Administration (NOAA). Perlwitz is lead author of the study.While average surface temperatures have been increasing globally, the interior of Antarctica has exhibited a unique cooling trend during the austral (Southern
These circulation patterns are collectively known as a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, or SAM.
The scientists find that, as ozone levels recover, the lower stratosphere over the polar region will absorb more ultraviolet radiation from the sun. This will cause air temperatures roughly 10-20 kilometers (6-12 miles) above Earth's surface to rise by as much as 9 degrees Celsius, reducing the strong north-south temperature gradient that currently favors the positive phase of SAM.The new study also indicates that ozone-hole recovery would weaken the intense
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide will be the main driver for strengthening the positive phase of SAM.
"In running our model simulations, we assumed that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide would double over the next 40 years and then slowly taper off. If human activities cause more rapid increases in greenhouse gases, or if we continue to produce these gases for a longer period of time, then the positive SAM may dominate year-round and dwarf any climatic effects caused by ozone recovery," says Perlwitz.Perlwitz of the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental
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