Forum for Science, Industry and Business

Sponsored by:     3M 
Search our Site:

 

Better predictions of share yields

05.01.2009
It is not easy to predict stock market trends. Two financial researchers at BI Norwegian School of Management have identified a target indicator that can predict future return on shares.

It is by no means a simple matter to say anything with confidence about how the value of a share will develop over time. There is a varied menu of key figures and indicators that are used to consider various investment alternatives.

Not all such measures are equally accurate and it is far from certain that they have predictive value.

Some people, perhaps particularly corporate and financial journalists, have fun seeing whether the dartboard method gives better results than following the advice of the experts. And sometimes it does, too.

In search of better prognoses

Financial researchers all over the world have long been in search of indicators that can yield more reliable prophecies about future yields on the stock markets.

Associate Professor Ilan Cooper and Professor Richard Priestley of the Department of Financial Economics at BI Norwegian School of Management have now discovered a macroeconomic variable, the “output gap”, which can be used to predict stock market yields.

This indicator provides good predictions of future yield on shares within a time horizon right down to one month and up to five years. The longer the time horizon, the more reliable the prediction.

The output gap is a measure of the pressure in the economy and is calculated as a deviation from its long-term growth rate. The output gap fluctuates in step with the business cycle.

Top international publication

Cooper and Priestley have undertaken extensive tests of the output gap as an indicator of future yield on shares.

Among other things they have conducted statistical analyses of the yield in the stock markets of the G7 countries (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US and Canada) in the period from 1970 to 2005.

“The output gap can predict stock market returns in the G7 countries (for example the yield on the S&P 500 index in the USA) and expected additional yield in relation to risk-free interest rates”, conclude the financial researchers.

The macro indicator can also be used to predict future returns on US long-term bonds.

Cooper and Priestley present the results of their study in the article “Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap”, published in the international journal The Review of Financial Studies.

The journal is considered one of the three most reputable within the discipline of financial economics.

Higher expected return during recessions

When the economy is booming, the output gap will be positive, but negative in bad times.

In their study Cooper and Priestley found that expected returns are higher during recessions than during recovery.

“We show that investors are risk-averse during recessions. They want a higher risk premium to invest in shares rather than government bonds,” they say.

The study shows that the yield in the share market is closely related to the macroeconomic figure the output gap. Stock-market investors who calculate the output gap and use it to predict future earnings in the market will do better than those who do not use it, say the BI researchers. On the other hand, what they earn extra in bad times is a compensation for the higher risk.

Reference:

Cooper, Ilan and Priestley, Richard (2008): ”Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap” (Forthcoming, published online on October 2, 2008), The Review of Financial Studies.

Audun Farbrot | alfa
Further information:
http://www.bi.no

More articles from Business and Finance:

nachricht Microtechnology industry is hiring – positive developments of past years continue
09.04.2018 | IVAM Fachverband für Mikrotechnik

nachricht RWI/ISL-Container Throughput Index with minor decline on a high overall level
20.03.2018 | RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

All articles from Business and Finance >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Explanation for puzzling quantum oscillations has been found

So-called quantum many-body scars allow quantum systems to stay out of equilibrium much longer, explaining experiment | Study published in Nature Physics

Recently, researchers from Harvard and MIT succeeded in trapping a record 53 atoms and individually controlling their quantum state, realizing what is called a...

Im Focus: Dozens of binaries from Milky Way's globular clusters could be detectable by LISA

Next-generation gravitational wave detector in space will complement LIGO on Earth

The historic first detection of gravitational waves from colliding black holes far outside our galaxy opened a new window to understanding the universe. A...

Im Focus: Entangled atoms shine in unison

A team led by Austrian experimental physicist Rainer Blatt has succeeded in characterizing the quantum entanglement of two spatially separated atoms by observing their light emission. This fundamental demonstration could lead to the development of highly sensitive optical gradiometers for the precise measurement of the gravitational field or the earth's magnetic field.

The age of quantum technology has long been heralded. Decades of research into the quantum world have led to the development of methods that make it possible...

Im Focus: Computer-Designed Customized Regenerative Heart Valves

Cardiovascular tissue engineering aims to treat heart disease with prostheses that grow and regenerate. Now, researchers from the University of Zurich, the Technical University Eindhoven and the Charité Berlin have successfully implanted regenerative heart valves, designed with the aid of computer simulations, into sheep for the first time.

Producing living tissue or organs based on human cells is one of the main research fields in regenerative medicine. Tissue engineering, which involves growing...

Im Focus: Light-induced superconductivity under high pressure

A team of scientists of the Max Planck Institute for the Structure and Dynamics of Matter (MPSD) at the Center for Free-Electron Laser Science in Hamburg investigated optically-induced superconductivity in the alkali-doped fulleride K3C60under high external pressures. This study allowed, on one hand, to uniquely assess the nature of the transient state as a superconducting phase. In addition, it unveiled the possibility to induce superconductivity in K3C60 at temperatures far above the -170 degrees Celsius hypothesized previously, and rather all the way to room temperature. The paper by Cantaluppi et al has been published in Nature Physics.

Unlike ordinary metals, superconductors have the unique capability of transporting electrical currents without any loss. Nowadays, their technological...

All Focus news of the innovation-report >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industry & Economy
Event News

Save the date: Forum European Neuroscience – 07-11 July 2018 in Berlin, Germany

02.05.2018 | Event News

Invitation to the upcoming "Current Topics in Bioinformatics: Big Data in Genomics and Medicine"

13.04.2018 | Event News

Unique scope of UV LED technologies and applications presented in Berlin: ICULTA-2018

12.04.2018 | Event News

 
Latest News

Supersonic waves may help electronics beat the heat

18.05.2018 | Power and Electrical Engineering

Keeping a Close Eye on Ice Loss

18.05.2018 | Information Technology

CrowdWater: An App for Flood Research

18.05.2018 | Information Technology

VideoLinks
Science & Research
Overview of more VideoLinks >>>