How do shortfalls in crude oil production caused by wars and other political events in the Middle East affect oil prices, economic growth and inflation in major industrialized countries? Lutz Kilian investigates this question in CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5404 ‘The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence From the G7 Countries’. He notes that public discussion of this question has been shaped by the economic experience of the 1970s and early 1980s. The public’s collective memory of these experiences leaves little doubt that oil supply shocks are to blame for the economic malaise of the 1970s. This has led to the concern that history might repeat itself if a new oil supply shock were to occur.
It is not clear whether that public perception is correct, however. Lutz Kilian argues that, by any measure, a substantial component of the observed movements in the price of crude oil reflect shifts in demand for oil driven by macroeconomic conditions. Thus one cannot simply assume that major oil price increases are necessarily driven by events such as wars and political conflicts in the Middle East. Kilian proposes an alternative direct measure of exogenous oil production shortfalls based on plausible assumptions about how OPEC oil production would have evolved without political turmoil in the Middle East. Exogenous here means that the shock to crude oil production is driven by political forces in oil-producing countries that evolve indpendently of the state of the global economy.
Using this measure he has a fresh look at the historical experience of the G7 countries during previous oil supply shocks. His analysis produces the following findings:
Robbie Lonie | alfa
RWI/ISL-Container Throughput Index with minor decline on a high overall level
20.03.2018 | RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
The RWI/ISL-Container Throughput Index started off well in 2018
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An international team of researchers has discovered a new anti-cancer protein. The protein, called LHPP, prevents the uncontrolled proliferation of cancer cells in the liver. The researchers led by Prof. Michael N. Hall from the Biozentrum, University of Basel, report in “Nature” that LHPP can also serve as a biomarker for the diagnosis and prognosis of liver cancer.
The incidence of liver cancer, also known as hepatocellular carcinoma, is steadily increasing. In the last twenty years, the number of cases has almost doubled...
In just a few weeks from now, the Chinese space station Tiangong-1 will re-enter the Earth's atmosphere where it will to a large extent burn up. It is possible that some debris will reach the Earth's surface. Tiangong-1 is orbiting the Earth uncontrolled at a speed of approx. 29,000 km/h.Currently the prognosis relating to the time of impact currently lies within a window of several days. The scientists at Fraunhofer FHR have already been monitoring Tiangong-1 for a number of weeks with their TIRA system, one of the most powerful space observation radars in the world, with a view to supporting the German Space Situational Awareness Center and the ESA with their re-entry forecasts.
Following the loss of radio contact with Tiangong-1 in 2016 and due to the low orbital height, it is now inevitable that the Chinese space station will...
Fraunhofer Institute for Organic Electronics, Electron Beam and Plasma Technology FEP, provider of research and development services for OLED lighting solutions, announces the founding of the “OLED Licht Forum” and presents latest OLED design and lighting solutions during light+building, from March 18th – 23rd, 2018 in Frankfurt a.M./Germany, at booth no. F91 in Hall 4.0.
They are united in their passion for OLED (organic light emitting diodes) lighting with all of its unique facets and application possibilities. Thus experts in...
A new scenario seeking to explain how Mars' putative oceans came and went over the last 4 billion years implies that the oceans formed several hundred million...
For the first time, an interdisciplinary team from the University of Basel has succeeded in integrating artificial organelles into the cells of live zebrafish embryos. This innovative approach using artificial organelles as cellular implants offers new potential in treating a range of diseases, as the authors report in an article published in Nature Communications.
In the cells of higher organisms, organelles such as the nucleus or mitochondria perform a range of complex functions necessary for life. In the networks of...
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