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Volcanic eruptions’ effect on global climate change

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24.06.2004

Including the atmospheric effects from volcanic eruptions in general circulation models may be the most important factor in improving the accuracy of long-term climate simulations. Vyushin et al. analyzed general circulation model estimates for the 20th century climate and found that volcanic eruptions, rather than the manmade effects from increasing greenhouse gas and aerosol levels, are the most significant factor in determining long-range correlations of surface air temperature.

The authors tested more than 30 land and oceanic sites indicative of global climate change, using a full range of manmade and natural climate change factors, including the effects from enhanced greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, solar radiation, and volcanic eruptions, and found that the simulations containing volcanic effects most closely matched the observed long-term behavior of surface temperatures, which is a vital scaling factor used in climate model predictions.

Title: Volcanic forcing improves atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model scaling performance

Dmitry Vyushin | Source: Geophysical Research Letters
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