How do shortfalls in crude oil production caused by wars and other political events in the Middle East affect oil prices, economic growth and inflation in major industrialized countries? Lutz Kilian investigates this question in CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5404 ‘The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence From the G7 Countries’. He notes that public discussion of this question has been shaped by the economic experience of the 1970s and early 1980s. The public’s collective memory of these experiences leaves little doubt that oil supply shocks are to blame for the economic malaise of the 1970s. This has led to the concern that history might repeat itself if a new oil supply shock were to occur.
It is not clear whether that public perception is correct, however. Lutz Kilian argues that, by any measure, a substantial component of the observed movements in the price of crude oil reflect shifts in demand for oil driven by macroeconomic conditions. Thus one cannot simply assume that major oil price increases are necessarily driven by events such as wars and political conflicts in the Middle East. Kilian proposes an alternative direct measure of exogenous oil production shortfalls based on plausible assumptions about how OPEC oil production would have evolved without political turmoil in the Middle East. Exogenous here means that the shock to crude oil production is driven by political forces in oil-producing countries that evolve indpendently of the state of the global economy.
Using this measure he has a fresh look at the historical experience of the G7 countries during previous oil supply shocks. His analysis produces the following findings:
Robbie Lonie | alfa
Mathematical confirmation: Rewiring financial networks reduces systemic risk
22.06.2017 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Frugal Innovations: when less is more
19.04.2017 | Fraunhofer-Institut für Arbeitswirtschaft und Organisation IAO
University of Maryland researchers contribute to historic detection of gravitational waves and light created by event
On August 17, 2017, at 12:41:04 UTC, scientists made the first direct observation of a merger between two neutron stars--the dense, collapsed cores that remain...
Seven new papers describe the first-ever detection of light from a gravitational wave source. The event, caused by two neutron stars colliding and merging together, was dubbed GW170817 because it sent ripples through space-time that reached Earth on 2017 August 17. Around the world, hundreds of excited astronomers mobilized quickly and were able to observe the event using numerous telescopes, providing a wealth of new data.
Previous detections of gravitational waves have all involved the merger of two black holes, a feat that won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics earlier this month....
Material defects in end products can quickly result in failures in many areas of industry, and have a massive impact on the safe use of their products. This is why, in the field of quality assurance, intelligent, nondestructive sensor systems play a key role. They allow testing components and parts in a rapid and cost-efficient manner without destroying the actual product or changing its surface. Experts from the Fraunhofer IZFP in Saarbrücken will be presenting two exhibits at the Blechexpo in Stuttgart from 7–10 November 2017 that allow fast, reliable, and automated characterization of materials and detection of defects (Hall 5, Booth 5306).
When quality testing uses time-consuming destructive test methods, it can result in enormous costs due to damaging or destroying the products. And given that...
Using a new cooling technique MPQ scientists succeed at observing collisions in a dense beam of cold and slow dipolar molecules.
How do chemical reactions proceed at extremely low temperatures? The answer requires the investigation of molecular samples that are cold, dense, and slow at...
Scientists from the Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics, using high precision laser spectroscopy of atomic hydrogen, confirm the surprisingly small value of the proton radius determined from muonic hydrogen.
It was one of the breakthroughs of the year 2010: Laser spectroscopy of muonic hydrogen resulted in a value for the proton charge radius that was significantly...
17.10.2017 | Event News
10.10.2017 | Event News
10.10.2017 | Event News
20.10.2017 | Information Technology
20.10.2017 | Materials Sciences
20.10.2017 | Interdisciplinary Research