Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

How to forecast a tsunami?

02.06.2006


Mathematicians from Novosibirsk and Krasnoyarsk, working on a joint project with American colleagues (sponsored by the CRDF and the Federal Agency for Science and Innovations (Rosnauka)) have improved the tsunami forecasting system. To this end, they applied the method of the so-called circulation of tsunami data obtained in a real-time mode. This newest method is based on the latest results achieved by researchers in the theory and numerical algorithms of inverse problem solution.



A tsunami, which means “a wave in a harbor” in Japanese, is a grandiose sight with disastrous effects. It can be caused by the underwater earthquake and a volcano’s work, or even by falling of a large landslip or a huge piece of ice. The majority of tsunamis originate from the Pacific Ocean. This ocean is not “pacific” at all, as more than three fourths of all active volcanoes of the Earth are hidden on its bottom. Unfortunately, tsunami forecasting remains a complicated task, waters continue to take away hundreds of thousands of lives. Firstly, not every earthquake results in a tsunami, secondly, dangerous waves are not seen from ships or satellites in the majority of cases. Sometimes, the waves running at an aircraft’s speed are small at the depth but they turn into billows near the coast.

Researchers are trying to determine how and where the tsunami will spread and how dangerous it can be to coastal zone inhabitants. To this end, firstly, tsunami recorders and tsunamometers should be installed in the ocean. By the way, such devices have been installed by the US environment protection laboratory - P?EL NOAA - in seven points of the Pacific Ocean. They allow to transmit up to 98 percent of data and to measure tsunamis with the amplitude of less than one centimeter. Once the first tsunami data becomes available, it should be processed quickly and accurately with the help of mathematical models, the forecast should be made and people should be warned about possible danger.


A group of Siberian researchers (the Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk State University, Krasnoyarsk, etc.) has developed such software module. Special algorithm determines the tsunami source by processing records from deep-water oceanic receivers. The researchers built the software into the tsunami forecast system and tested it – the method worked perfectly well. The first calculations are performed right after the first wave reaches the closest tsunami analysis station. This provides the first order forecast. When the wave reaches the next station, the computations are repeated for both stations thus obtaining the second order forecast and so on.

However, the researchers say that the preliminary calculation system still needs significant improvement. They developed three new independent circulation methods for tsunami forecasting. “The methods applied to tsunami data circulation can also be used for investigation of the problem of optimal recording station placement in the ocean. Additional stations should be installed in locations that provide the most effective forecast”, says Mikhail Lavrenev, Russian project manager.

To raise the tsunami forecasting quality, the researchers suggest that the models should include special algorithm for determining initial shift in tsunami source based on two-dimensional inverse problem solution. This algorithm allows to restore the tsunami source by records of its waves at recently created stations. The researches claim that the development of neuronet software module will help to define more precisely the initial shift in the source.

Russian scientists’ large-scale project intended to improve the tsunami forecasting quality will also assist in finding appropriate locations for placement of new deep-water oceanic stations. The researchers are planning to test new investigations at the Pacific and Alaska tsunami notification centers.

Sergey Komarov | alfa
Further information:
http://www.informnauka.ru

More articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation:

nachricht Dispersal of Fish Eggs by Water Birds – Just a Myth?
19.02.2018 | Universität Basel

nachricht Removing fossil fuel subsidies will not reduce CO2 emissions as much as hoped
08.02.2018 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

All articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Molecules Brilliantly Illuminated

Physicists at the Laboratory for Attosecond Physics, which is jointly run by Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität and the Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics, have developed a high-power laser system that generates ultrashort pulses of light covering a large share of the mid-infrared spectrum. The researchers envisage a wide range of applications for the technology – in the early diagnosis of cancer, for instance.

Molecules are the building blocks of life. Like all other organisms, we are made of them. They control our biorhythm, and they can also reflect our state of...

Im Focus: Spider silk key to new bone-fixing composite

University of Connecticut researchers have created a biodegradable composite made of silk fibers that can be used to repair broken load-bearing bones without the complications sometimes presented by other materials.

Repairing major load-bearing bones such as those in the leg can be a long and uncomfortable process.

Im Focus: Writing and deleting magnets with lasers

Study published in the journal ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces is the outcome of an international effort that included teams from Dresden and Berlin in Germany, and the US.

Scientists at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) together with colleagues from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin (HZB) and the University of Virginia...

Im Focus: Gamma-ray flashes from plasma filaments

Novel highly efficient and brilliant gamma-ray source: Based on model calculations, physicists of the Max PIanck Institute for Nuclear Physics in Heidelberg propose a novel method for an efficient high-brilliance gamma-ray source. A giant collimated gamma-ray pulse is generated from the interaction of a dense ultra-relativistic electron beam with a thin solid conductor. Energetic gamma-rays are copiously produced as the electron beam splits into filaments while propagating across the conductor. The resulting gamma-ray energy and flux enable novel experiments in nuclear and fundamental physics.

The typical wavelength of light interacting with an object of the microcosm scales with the size of this object. For atoms, this ranges from visible light to...

Im Focus: Basel researchers succeed in cultivating cartilage from stem cells

Stable joint cartilage can be produced from adult stem cells originating from bone marrow. This is made possible by inducing specific molecular processes occurring during embryonic cartilage formation, as researchers from the University and University Hospital of Basel report in the scientific journal PNAS.

Certain mesenchymal stem/stromal cells from the bone marrow of adults are considered extremely promising for skeletal tissue regeneration. These adult stem...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

Invitation to the upcoming "Current Topics in Bioinformatics: Big Data in Genomics and Medicine"

13.04.2018 | Event News

Unique scope of UV LED technologies and applications presented in Berlin: ICULTA-2018

12.04.2018 | Event News

IWOLIA: A conference bringing together German Industrie 4.0 and French Industrie du Futur

09.04.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

Structured light and nanomaterials open new ways to tailor light at the nanoscale

23.04.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

On the shape of the 'petal' for the dissipation curve

23.04.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

Clean and Efficient – Fraunhofer ISE Presents Hydrogen Technologies at the HANNOVER MESSE 2018

23.04.2018 | Trade Fair News

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>