In time, food prices will again decline. These are some of the recent and most important conclusions in an economic analysis of the development in world food prices from experts at Wageningen University and Research Centre in the Netherlands.
Wageningen UR asked a number of experts to contribute to the national and international discussion by offering analysis from different perspectives. A first memorandum on the analysis of the recent price increases has already been presented.Influence on price formation
The effects of speculative investments in food crops should not be overestimated. On the one hand, they can lead to a quick increase in prices. However, on the other hand, if a decrease in prices starts, the same investments will lead to a quick fall in prices.
A large number of factors influence the current price development:
- Poor harvests have caused low wheat and barley yields in Australia, the Ukraine and Europe. The stores of these grains are running out, and the current barley and wheat prices are high.
- High maize yields led to a world-wide increase of the total grain harvest in 2007. Because of this, maize prices remained relatively low. Only very recently have increases in maize prices been detected.
- High energy prices lead to high costs for artificial fertilizers and fuel, among other things. Higher transport costs lead to price effects for transport over long distances.
- Argentine, Kazakhstan, India, Vietnam and Egypt have levied export taxes to protect their own food supply. This has pushed up prices on the world market.- The production limitations for food products in the EU have pushed up prices.
- The demand in Europe and North America is stable, but the demand is growing in Asian countries as a result of income developments and changes in diet.
- The demand for agricultural products for the production of biofuels has a small effect:
-- Only 5 per cent of the oilseeds goes to biodiesel or directly to the transport sector;
-- 4.5 per cent of the grain production is used for ethanol.
Although this is a marginal demand, it still has an influence on the development of prices on the world market because the supply of food products on the world market is relatively small. At the same time, the increasing prices cause a decreasing demand from the biofuel sector because biofuel production is increasingly unprofitable.Price pressure
- The high prices will lead to the use of agricultural land that is currently not in production. Huge potential exists particularly in Brazil and Russia. In other countries, production will be intensified, and this will lead to a decrease in prices.
- Because of the high prices, investments in R & D and technology will again become profitable.
- To dampen price instability, strategic stocks are indispensable.
- The influence of the biofuel directives on the development of world food prices is relative and depends on the technological developments around the production of biobased commodities. The investments in second generation biobased production are important because the production of second generation biobased products does not use the direct food product but the whole plant.
The development of the oil price is significant in predicting the demand from the biofuel sector. In the current price relation between oil and biofuels, biofuels are not profitable. With this price relation, the volume of the biofuel market will be limited to the commitments in the biofuel directive. With a relatively high oil price, biofuels can become competitive: the food and fuel markets will then be further integrated and the food prices will be determined, to a greater extent, by the oil price.
Unpredictable movements in food prices can still provide problems in the future. With high prices, the consequences in terms of hunger or malnutrition especially in poor areas will surface, and with low prices, the consequence for poor farmers will be large. In poorer areas of the world, the expenditure for food makes up, on average, about 50 per cent of an individual's disposable income. As such, price increases in these regions have dramatic effects. This percentage climbs to 65 per cent if the food prices rise by 30 per cent. In the wealthy lands, these effects, on the other hand, will be limited to 1 to 2 per cent of an individual's income.
Apart from this, the researchers state in their report that the hunger issue is, however, only partially attributable to the demand for biofuels and is much more attributable to bad policy and the poor performance of the markets.
Jac Niessen | alfa
Blockchain Set to Transform the Financial Services Market
28.09.2016 | HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management
Paper or plastic?
08.07.2016 | University of Toronto
Researchers from the Institute for Quantum Computing (IQC) at the University of Waterloo led the development of a new extensible wiring technique capable of controlling superconducting quantum bits, representing a significant step towards to the realization of a scalable quantum computer.
"The quantum socket is a wiring method that uses three-dimensional wires based on spring-loaded pins to address individual qubits," said Jeremy Béjanin, a PhD...
In a paper in Scientific Reports, a research team at Worcester Polytechnic Institute describes a novel light-activated phenomenon that could become the basis for applications as diverse as microscopic robotic grippers and more efficient solar cells.
A research team at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) has developed a revolutionary, light-activated semiconductor nanocomposite material that can be used...
By forcefully embedding two silicon atoms in a diamond matrix, Sandia researchers have demonstrated for the first time on a single chip all the components needed to create a quantum bridge to link quantum computers together.
"People have already built small quantum computers," says Sandia researcher Ryan Camacho. "Maybe the first useful one won't be a single giant quantum computer...
COMPAMED has become the leading international marketplace for suppliers of medical manufacturing. The trade fair, which takes place every November and is co-located to MEDICA in Dusseldorf, has been steadily growing over the past years and shows that medical technology remains a rapidly growing market.
In 2016, the joint pavilion by the IVAM Microtechnology Network, the Product Market “High-tech for Medical Devices”, will be located in Hall 8a again and will...
'Ferroelectric' materials can switch between different states of electrical polarization in response to an external electric field. This flexibility means they show promise for many applications, for example in electronic devices and computer memory. Current ferroelectric materials are highly valued for their thermal and chemical stability and rapid electro-mechanical responses, but creating a material that is scalable down to the tiny sizes needed for technologies like silicon-based semiconductors (Si-based CMOS) has proven challenging.
Now, Hiroshi Funakubo and co-workers at the Tokyo Institute of Technology, in collaboration with researchers across Japan, have conducted experiments to...
14.10.2016 | Event News
14.10.2016 | Event News
12.10.2016 | Event News
21.10.2016 | Health and Medicine
21.10.2016 | Information Technology
21.10.2016 | Materials Sciences