Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Gray And Colorado State Team Slightly Reduce Hurricane Forecast

09.08.2004


Just days after Alex, the season’s first Atlantic-basin hurricane, brushed the U.S. coastline, William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team issued a report this morning slightly reducing the team’s seasonal forecast. However, the researchers still call for above-average hurricane activity this year and expect slightly above-average tropical cyclone activity in August and September.



As detailed in today’s updated Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast (August 6), Gray and Klotzbach call for a total of 13 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin this year. Of these, seven are predicted to become hurricanes and three are anticipated to evolve into intense hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. This is down slightly from the team’s late May forecast of 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. The long-term average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

“Based on atmospheric changes from late May to early August, including an unexpected minor warming of sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific indicating possible weak El-Nino conditions, we have slightly decreased our seasonal hurricane forecast,” said Gray. “We expect storm activity in August and September to be above average, however, October is expected to be below average. Overall, we think the 2004 Atlantic basin tropical storm season will be somewhat active and about 125 percent of the long-term average.”


The forecasts numbers released in today’s report mirror the team’s December extended-range forecast.

For the third year, Gray and his team are also issuing tropical cyclone activity forecasts for the specific months of August, September and October. The monthly forecasts use different parameters than the seasonal forecasts to predict storm activity within shorter time periods and aid with the seasonal predictions.

For the month of August, Gray and his team forecast four named storms, three hurricanes and one intense hurricane for the Atlantic basin. For September, the team predicts five named storms, three hurricanes and one intense hurricane. For October, they predict a below-average month.

“The same factors that make individual months active or inactive are often not the same factors that can make the entire season active or inactive,” said Philip Klotzbach, an atmospheric science researcher and lead member of Gray’s forecast team. “We are continually improving our forecasts to provide people with specific monthly hurricane forecasts and specific landfall probability forecasts.”

Along with today’s updated probabilities, Gray and his team have updated the Landfall Probability Web site which provides probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and intense hurricane-force winds making landfall in specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods.

Probabilities are available for 11 regions, 55 sub-regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. The Web site, available to the public at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane, is the first accessible Internet tool that adjusts landfall probabilities for regions, sub-regions and counties based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts, launched the site in June.

As part of today’s updated report, the Colorado State forecast team continues to warn of the considerably higher than average probability of at least one intense (or major) hurricane making landfall in the United States this year. According to today’s forecast, there is a 68 percent chance of an intense hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2004 (long-term average is 52 percent). For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability of an intense hurricane making landfall is 48 percent (long-term average is 31 percent). For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability is 38 percent (the long-term average is 30 percent).

These probabilities are slightly reduced from the team’s late May predictions of 71 percent, 52 percent and 40 percent respectively.

“Even with the slight forecast reduction, we still estimate the probability of a U.S. major hurricane making landfall is higher than normal at about 130 percent of the long term average,” said Gray.

Gray believes the United States has been fortunate over the past few decades in experiencing only a few major hurricanes making landfall in Florida and along the East Coast. The last nine years have witnessed 122 named storms, 69 hurricanes and 32 major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. During that period, only three of the 32 major hurricanes – Opal, Bret and Fran – crossed the U.S. coastline. Based on historical averages, about one in three major hurricanes comes ashore in the United States.

“Climatology will eventually right itself. We cannot say exactly when or where it will happen, but it will happen and we must expect a great increase in landfalling major hurricanes such as this nation witnessed in previous decades,” Gray said. “Unfortunately, with the large coastal population growth in recent decades, we need to anticipate hurricane-spawned destruction in coming years on a scale many times greater than what we have seen in the past.”

Gray and his team continuously work to improve their forecast methodologies based on a variety of climate-related global and regional predictors.

“We are continually making progress in improving statistical hurricane forecasting techniques and in better understanding why there is such variability in month-to-month and year-to-year Atlantic basin hurricane activity,” said Klotzbach. “Our ongoing forecast research is allowing us to continually improve hurricane prediction skill.”

Gray and his forecast team will issue seasonal updates of the 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane activity on Sept. 3 and Oct. 1. In addition to Gray and Klotzbach, other team members include William Thorson, Amie Hedstrom and others.

| newswise
Further information:
http://www.colostate.edu
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu

More articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation:

nachricht Upcycling 'fast fashion' to reduce waste and pollution
03.04.2017 | American Chemical Society

nachricht Litter is present throughout the world’s oceans: 1,220 species affected
27.03.2017 | Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung

All articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Making lightweight construction suitable for series production

More and more automobile companies are focusing on body parts made of carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP). However, manufacturing and repair costs must be further reduced in order to make CFRP more economical in use. Together with the Volkswagen AG and five other partners in the project HolQueSt 3D, the Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) has developed laser processes for the automatic trimming, drilling and repair of three-dimensional components.

Automated manufacturing processes are the basis for ultimately establishing the series production of CFRP components. In the project HolQueSt 3D, the LZH has...

Im Focus: Wonder material? Novel nanotube structure strengthens thin films for flexible electronics

Reflecting the structure of composites found in nature and the ancient world, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have synthesized thin carbon nanotube (CNT) textiles that exhibit both high electrical conductivity and a level of toughness that is about fifty times higher than copper films, currently used in electronics.

"The structural robustness of thin metal films has significant importance for the reliable operation of smart skin and flexible electronics including...

Im Focus: Deep inside Galaxy M87

The nearby, giant radio galaxy M87 hosts a supermassive black hole (BH) and is well-known for its bright jet dominating the spectrum over ten orders of magnitude in frequency. Due to its proximity, jet prominence, and the large black hole mass, M87 is the best laboratory for investigating the formation, acceleration, and collimation of relativistic jets. A research team led by Silke Britzen from the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn, Germany, has found strong indication for turbulent processes connecting the accretion disk and the jet of that galaxy providing insights into the longstanding problem of the origin of astrophysical jets.

Supermassive black holes form some of the most enigmatic phenomena in astrophysics. Their enormous energy output is supposed to be generated by the...

Im Focus: A Quantum Low Pass for Photons

Physicists in Garching observe novel quantum effect that limits the number of emitted photons.

The probability to find a certain number of photons inside a laser pulse usually corresponds to a classical distribution of independent events, the so-called...

Im Focus: Microprocessors based on a layer of just three atoms

Microprocessors based on atomically thin materials hold the promise of the evolution of traditional processors as well as new applications in the field of flexible electronics. Now, a TU Wien research team led by Thomas Müller has made a breakthrough in this field as part of an ongoing research project.

Two-dimensional materials, or 2D materials for short, are extremely versatile, although – or often more precisely because – they are made up of just one or a...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Expert meeting “Health Business Connect” will connect international medical technology companies

20.04.2017 | Event News

Wenn der Computer das Gehirn austrickst

18.04.2017 | Event News

7th International Conference on Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaics in Freiburg on April 3-5, 2017

03.04.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Link Discovered between Immune System, Brain Structure and Memory

26.04.2017 | Life Sciences

New survey hints at exotic origin for the Cold Spot

26.04.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

NASA examines newly formed Tropical Depression 3W in 3-D

26.04.2017 | Earth Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>