Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

America will gain 4 million jobs by the end of next year

15.03.2005


The U.S. economy, which finally posted job gains last year after three straight years of job losses, will add another 4 million jobs through 2006, say University of Michigan economists.



"The economy lost 2.7 million payroll jobs from February 2001 to May 2003, but by 2004 the ability of employers to tease more and more output out of fewer workers had about had it," said Saul Hymans, U-M professor emeritus of economics. "That plus renewed business confidence in the strength of the expansion did the trick and produced a sharp jump in jobs.

"With solid but no longer extraordinary productivity gains, hiring responds to sustained output growth during 2005 and 2006, producing healthy job gains and a gradual improvement in the unemployment rate. However, job gains in 2005 and 2006 fall well short of the 3 million jobs added per year in the 1994-2000 period."


In their annual spring forecast update of the U.S. economy, Hymans and colleagues Joan Crary and Janet Wolfe predict employment growth of 2.1 million (nonfarm payroll) jobs this year and 1.9 million jobs in 2006. Unemployment is expected to fall from last year’s 5.5 percent average to 5.3 percent this year and 5.1 percent next year.

The economists say output growth (as measured by real Gross Domestic Product) will back off from the robust 3.9 percent of 2004 to 3.3 percent during 2005 and 3.5 percent during 2006.

"Healthy gains in consumer demand and some rebuilding of inventory stocks pace the growth of real GDP in the first half of this year, but a moderate second-half slowdown results from an easing of residential building and inventory accumulation and net exports take a bigger bite out of the growth rate," Hymans said. "Growth heads back up again in 2006, reflecting somewhat stronger consumption growth and a strong, steady contribution from business capital investment, including commercial and industrial construction."

As job growth rises in the next two years, so will inflation and interest rates, although they will remain at fairly low levels, Hymans and colleagues say

The conventional 30-year mortgage rate will average 6.1 percent this year and 6.9 percent next year, after hovering around 5.8 percent the past two years. The rate for three-month Treasury bills will more than double from 1.4 percent last year to 3 percent in 2005 and 3.8 percent in 2006. The 10-year Treasury bond rate edges upward from last year’s 4.3 percent to 4.6 percent this year and 5.4 percent next year.

Core inflation, which was an exceptionally low 1.8 percent in 2004, will rise to 2.2 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2006.

The U-M forecast, which is based on the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy and compiled by the U-M Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, also predicts that:

Oil prices will gradually retreat later this year from the $50-$55 per barrel range expected through mid-year to $47 per barrel by the fourth quarter 2005 and to $38 per barrel by the end of next year.

Private housing starts will stay strong at 1.96 million units in 2005 and 1.88 million in 2006, following last year’s 1.95 million — the highest annual total since 1978.

Sales of light vehicles will remain steady at 16.7 million units in 2005 and increase to 17 million next year, which would make 2006 the third-best on record.

Bernie DeGroat | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.umich.edu

More articles from Business and Finance:

nachricht Microtechnology industry is hiring – positive developments of past years continue
09.04.2018 | IVAM Fachverband für Mikrotechnik

nachricht RWI/ISL-Container Throughput Index with minor decline on a high overall level
20.03.2018 | RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

All articles from Business and Finance >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Molecular switch will facilitate the development of pioneering electro-optical devices

A research team led by physicists at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) has developed molecular nanoswitches that can be toggled between two structurally different states using an applied voltage. They can serve as the basis for a pioneering class of devices that could replace silicon-based components with organic molecules.

The development of new electronic technologies drives the incessant reduction of functional component sizes. In the context of an international collaborative...

Im Focus: LZH showcases laser material processing of tomorrow at the LASYS 2018

At the LASYS 2018, from June 5th to 7th, the Laser Zentrum Hannover e.V. (LZH) will be showcasing processes for the laser material processing of tomorrow in hall 4 at stand 4E75. With blown bomb shells the LZH will present first results of a research project on civil security.

At this year's LASYS, the LZH will exhibit light-based processes such as cutting, welding, ablation and structuring as well as additive manufacturing for...

Im Focus: Self-illuminating pixels for a new display generation

There are videos on the internet that can make one marvel at technology. For example, a smartphone is casually bent around the arm or a thin-film display is rolled in all directions and with almost every diameter. From the user's point of view, this looks fantastic. From a professional point of view, however, the question arises: Is that already possible?

At Display Week 2018, scientists from the Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Polymer Research IAP will be demonstrating today’s technological possibilities and...

Im Focus: Explanation for puzzling quantum oscillations has been found

So-called quantum many-body scars allow quantum systems to stay out of equilibrium much longer, explaining experiment | Study published in Nature Physics

Recently, researchers from Harvard and MIT succeeded in trapping a record 53 atoms and individually controlling their quantum state, realizing what is called a...

Im Focus: Dozens of binaries from Milky Way's globular clusters could be detectable by LISA

Next-generation gravitational wave detector in space will complement LIGO on Earth

The historic first detection of gravitational waves from colliding black holes far outside our galaxy opened a new window to understanding the universe. A...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

Save the date: Forum European Neuroscience – 07-11 July 2018 in Berlin, Germany

02.05.2018 | Event News

Invitation to the upcoming "Current Topics in Bioinformatics: Big Data in Genomics and Medicine"

13.04.2018 | Event News

Unique scope of UV LED technologies and applications presented in Berlin: ICULTA-2018

12.04.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

When corals eat plastics

24.05.2018 | Ecology, The Environment and Conservation

Surgery involving ultrasound energy found to treat high blood pressure

24.05.2018 | Medical Engineering

First chip-scale broadband optical system that can sense molecules in the mid-IR

24.05.2018 | Physics and Astronomy

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>