IEM Opens Congressional Control Prediction Market for 2010 Elections
The Iowa Electronic Markets has opened a Congressional control prediction market, giving traders the opportunity to predict the party alignment of Congress after next year's mid-term elections.
Three markets are open on the Congressional control market. In two of them, traders can buy and sell contracts that will predict whether the Democrats will gain seats in each of the Senate and House of Representatives, maintain its current number of seats, or lose seats to the Republicans.
In the third market, traders can buy and sell contracts based on overall control of Congress. Four contracts are available for trade on the market: Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate; Democrats control both the House and Senate; Republicans control the House and Democrats control the Senate; Republicans control the Senate and Democrats control the House.
Payoffs will be determined based on which party controls the most seats in each chamber at the start of the 111th Congress in January 2011.
The Iowa Electronic Markets is a real-money political futures prediction market operated by the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business. All contracts are priced between zero cents and 1 dollar, so the current price of any contract is the probability of that event occurring.
Begun in 1988, the IEM is a research and teaching tool that has achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls. Such markets have been significantly more accurate than traditional tools in predicting outcomes ranging from political election results to movie box office receipts.
Price quotes, account opening instructions and prospectuses are available online at the IEM's Web site at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/. Traders are strongly advised to read the prospectus before opening an account.
Current prices/probabilities can be viewed online at http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Congress10_quotes.html
Joyce Berg | Newswise Science News
The most recent press releases about innovation >>>
Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:
An international team of scientists has proposed a new multi-disciplinary approach in which an array of new technologies will allow us to map biodiversity and the risks that wildlife is facing at the scale of whole landscapes. The findings are published in Nature Ecology and Evolution. This international research is led by the Kunming Institute of Zoology from China, University of East Anglia, University of Leicester and the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research.
Using a combination of satellite and ground data, the team proposes that it is now possible to map biodiversity with an accuracy that has not been previously...
Heatwaves in the Arctic, longer periods of vegetation in Europe, severe floods in West Africa – starting in 2021, scientists want to explore the emissions of the greenhouse gas methane with the German-French satellite MERLIN. This is made possible by a new robust laser system of the Fraunhofer Institute for Laser Technology ILT in Aachen, which achieves unprecedented measurement accuracy.
Methane is primarily the result of the decomposition of organic matter. The gas has a 25 times greater warming potential than carbon dioxide, but is not as...
Hydrogen is regarded as the energy source of the future: It is produced with solar power and can be used to generate heat and electricity in fuel cells. Empa researchers have now succeeded in decoding the movement of hydrogen ions in crystals – a key step towards more efficient energy conversion in the hydrogen industry of tomorrow.
As charge carriers, electrons and ions play the leading role in electrochemical energy storage devices and converters such as batteries and fuel cells. Proton...
Scientists from the Excellence Cluster Universe at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich have establised "Cosmowebportal", a unique data centre for cosmological simulations located at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) of the Bavarian Academy of Sciences. The complete results of a series of large hydrodynamical cosmological simulations are available, with data volumes typically exceeding several hundred terabytes. Scientists worldwide can interactively explore these complex simulations via a web interface and directly access the results.
With current telescopes, scientists can observe our Universe’s galaxies and galaxy clusters and their distribution along an invisible cosmic web. From the...
Temperature measurements possible even on the smallest scale / Molecular ruby for use in material sciences, biology, and medicine
Chemists at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) in cooperation with researchers of the German Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing (BAM)...