Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Scotland's economy challenged by population trends

10.12.2007
Scotland’s population is changing in ways that could transform the face of the country.

While the latest figures show a recent upswing in births and migration to Scotland and a projected rise in the population over the next 25 years, in the long term Scotland’s population (in common with many other developed nations) is predicted to decline and age markedly.

This trend and its key implications are outlined in a new publication, ‘Scotland’s demographic trends: insights from Scotland’s Demography Research Programme Findings’. This booklet highlights research findings from a two-year research initiative, funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Scottish Government.

In the absence of significant in-migration, Scotland’s population is set to decline in the long term and these projections have important implications for the economy, public services, the labour market and the quality of everyday life.

In 2005, the ESRC and Scottish Government launched the £300,000 ‘Scotland’s Demography Research Programme’ to investigate three key aspects of Scotland’s demography: migration, fertility and the impact of an ageing population. Alongside the new publication, ‘Scotland’s demographic trends: insights from Scotland’s Demography Research Programme’, a one-day seminar to disseminate key developments from the initiative will be held in the Point Hotel in Edinburgh on 7 December 2007.

Some of the key findings include:

Modelling techniques using Government Actuary Department 2004 based projections point to the adverse economic impact of a shrinking and ageing population – including slower growth in GDP and rising export price index. If fertility and mortality follow the pattern suggested in this projection, annual net in-migration of 20,000 is needed to prevent the Scottish economy shrinking.

Contrary to previous thought, in the last few years Scotland has recorded clear net in-migration gains (i.e. more people migrating to Scotland than migrating from Scotland). Maintaining or improving this current balance of migration could prove key to addressing the challenges posed by Scotland’s ageing population and projected population decline. New survey evidence suggests that significant scope exists to improve graduate retention in Scotland and to encourage Scots and non-Scots to work in Scotland.

Fertility is Scotland is lower than elsewhere in the UK. Research shows women in Scotland leave longer gaps between first and second/subsequent children and have smaller families. But Scottish women don’t set out to have smaller families than the rest of the UK. So differences in fertility appear to be responses to immediate circumstances (economic, for example) rather than longer-term intentions.

More than 20 researchers based in five academic institutions across Scotland took part in the ESRC/ Scottish Government-funded ‘Scotland’s Demography Research Programme’.

Alexandra Saxon | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.esrc.ac.uk
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/

More articles from Business and Finance:

nachricht Mathematical confirmation: Rewiring financial networks reduces systemic risk
22.06.2017 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

nachricht Frugal Innovations: when less is more
19.04.2017 | Fraunhofer-Institut für Arbeitswirtschaft und Organisation IAO

All articles from Business and Finance >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Can we see monkeys from space? Emerging technologies to map biodiversity

An international team of scientists has proposed a new multi-disciplinary approach in which an array of new technologies will allow us to map biodiversity and the risks that wildlife is facing at the scale of whole landscapes. The findings are published in Nature Ecology and Evolution. This international research is led by the Kunming Institute of Zoology from China, University of East Anglia, University of Leicester and the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research.

Using a combination of satellite and ground data, the team proposes that it is now possible to map biodiversity with an accuracy that has not been previously...

Im Focus: Climate satellite: Tracking methane with robust laser technology

Heatwaves in the Arctic, longer periods of vegetation in Europe, severe floods in West Africa – starting in 2021, scientists want to explore the emissions of the greenhouse gas methane with the German-French satellite MERLIN. This is made possible by a new robust laser system of the Fraunhofer Institute for Laser Technology ILT in Aachen, which achieves unprecedented measurement accuracy.

Methane is primarily the result of the decomposition of organic matter. The gas has a 25 times greater warming potential than carbon dioxide, but is not as...

Im Focus: How protons move through a fuel cell

Hydrogen is regarded as the energy source of the future: It is produced with solar power and can be used to generate heat and electricity in fuel cells. Empa researchers have now succeeded in decoding the movement of hydrogen ions in crystals – a key step towards more efficient energy conversion in the hydrogen industry of tomorrow.

As charge carriers, electrons and ions play the leading role in electrochemical energy storage devices and converters such as batteries and fuel cells. Proton...

Im Focus: A unique data centre for cosmological simulations

Scientists from the Excellence Cluster Universe at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich have establised "Cosmowebportal", a unique data centre for cosmological simulations located at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) of the Bavarian Academy of Sciences. The complete results of a series of large hydrodynamical cosmological simulations are available, with data volumes typically exceeding several hundred terabytes. Scientists worldwide can interactively explore these complex simulations via a web interface and directly access the results.

With current telescopes, scientists can observe our Universe’s galaxies and galaxy clusters and their distribution along an invisible cosmic web. From the...

Im Focus: Scientists develop molecular thermometer for contactless measurement using infrared light

Temperature measurements possible even on the smallest scale / Molecular ruby for use in material sciences, biology, and medicine

Chemists at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) in cooperation with researchers of the German Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing (BAM)...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

Event News

Plants are networkers

19.06.2017 | Event News

Digital Survival Training for Executives

13.06.2017 | Event News

Global Learning Council Summit 2017

13.06.2017 | Event News

 
Latest News

Ultra-compact phase modulators based on graphene plasmons

27.06.2017 | Physics and Astronomy

For a chimpanzee, one good turn deserves another

27.06.2017 | Life Sciences

Collapse of the European ice sheet caused chaos

27.06.2017 | Earth Sciences

VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
More VideoLinks >>>