Upscaling greenhouse-gas emissions reduction from the current 20 percent by 2020 to 40 percent by 2030 would be likely to cost less than an additional 0.7 percent of economic activity.
This is a key finding from an international multi-model analysis by the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF28) and comes at a crucial time, as the European Commission is set to announce next week its plans whether to scale up its efforts on emissions reduction in the next decade.
However, beyond 2040, according to the scientists the costs risk to rise substantially. Technological innovation would be needed to counter this.
“In the next two decades, it is possible to achieve the transformation using existing technologies,” says Brigitte Knopf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the study conducted by a dozen research groups. Thereafter, however, energy-economy system models project different costs. Some simulations show a steep increase after 2040, while others show only a linear increase. One determining factor is the degree to which new technologies can replace old ones. This indicates that technological progress is needed to keep costs in check.
“A clear price signal has to be set today, for instance in the European Emissions Trading System,” says Knopf. “It would provide an incentive for innovation that would prevent energy systems from being locked into long-lasting investments in CO2-intensive technologies, such as coal-fired power plants.”
Current CO2 reductions fall short of achieving long-term climate targets
“The current 20 percent emission reductions by 2020 could fall short of achieving the long-term climate targets set by the EU,” explains Enrica De Cian of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy. “Short-term emissions reductions of at least 40 percent by 2030 are necessary to eventually meet the long-term target of an 80 percent reduction by 2050 aspired by the EU.” The reference year is 1990. The models in the study would actually suggest an even more ambitious short-term target than those 40 percent that are currently under debate.
The analysis confirms the core findings of the much debated EU Energy Roadmap, which details the EU climate and energy strategy. “By setting targets for 2030, the EU would signal its willingness to contribute to the global climate mitigation effort”, De Cian points out. “And a positive reaction of other countries to this signal could foster technological change and innovation within Europe as well.”
Many options to choose from - wind power could expand sevenfold
Options explored by the study to reach the EU climate target range from renewable energies to nuclear energy and energy-efficiency increases. “There’s a wide choice for decision-makers, depending on their preferences, so that’s a good thing,” says Detlef van Vuuren of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University. “Still, most model calculations optimizing the change of the electricity system project energy from biomass to expand threefold, and from wind even sevenfold by 2050.” This would have to be reflected in a potential future EU target on renewable energy.
One remarkable finding is that Europe could do without relying on the much debated and as yet unproven technology of sequestering CO2 from power plant emissions and injecting it into the ground. This is a new result compared to the Roadmap study. Nonetheless, ‘Carbon Capture and Storage’ (CCS) would be needed to achieve an affordable worldwide transformation.
Robust multi-model assessment of EU Roadmap
The new study is the most systematic comparison of computer simulations of the European energy-economy system to date. It includes the PRIMES model, which had attracted criticism in the past for being the only one used by the European Commission for previous assessments of the energy system. “The more comprehensive approach now allows for a more robust assessment of technologies, costs and infrastructure requirements,” John Weyant says, who leads the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum EMF. This is detailed in the Special Issue of Climate Change Economics. “It shows some very promising opportunities to avoid the risks of unabated climate change.”
Article: Knopf, B., Chen, Y-H. H., De Cian, E., Förster, H., Kanudia, A., Karkatsouli, I., Keppo, I., Koljonen, T., Schuhmacher, K., Van Vuuren, D.P. (2013): Beyond 2020 – Strategies and costs for transforming the European energy system. In a Special Issue of Climate Change Economics Vol.04 [doi: 10.1142/S2010007813400010]
Weblink to the article: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S2010007813400010
Weblink to the Special Issue: http://www.worldscientific.com/toc/cce/04/supp01
Weblink to more information on EMF: http://emf.stanford.edu/docs/about_emf/For further information please contact:
Jonas Viering | PIK Pressestelle
Sea turtles face plastic pollution peril
09.10.2015 | University of Exeter
NOAA declares third ever global coral bleaching event
08.10.2015 | NOAA Headquarters
Physicists of TU Berlin and mathematicians of MATHEON are so successful that even the prestigious journal “Nature Communications” reported on their project.
Security in data transfer is an important issue, and not only since the NSA scandal. Sometimes, however, the need for speed conflicts to a certain degree with...
Having a light touch can make a hefty difference in how well animals and robots move across challenging granular surfaces such as snow, sand and leaf litter. Research reported October 9 in the journal Bioinspiration & Biomimetics shows how the design of appendages – whether legs or wheels – affects the ability of both robots and animals to cross weak and flowing surfaces.
Using an air fluidized bed trackway filled with poppy seeds or glass spheres, researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology systematically varied the...
Nondestructive material testing (NDT) is a fast and effective way to analyze the quality of a product during the manufacturing process. Because defective materials can lead to malfunctioning finished products, NDT is an essential quality assurance measure, especially in the manufacture of safety-critical components such as automotive B-pillars. NDT examines the quality without damaging the component or modifying the surface of the material. At this year's Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart, Fraunhofer IZFP will have an exhibit that demonstrates the nondestructive testing of high-strength automotive body parts using 3MA. The measurement results are available in a matter of seconds.
To minimize vehicle weight and fuel consumption while providing the highest level of crash safety, automotive bodies are reinforced with elements made from...
The MICADO camera, a first light instrument for the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), has entered a new phase in the project: by agreeing to a Memorandum of Understanding, the partners in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, and Italy, have all confirmed their participation. Following this milestone, the project's transition into its preliminary design phase was approved at a kick-off meeting held in Vienna. Two weeks earlier, on September 18, the consortium and the European Southern Observatory (ESO), which is building the telescope, have signed the corresponding collaboration agreement.
As the first dedicated camera for the E-ELT, MICADO will equip the giant telescope with a capability for diffraction-limited imaging at near-infrared...
Self-driving cars will be on our streets in the foreseeable future. In Graz, research is currently dedicated to an innovative driver assistance system that takes over control if there is a danger of collision. It was nature that inspired Dr Manfred Hartbauer from the Institute of Zoology at the University of Graz: in dangerous traffic situations, migratory locusts react around ten times faster than humans. Working together with an interdisciplinary team, Hartbauer is investigating an affordable collision detector that is equipped with artificial locust eyes and can recognise potential crashes in time, during both day and night.
Inspired by insects
01.10.2015 | Event News
30.09.2015 | Event News
17.09.2015 | Event News
13.10.2015 | Trade Fair News
13.10.2015 | Physics and Astronomy
13.10.2015 | Health and Medicine