Research published today, Thursday 7 October 2010, in New Journal of Physics (co-owned by the Institute of Physics and German Physical Society), details how researchers from Trinity College Dublin have analysed data and identified betting trends during the 2007-08 Champions' League Tournament.
Using a complete dataset from Betfair.com, drawn from bets made during every game of the Tournament, the researchers have identified changes in the market odds which reflect real-time match events. The market odds are seen to fluctuate in response to events occurring on the pitch such as goals scored.
However, comparing the behaviour of Betfair.com gamblers to traders on the stock market, the researchers were particularly interested to analyse the activity of gamblers during half-time.
Of interest, because, unlike any moment on the stock market, football gamblers are (more often than not) free of news from the game during half-time. Gamblers are left to their own devices which, the researchers suggest, is akin to identifying the complex interactions of stock market traders.
Stephen Hardiman from the School of Physics at Trinity College Dublin, says, "Such a clear elimination of external news influences would be difficult to achieve in the case of stock market prices or foreign exchange rates."
The researchers show that even during half-time, market fluctuations persist and exhibit, what economists call, 'long-range volatility correlations'. They also find that there is more trading on outcomes which have small odds, suggesting gamblers are more inclined to trade bets on the favourite to win.
"One might assume that memory of a team's past glories, media speculation over the health of key players, or just an overwhelming desire to see your own team win could bias a gambler's judgment.
"Gambling markets and financial markets have much in common, but possess unique differences. What we learn from gamblers may provide insight into the equally complex world of finance."
The researchers' paper can be downloaded for free from Thursday 7 October 2010 here: http://iopscience.iop.org/1367-2630/12/10/105001/fulltext as part of a Focus Issue on Statistical Physics Modelling in Economics and Finance.
The complete Focus Issue can be found here: http://iopscience.iop.org/1367-2630/focus/Focus%20on%20Statistical%20Physics%20Modelling%20in%20Economics%20and%20Finance
Joe Winters | EurekAlert!
Europe's microtechnology industry is attuned to growth
10.03.2017 | IVAM Fachverband für Mikrotechnik
Preferential trade agreements enhance global trade at the expense of its resilience
17.02.2017 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Astronomers from Bonn and Tautenburg in Thuringia (Germany) used the 100-m radio telescope at Effelsberg to observe several galaxy clusters. At the edges of these large accumulations of dark matter, stellar systems (galaxies), hot gas, and charged particles, they found magnetic fields that are exceptionally ordered over distances of many million light years. This makes them the most extended magnetic fields in the universe known so far.
The results will be published on March 22 in the journal „Astronomy & Astrophysics“.
Galaxy clusters are the largest gravitationally bound structures in the universe. With a typical extent of about 10 million light years, i.e. 100 times the...
Researchers at the Goethe University Frankfurt, together with partners from the University of Tübingen in Germany and Queen Mary University as well as Francis Crick Institute from London (UK) have developed a novel technology to decipher the secret ubiquitin code.
Ubiquitin is a small protein that can be linked to other cellular proteins, thereby controlling and modulating their functions. The attachment occurs in many...
In the eternal search for next generation high-efficiency solar cells and LEDs, scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory and their partners are creating...
Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are less stable. Now researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have, for the first time ever, produced a composite material combining silicon nanosheets and a polymer that is both UV-resistant and easy to process. This brings the scientists a significant step closer to industrial applications like flexible displays and photosensors.
Silicon nanosheets are thin, two-dimensional layers with exceptional optoelectronic properties very similar to those of graphene. Albeit, the nanosheets are...
Enzymes behave differently in a test tube compared with the molecular scrum of a living cell. Chemists from the University of Basel have now been able to simulate these confined natural conditions in artificial vesicles for the first time. As reported in the academic journal Small, the results are offering better insight into the development of nanoreactors and artificial organelles.
Enzymes behave differently in a test tube compared with the molecular scrum of a living cell. Chemists from the University of Basel have now been able to...
20.03.2017 | Event News
14.03.2017 | Event News
07.03.2017 | Event News
24.03.2017 | Materials Sciences
24.03.2017 | Physics and Astronomy
24.03.2017 | Physics and Astronomy