In reality change is the norm along the coast, and although nothing is certain, a warming climate could mean quicker or more significant change over the next few centuries.
Scientists at RENCI and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill use the latest modeling techniques and high performance computing power to understand how expected increases in sea level over the next 100 years could affect coastal communities, wildlife and the coastline itself.
Most scientists believe that melt water from glaciers, the Greenland ice sheet and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, along with thermal expansion from warming oceans, will raise sea levels by one-half to 1 meter (1.6 to 3.2 feet) over the next century and by 1 meter to 2 meters (6.5 feet) over the next 200 years.
If that happens, North Carolina’s coast will change dramatically by 2100 or 2200, according to Tom Shay, a UNC-Chapel Hill marine scientist who conducts research with the UNC Institute for the Environment, the UNC department of marine sciences and UNC’s Center for the Study of Natural Hazards and Disasters.
“Some areas of the Outer Banks are only a few meters above sea level now, and there will be an increased tidal range and larger areas inundated by tides,” said Shay. With deeper water in the sounds, storm wave heights would increase as well, he said.
Some land areas, such as parts of the Albemarle and Pamlico peninsulas, will become submerged regardless of storms or high tides, said Shay. Coastal estuaries and the marine and plant life they support also might change due to the influx of higher salinity ocean water.
If sea level rises by a meter, “we will see higher tides, higher tidal velocities and tidal inundation every day,” said Shay. “And we’ll have a different shoreline.”
Shay uses the ADCIRC coastal storm surge modeling software and the SWAN (for Simulating WAves Nearshore) wave modeling software to create new “What If” models, showing how a major storm could affect the coast if sea levels were higher. The work complements work done at RENCI, which uses ADCIRC and SWAN to compute thousands of different possible storm scenarios. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) uses the RENCI model output to develop new Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) for coastal North Carolina as part of the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program.
Shay’s work zeroes in on one storm: Isabel, which made landfall in North Carolina in 2003 as a Category 2 hurricane. Using data on coastal topography and bathymetry compiled for the floodplain mapping modeling effort, Shay models the storm at current sea levels and at sea levels ranging from .5 to 2 meters higher.
Although his simulations show more pronounced storm surge and flooding during the hypothetical Hurricane Isabels, Shay stressed that the results depict a possible future, not a certainty.
“There are a lot of unknowns and uncertainties,” he said. “A warming ocean will cause some sea level rise just because of thermal expansion, but we don’t know how fast the ocean will warm or how fast the Greenland ice will melt or whether the West Antarctic ice sheet will melt. All those things have a range of possible outcomes and we want to understand as many of the possible outcomes as we can.”
Rising seas and changing risks“We are looking at the changes in risk associated with these storms—particularly risks from waves and surge—while making various assumptions about the future climate, such as increases in sea level, increasing rates of sea level rise and increased storm intensity,” said Blanton.
The work, funded by the North Carolina’s Floodplain Mapping Program, uses the same datasets as the floodplain modeling project and data from Applied Research Associates on probable hurricanes that could head toward North Carolina over the next 100 years. Blanton then uses that data to generate probable hurricane and severe storm events under different conditions that could be affected by climate change, such as higher sea levels, increased storm intensities and changes in the frequencies of storms.
The work will harness the power of a RENCI supercomputer to run about 2,000 individual storm simulations in six different climate scenarios, according to Blanton. Each simulation set will be crunched into statistical analyses that will help to clarify how coastal risks change under each climate scenario.
The end product, he said, will be a scientific evaluation of the risk of living on the coast—whether economic risk, risk to infrastructure or risk to lives—under changed conditions, which planners, emergency managers, scientists and policymakers will then be able to compare to their current understanding of coastal risks.
“With an understanding of not only the flood hazard data and the risk data but also of the uncertainty that goes along with that data—because the uncertainty can be quite high when your talking about a 100-year future climate—we hope to be able to inform the discussion on policy at the state, regional and maybe down at the county level as to what possible future risks may be,” said Blanton.
Karen Green | Newswise Science News
Further information:
http://www.renci.org
Further reports about: > ADCIRC > Antarctic Predators > Antarctic ice > Antarctic ice sheet > Coastal Ocean Science > Greenland ice > RENCI > SWAN > floodplain > future climate > ice sheet > sea level > sea level rise > sea snails > thermal expansion > tropical storm
Hurricane Harvey: Dutch-Texan research shows most fatalities occurred outside flood zones
19.04.2018 | European Geosciences Union
Root exudates affect soil stability, water repellency
18.04.2018 | American Society of Agronomy
Study published in the journal ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces is the outcome of an international effort that included teams from Dresden and Berlin in Germany, and the US.
Scientists at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) together with colleagues from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin (HZB) and the University of Virginia...
Novel highly efficient and brilliant gamma-ray source: Based on model calculations, physicists of the Max PIanck Institute for Nuclear Physics in Heidelberg propose a novel method for an efficient high-brilliance gamma-ray source. A giant collimated gamma-ray pulse is generated from the interaction of a dense ultra-relativistic electron beam with a thin solid conductor. Energetic gamma-rays are copiously produced as the electron beam splits into filaments while propagating across the conductor. The resulting gamma-ray energy and flux enable novel experiments in nuclear and fundamental physics.
The typical wavelength of light interacting with an object of the microcosm scales with the size of this object. For atoms, this ranges from visible light to...
Stable joint cartilage can be produced from adult stem cells originating from bone marrow. This is made possible by inducing specific molecular processes occurring during embryonic cartilage formation, as researchers from the University and University Hospital of Basel report in the scientific journal PNAS.
Certain mesenchymal stem/stromal cells from the bone marrow of adults are considered extremely promising for skeletal tissue regeneration. These adult stem...
In the fight against cancer, scientists are developing new drugs to hit tumor cells at so far unused weak points. Such a “sore spot” is the protein complex...
In an article that appears in the journal “Review of Modern Physics”, researchers at the Laboratory for Attosecond Physics (LAP) assess the current state of the field of ultrafast physics and consider its implications for future technologies.
Physicists can now control light in both time and space with hitherto unimagined precision. This is particularly true for the ability to generate ultrashort...
Anzeige
Anzeige
Invitation to the upcoming "Current Topics in Bioinformatics: Big Data in Genomics and Medicine"
13.04.2018 | Event News
Unique scope of UV LED technologies and applications presented in Berlin: ICULTA-2018
12.04.2018 | Event News
IWOLIA: A conference bringing together German Industrie 4.0 and French Industrie du Futur
09.04.2018 | Event News
19.04.2018 | Materials Sciences
Electromagnetic wizardry: Wireless power transfer enhanced by backward signal
19.04.2018 | Physics and Astronomy
Ultrafast electron oscillation and dephasing monitored by attosecond light source
19.04.2018 | Physics and Astronomy