well as executive education in the form of open enrollment and customized programs. The School also features in-house research-oriented consulting services in the areas of competition and regulation. ESMT is a private university based in Berlin, Germany, with an additional location in Schloss Gracht near Cologne.

Martha Ihlbrock | idw
Further information:
http://www.esmt.org

More articles from Health and Medicine:

nachricht Nanoparticles as a Solution against Antibiotic Resistance?
15.12.2017 | Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena

nachricht Plasmonic biosensors enable development of new easy-to-use health tests
14.12.2017 | Aalto University

All articles from Health and Medicine >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Error-free into the Quantum Computer Age

A study carried out by an international team of researchers and published in the journal Physical Review X shows that ion-trap technologies available today are suitable for building large-scale quantum computers. The scientists introduce trapped-ion quantum error correction protocols that detect and correct processing errors.

In order to reach their full potential, today’s quantum computer prototypes have to meet specific criteria: First, they have to be made bigger, which means...

Im Focus: Search for planets with Carmenes successful

German and Spanish researchers plan, build and use modern spectrograph

Since 2016, German and Spanish researchers, among them scientists from the University of Göttingen, have been hunting for exoplanets with the “Carmenes”...

Im Focus: First-of-its-kind chemical oscillator offers new level of molecular control

DNA molecules that follow specific instructions could offer more precise molecular control of synthetic chemical systems, a discovery that opens the door for engineers to create molecular machines with new and complex behaviors.

Researchers have created chemical amplifiers and a chemical oscillator using a systematic method that has the potential to embed sophisticated circuit...

Im Focus: Long-lived storage of a photonic qubit for worldwide teleportation

MPQ scientists achieve long storage times for photonic quantum bits which break the lower bound for direct teleportation in a global quantum network.

Concerning the development of quantum memories for the realization of global quantum networks, scientists of the Quantum Dynamics Division led by Professor...

Im Focus: Electromagnetic water cloak eliminates drag and wake

Detailed calculations show water cloaks are feasible with today's technology

Researchers have developed a water cloaking concept based on electromagnetic forces that could eliminate an object's wake, greatly reducing its drag while...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

See, understand and experience the work of the future

11.12.2017 | Event News

Innovative strategies to tackle parasitic worms

08.12.2017 | Event News

AKL’18: The opportunities and challenges of digitalization in the laser industry

07.12.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

The body's street sweepers

18.12.2017 | Life Sciences

Fast flowing heat in layered material heterostructures

18.12.2017 | Materials Sciences

Life on the edge prepares plants for climate change

18.12.2017 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>