Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

How to forecast a tsunami?

02.06.2006


Mathematicians from Novosibirsk and Krasnoyarsk, working on a joint project with American colleagues (sponsored by the CRDF and the Federal Agency for Science and Innovations (Rosnauka)) have improved the tsunami forecasting system. To this end, they applied the method of the so-called circulation of tsunami data obtained in a real-time mode. This newest method is based on the latest results achieved by researchers in the theory and numerical algorithms of inverse problem solution.



A tsunami, which means “a wave in a harbor” in Japanese, is a grandiose sight with disastrous effects. It can be caused by the underwater earthquake and a volcano’s work, or even by falling of a large landslip or a huge piece of ice. The majority of tsunamis originate from the Pacific Ocean. This ocean is not “pacific” at all, as more than three fourths of all active volcanoes of the Earth are hidden on its bottom. Unfortunately, tsunami forecasting remains a complicated task, waters continue to take away hundreds of thousands of lives. Firstly, not every earthquake results in a tsunami, secondly, dangerous waves are not seen from ships or satellites in the majority of cases. Sometimes, the waves running at an aircraft’s speed are small at the depth but they turn into billows near the coast.

Researchers are trying to determine how and where the tsunami will spread and how dangerous it can be to coastal zone inhabitants. To this end, firstly, tsunami recorders and tsunamometers should be installed in the ocean. By the way, such devices have been installed by the US environment protection laboratory - P?EL NOAA - in seven points of the Pacific Ocean. They allow to transmit up to 98 percent of data and to measure tsunamis with the amplitude of less than one centimeter. Once the first tsunami data becomes available, it should be processed quickly and accurately with the help of mathematical models, the forecast should be made and people should be warned about possible danger.


A group of Siberian researchers (the Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk State University, Krasnoyarsk, etc.) has developed such software module. Special algorithm determines the tsunami source by processing records from deep-water oceanic receivers. The researchers built the software into the tsunami forecast system and tested it – the method worked perfectly well. The first calculations are performed right after the first wave reaches the closest tsunami analysis station. This provides the first order forecast. When the wave reaches the next station, the computations are repeated for both stations thus obtaining the second order forecast and so on.

However, the researchers say that the preliminary calculation system still needs significant improvement. They developed three new independent circulation methods for tsunami forecasting. “The methods applied to tsunami data circulation can also be used for investigation of the problem of optimal recording station placement in the ocean. Additional stations should be installed in locations that provide the most effective forecast”, says Mikhail Lavrenev, Russian project manager.

To raise the tsunami forecasting quality, the researchers suggest that the models should include special algorithm for determining initial shift in tsunami source based on two-dimensional inverse problem solution. This algorithm allows to restore the tsunami source by records of its waves at recently created stations. The researches claim that the development of neuronet software module will help to define more precisely the initial shift in the source.

Russian scientists’ large-scale project intended to improve the tsunami forecasting quality will also assist in finding appropriate locations for placement of new deep-water oceanic stations. The researchers are planning to test new investigations at the Pacific and Alaska tsunami notification centers.

Sergey Komarov | alfa
Further information:
http://www.informnauka.ru

More articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation:

nachricht Preservation of floodplains is flood protection
27.09.2017 | Technische Universität München

nachricht Conservationists are sounding the alarm: parrots much more threatened than assumed
15.09.2017 | Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen

All articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Salmonella as a tumour medication

HZI researchers developed a bacterial strain that can be used in cancer therapy

Salmonellae are dangerous pathogens that enter the body via contaminated food and can cause severe infections. But these bacteria are also known to target...

Im Focus: Neutron star merger directly observed for the first time

University of Maryland researchers contribute to historic detection of gravitational waves and light created by event

On August 17, 2017, at 12:41:04 UTC, scientists made the first direct observation of a merger between two neutron stars--the dense, collapsed cores that remain...

Im Focus: Breaking: the first light from two neutron stars merging

Seven new papers describe the first-ever detection of light from a gravitational wave source. The event, caused by two neutron stars colliding and merging together, was dubbed GW170817 because it sent ripples through space-time that reached Earth on 2017 August 17. Around the world, hundreds of excited astronomers mobilized quickly and were able to observe the event using numerous telescopes, providing a wealth of new data.

Previous detections of gravitational waves have all involved the merger of two black holes, a feat that won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics earlier this month....

Im Focus: Smart sensors for efficient processes

Material defects in end products can quickly result in failures in many areas of industry, and have a massive impact on the safe use of their products. This is why, in the field of quality assurance, intelligent, nondestructive sensor systems play a key role. They allow testing components and parts in a rapid and cost-efficient manner without destroying the actual product or changing its surface. Experts from the Fraunhofer IZFP in Saarbrücken will be presenting two exhibits at the Blechexpo in Stuttgart from 7–10 November 2017 that allow fast, reliable, and automated characterization of materials and detection of defects (Hall 5, Booth 5306).

When quality testing uses time-consuming destructive test methods, it can result in enormous costs due to damaging or destroying the products. And given that...

Im Focus: Cold molecules on collision course

Using a new cooling technique MPQ scientists succeed at observing collisions in a dense beam of cold and slow dipolar molecules.

How do chemical reactions proceed at extremely low temperatures? The answer requires the investigation of molecular samples that are cold, dense, and slow at...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

3rd Symposium on Driving Simulation

23.10.2017 | Event News

ASEAN Member States discuss the future role of renewable energy

17.10.2017 | Event News

World Health Summit 2017: International experts set the course for the future of Global Health

10.10.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Microfluidics probe 'cholesterol' of the oil industry

23.10.2017 | Life Sciences

Gamma rays will reach beyond the limits of light

23.10.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

The end of pneumonia? New vaccine offers hope

23.10.2017 | Health and Medicine

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>