Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Powerful mathematical model greatly improves predictions for species facing climate change

05.12.2011
UCLA life scientists and colleagues have produced the most comprehensive mathematical model ever devised to track the health of populations exposed to environmental change.

The research, federally funded by the National Science Foundation, is published Dec. 2 in the journal Science.

The team's groundbreaking integral projection model, or IPM, unites various sub-disciplines of population biology, including population ecology, quantitative genetics, population genetics, and life-span and offspring information, allowing researchers to link many different data sources simultaneously. Scientists can now change just a single variable, like temperature, and see how that affects many factors for a population.

"This is one of the most innovative and holistic models, because it unifies so many sub-fields of ecology and genetics into one predictive model," said study co-author Robert Wayne, a UCLA professor of ecology and evolutionary biology, who led the UCLA research team. "Traditionally, we have studied just a few ecological parameters at a time, like how much food there is or how the environment will change over time, and how that relates to population size. Here, we are analyzing everything at once."

Among the researchers' major findings with the IPM is that gradual, sustained change in an environment over time — a gradual increase in temperature, for example — has a greater impact on the species in an ecosystem than fluctuating changes.

"If we change the total environment, such as temperature, we change a whole suite of characteristics for a species, including viability, fertility, population size, body size and generation length," Wayne said.

The new model could therefore be of great use in predicting the complex ecological impacts that could result as Earth's temperature gradually rises as a result of high carbon dioxide emissions entering the atmosphere and oceans.

"Probably much of the tundra in the high Arctic will disappear with global warming," Wayne said. "Since this is a very general model, it can be applied to any population, from a polar bear to a wolf to a beetle, even plants. We want to use this model to make predictions about populations that are in dire situations, as their environments will be changing quickly."

Just as physicists are searching for a unified field theory to bring the physics of the very large in harmony with the physics of the very small, the IPM "is the version in ecology and population genetics of a similar unified theory," Wayne said.

The collaboration that led to the new model followed a fortuitous meeting between Wayne and collaborator Tim Coulson, a professor of population biology at Imperial College London. Following a talk by Coulson at UCLA , Wayne and his research team combined their decades of expertise on the wolf population in Yellowstone National Park with Coulson's expertise in applied mathematics — and the most comprehensive ecological model was born.

Wolves were first introduced into Yellowstone in 1995 to control the overpopulation of elk and bison and to restore deteriorated forests. These wolves were closely monitored with radio collars in the years that followed, generating a vast array of detailed data. The effects they generated in the park — known as a trophic cascade — allowed many species, such as songbirds, beavers and grizzly bears, to thrive again as the elk and bison populations diminished.

"A critical issue for us is how these wolves will survive into the future," Wayne said. "This model addresses that issue in a comprehensive way by taking in so many components of population health."

The model also explains the persistence of the grey coat color in Yellowstone wolves, despite the fact that the gene for black coat color is dominant. Using genetic data collected in Wayne's laboratory, the IMP revealed that wolves who possessed two different versions of the coat-color gene, known as heterozygotes, lived longer and had more offspring than wolves who had two identical genes for coat color.

This example demonstrates the power of the new model, as it can make sense of seemingly unrelated information on population genetics and life history and generate a clearer understanding of an observed coat-color phenotype, and beyond that, the implications for survival of these animals in a complex ecosystem.

By using a model that could generate more accurate predictions, "We could potentially build scenarios predicting whether a species has no chance of recovery, and this could lead protection efforts," Wayne said.

"We are not very effective at stopping global warming, but perhaps we could identify ways to alter or enrich habitats to mitigate environmental effects," he added.

Coulson, the study's lead author, and postdoctoral scholar Daniel MacNulty worked extensively on the modeling system using data on Yellowstone wolves organized by Wayne and co-authors Daniel Stahler, a UCLA graduate student, and Bridgett vonHoldt, a UC Irvine postdoctoral scholar who conducted her graduate research in Wayne's laboratory. Important contributions also came from the National Park Service's Douglas Smith, project leader for the Yellowstone National Park Gray Wolf Restoration Project, in conjunction with Stahler.

UCLA is California's largest university, with an enrollment of nearly 38,000 undergraduate and graduate students. The UCLA College of Letters and Science and the university's 11 professional schools feature renowned faculty and offer 337 degree programs and majors. UCLA is a national and international leader in the breadth and quality of its academic, research, health care, cultural, continuing education and athletic programs. Six alumni and five faculty have been awarded the Nobel Prize.

For more news, visit the UCLA Newsroom and follow us on Twitter.

Stuart Wolpert | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.ucla.edu

More articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation:

nachricht Litter is present throughout the world’s oceans: 1,220 species affected
27.03.2017 | Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung

nachricht International network connects experimental research in European waters
21.03.2017 | Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB)

All articles from Ecology, The Environment and Conservation >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Giant Magnetic Fields in the Universe

Astronomers from Bonn and Tautenburg in Thuringia (Germany) used the 100-m radio telescope at Effelsberg to observe several galaxy clusters. At the edges of these large accumulations of dark matter, stellar systems (galaxies), hot gas, and charged particles, they found magnetic fields that are exceptionally ordered over distances of many million light years. This makes them the most extended magnetic fields in the universe known so far.

The results will be published on March 22 in the journal „Astronomy & Astrophysics“.

Galaxy clusters are the largest gravitationally bound structures in the universe. With a typical extent of about 10 million light years, i.e. 100 times the...

Im Focus: Tracing down linear ubiquitination

Researchers at the Goethe University Frankfurt, together with partners from the University of Tübingen in Germany and Queen Mary University as well as Francis Crick Institute from London (UK) have developed a novel technology to decipher the secret ubiquitin code.

Ubiquitin is a small protein that can be linked to other cellular proteins, thereby controlling and modulating their functions. The attachment occurs in many...

Im Focus: Perovskite edges can be tuned for optoelectronic performance

Layered 2D material improves efficiency for solar cells and LEDs

In the eternal search for next generation high-efficiency solar cells and LEDs, scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory and their partners are creating...

Im Focus: Polymer-coated silicon nanosheets as alternative to graphene: A perfect team for nanoelectronics

Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are less stable. Now researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have, for the first time ever, produced a composite material combining silicon nanosheets and a polymer that is both UV-resistant and easy to process. This brings the scientists a significant step closer to industrial applications like flexible displays and photosensors.

Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are...

Im Focus: Researchers Imitate Molecular Crowding in Cells

Enzymes behave differently in a test tube compared with the molecular scrum of a living cell. Chemists from the University of Basel have now been able to simulate these confined natural conditions in artificial vesicles for the first time. As reported in the academic journal Small, the results are offering better insight into the development of nanoreactors and artificial organelles.

Enzymes behave differently in a test tube compared with the molecular scrum of a living cell. Chemists from the University of Basel have now been able to...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

International Land Use Symposium ILUS 2017: Call for Abstracts and Registration open

20.03.2017 | Event News

CONNECT 2017: International congress on connective tissue

14.03.2017 | Event News

ICTM Conference: Turbine Construction between Big Data and Additive Manufacturing

07.03.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Northern oceans pumped CO2 into the atmosphere

27.03.2017 | Earth Sciences

Fingerprint' technique spots frog populations at risk from pollution

27.03.2017 | Life Sciences

Big data approach to predict protein structure

27.03.2017 | Life Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>